Conway7305 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:41 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: I may be wrong but those late December runs weren’t really focused on one threat. This is obviously keying on one specific SV. Expand I would love the snow totals to start looking like your profile image. That would be incredible. What storm was that by the way? Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18z GEFS low locations. High pressure pressing in from MN, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:57 PM, nj2va said: 18z GEFS low locations. High pressure pressing in from MN, too. Expand Mouth of the bay. That is exactly what I want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 10:24 PM, osfan24 said: I'd also rather see a legit storm rather than an overrunning event. I'm a bit concerned about that, but not upset with where all the precip is sitting. Pretty confident it would end up coming north. Expand overrunning can be very legit here. it's one of our more productive setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 11:50 PM, StantonParkHoya said: This will be a Saturday night deal if it keeps speeding up. Several inches by lunch Sunday at this point.“Weekend Rule”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Things are bound to change...or not...but this is pretty good agreement between the 2 major globals. EPS has the same cluster of tucked lows as the gefs. Lets let this this slowly juice up and amp up over the next few days of model runs...no big jumps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I’m all in on the Sunday-ish storm. Would be a solid way to end an otherwise miserable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wouldn't the potential Sunday-Monday storm be the first storm this whole season to come out of the Southern US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:03 AM, Climate175 said: Wouldn't the potential Sunday-Monday storm be the first storm this whole season to come out of the Southern US? Expand Pretty sure Dec 8-9 and Jan 4th did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:04 AM, Cobalt said: Pretty sure Dec 8-9 and Jan 4th did Expand Really? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 12:50 AM, poolz1 said: Things are bound to change...or not...but this is pretty good agreement between the 2 major globals. EPS has the same cluster of tucked lows as the gefs. Lets let this this slowly juice up and amp up over the next few days of model runs...no big jumps... Expand You have to love where things stand with the ensembles of the Canadian, US, and Euro models. Great agreement being 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:09 AM, nj2va said: You have to love where things stand with the ensembles of the Canadian, US, and Euro models. Great agreement being 6 days out. Expand yeah.. fast forward 3 days and we will be cut out of the picture.. just the way this winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:11 AM, PCT_ATC said: yeah.. fast forward 3 days and we will be cut out of the picture.. just the way this winter has gone. Expand Not likely unless this disappears to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:09 AM, nj2va said: You have to love where things stand with the ensembles of the Canadian, US, and Euro models. Great agreement being 6 days out. Expand We are right in that window (6 days out) where the big ones are sniffed out. Very encouraging to have such good agreement... I agree with PSU, sub 980 looping just off the coast or bust...Bring it home right or just get on with spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:11 AM, PCT_ATC said: yeah.. fast forward 3 days and we will be cut out of the picture.. just the way this winter has gone. Expand Thanks for this brilliant analysis you’ve brought to the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:16 AM, Jandurin said: Don't think there's been this much agreement this whole winter on a big storm Expand Pretty sure there was more for the before christmas storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:15 AM, poolz1 said: We are right in that window (6 days out) where the big ones are sniffed out. Very encouraging to have such good agreement... I agree with PSU, sub 980 looping just off the coast or bust...Bring it home right or just get on with spring! Expand Even a progressive track would work if we get in the CCB shield. 2" QPF is unlikely unless there is a stall but 1-1.5" is certainly possible. The good thing is ALL globals and ens have trended colder in the mid levels leading in. That's a big deal at this lead. Have some room to spare @ 850 is almost a requirement in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I don't want a flush hit on the 0z GFS. Deadly serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:22 AM, stormtracker said: I don't want a flush hit on the 0z GFS. Deadly serious. Expand I wish I could like this more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:22 AM, stormtracker said: I don't want a flush hit on the 0z GFS. Deadly serious. Expand Violently agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:22 AM, stormtracker said: I don't want a flush hit on the 0z GFS. Deadly serious. Expand Agree. It will also help to prevent the inevitable posts of “UGHHHHH GFS only gives me 10” storm cancel” if runs right now show 15”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 But for real yall..think about it...if the 0z shows a flush hit now...expectations will be set..and every single run after that will be the dreaded "step back" blah blah blah. Let's do this the right way...let's build up to it instead of "stepping back". Here's to a close miss to the south tonight. Just keep it close until say Wednesday night or even Thursday 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:31 AM, stormtracker said: But for real yall..think about it...if the 0z shows a flush hit now...expectations will be set..and every single run after that will be the dreaded "step back" blah blah blah. Let's do this the right way...let's build up to it instead of "stepping back". Here's to a close miss to the south tonight. Just keep it close until say Wednesday night or even Thursday 12z Expand And then let March climo setup that North trend. We have Daylight Savings Time, March Madness Selection Sunday, and if it really slows down the Superstorm's 25th anniversary is on Monday. Plenty of time to think of names if this one finally goes through for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:22 AM, stormtracker said: I don't want a flush hit on the 0z GFS. Deadly serious. Expand you will sleep better with a flush hit...then a whiff..trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:31 AM, stormtracker said: But for real yall..think about it...if the 0z shows a flush hit now...expectations will be set..and every single run after that will be the dreaded "step back" blah blah blah. Let's do this the right way...let's build up to it instead of "stepping back". Here's to a close miss to the south tonight. Just keep it close until say Wednesday night or even Thursday 12z Expand weve already had our flush hit at 6z....now we just need improvements to get back to that level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:43 AM, Ji said: you will sleep better with a flush hit...then a whiff..trust me Expand We know how it worked for us when we were very close or even in the bullseye in March 13-14 2017. March climo also probably favors a shift north anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:45 AM, Cobalt said: We know how it worked for us when we were very close or even in the bullseye in March 13-14 2017. March climo also probably favors a shift north anyways. Expand 2006 had a Major -NAO similar to this in March and everything was suppressed-no north trend that month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 WxBell finally updated its GEFS meteogram. Nice step up in snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:50 AM, Ji said: 2006 had a Major -NAO similar to this in March and everything was suppressed-no north trend that month Expand Interesting. Only time I can recall a continuous shift south up to game time was with a -EPO dominated pattern (early March 2014). Certainly something of note Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On 3/6/2018 at 1:45 AM, Cobalt said: We know how it worked for us when we were very close or even in the bullseye in March 13-14 2017. March climo also probably favors a shift north anyways. Expand That was a super depressing storm. The football got pulled out 24 hours away. But we didn’t have a -NAO or any kind of blocking, if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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