yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Is that right? 1-2" on the TT maps for N VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Really starting to see everything come together between hrs 39-45. Jet streak entering Mid Atlantic with strong ascent through left exit region. Precip will likely explode over NE MD to SE PA. Going to be another solid hit for that area. Some snow trying to breakout to SW as well with the 500 evolution. Got started slightly later, but should still yield a pretty good hit for NE crew. . What are the chances it continues to build southwest? Or are we locked in at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: I think we are going to see that farther off the coast as it swings through. Was just going to type the above and then the model updated to 45 hr. Might have your save. Hah! It certainly tries. The Trof was better but the heights in front allowed the SLP to escape a little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Is that right? 1-2" on the TT maps for N VA?Pretty sure it comes from the front end before the costal gets together . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: So thats my first watch of the year. the early december snow was only an advisory even though i picked up 6" I'll take it! Whoa nice. Didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Pretty sure it comes from the front end before the costal gets together . That is what it looks like to me but I'll take it, especially if we can get some wraparound or maybe even get some further SW building from the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 LWX afternoon disco Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 311 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure this evening will give way to an approaching low pressure system on Tuesday. A coastal low is then expected to develop along the Mid-Atlantic coastline Tuesday night, before moving northeastward away from the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure will return for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Mostly sunny skies this afternoon will give way to some increasing high clouds during the evening and overnight as a warm front approaches from the west. Light precipitation will begin to encroach the Allegheny Front towards Tuesday morning, but areas are expected to remain dry during the overnight hours. Lows tonight will range from the mid 20s to low 30s, mildest in the urban centers. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Southwest flow and warm air advection will be ongoing Tuesday morning, and this will lead to intermittent periods of light mixed precipitation across portions of the Allegheny/Potomac Highlands. Precipitation will move into the area around sunrise and move eastward during the morning hours. At onset, a mix of light snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely across areas where a Winter Weather Advisory was issued. As temperatures warm through the morning, precipitation will change to rain or freezing rain, and then mainly rain by the afternoon. The exception will be the higher elevations along and near the Allegheny Front where enough cold air may exist to keep light freezing rain through the day. The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until 6 PM for those locations. Elsewhere, mainly light rain is expected as precipitation moves eastward, although some light snow or sleet may mix in. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s. As the upper low digs towards the region Tuesday night, cyclogenesis will begin near the Outer Banks/VA Tidewater, with low pressure moving northeastward along the coastline during the day Wednesday. Track uncertainty still exists, in addition to uncertainty in thermal profiles, however, guidance has trended further west through the day today, increasing the potential for accumulating snow, especially across northeast Maryland. A mix of rain and snow, depending on thermal evolution will increase in coverage and intensity Tuesday night, and especially during the daytime hours Wednesday. Even with marginal boundary temperatures and increasing sun angle, with enough intensity, snow will still accumulate. The greatest potential for this is across northeast Maryland, especially towards the Mason Dixon Line, where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Mappyland cleaning up at 51 re snow accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Yeah I think it should actually show more precip for HoCo than 12z if it wasn’t for the mushroom cloud that is vaporizing all the precip. Baltimore looks wetter than 12z.Agree completely. What are your thoughts on this one? I’m thinking HoCo could still sneak a low end Advisory out of this one. The NE crew look prime at this point. Mappy WSW is becoming more imminent. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The NAM really nukes the NE corner of MD all the way up through NYC. Looks almost like a boxing day esque distribution of snow amounts obviously not as much, although boxing day didn't really get significant snow down through Cecil County IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: The NAM really nukes the NE corner of MD all the way up through NYC. Looks almost like a boxing day esque distribution of snow amounts, although boxing day didn't really get significant snow down through Cecil County IIRC. Yes but it shifted everything east... one more shift like that and Baltimore county is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What are the chances it continues to build southwest? Or are we locked in at this point?I think we’re seeing close to final evolution, but I wouldn’t completely rule out a tick SW. I think a chance at a low end Advisory south of I-70 is about 40%. 1-3” max. HoCo, Northern AA and NW MoCo still in game for an inch or two, but will be fairly minor with melt occurring during day on pavement. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Agree completely. What are your thoughts on this one? I’m thinking HoCo could still sneak a low end Advisory out of this one. The NE crew look prime at this point. Mappy WSW is becoming more imminent. . I want to believe but I’d like to see the globals corroborate. I believe the 3k NAM much more than the 12k and it looks pretty good so far but not as good as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 LWX has snow in their zones for a lot of us at least... so we shall see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I want to believe but I’d like to see the globals corroborate. I believe the 3k NAM much more than the 12k and it looks pretty good so far but not as good as 12z. Newbie question...What is causing the heights along the east coast the lower? That seems like the biggest change to me in allowing the coastal to run east on both NAMs before getting captured further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I mean, this looks pretty good for just southwest of Baltimore and on north, but very little wiggle room. A shift of 25 miles either way would have enormous impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Agree completely. What are your thoughts on this one? I’m thinking HoCo could still sneak a low end Advisory out of this one. The NE crew look prime at this point. Mappy WSW is becoming more imminent. I'd like to see another shift SW from the current NAM run to be more sure of a WSW level event. The gradient is extremely close on that run, to the point that a few miles makes a difference between 6"+ and < 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, osfan24 said: I mean, this looks pretty good for just southwest of Baltimore and on north, but very little wiggle room. A shift of 25 miles either way would have enormous impacts. Wow... nearly 2" into DCA? Something must be wrong I would take that and run if it were to be correct, decent snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 It is pans out like the NAM depicts it... that would be one crazy cutoff. Basically have only 3 counties in MD that get the good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 NAM3 looks considerably better for those in between DC and Baltimore, as the CCB precip makes it back into that region Wednesday morning. But this run has an initial sfc low moving north, and it then redevelops it back to the southeast, which looks odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Oh man let the 3k NAM be right for Wednesday morning. That CCB would absolutely RIP for a few hours. The soundings at 45-47 are O-face worthy. Just massive upward motion in the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I hate to go with the NAM, but it's the only model giving a foot of snow to Albany and Burlington. Thats what usually happens with these kind of setups, the coastal tuck is the only thing shunting the moisture feed to those areas for 48hrs straight. NAM might be wrong on the southwest corner though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3k with the death band of all death bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I hate these kinds of storms. I would bet on this coming together too late and missing this region mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 3k with the death band of all death bands. Is this the kind of situation that would have the convection rob the moisture from the snowy side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, PhineasC said: I hate these kinds of storms. I would bet on this coming together too late and missing this region mostly. Yep, but the 3K is so tantalizingly close that I can't look away. Almost gets accumulating snow down to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I hate these kinds of storms. I would bet on this coming together too late and missing this region mostly. But the 3K NAM absolutely nails you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: You're very nice...a good man and a true gentleman, but we're at the point where martial law has been declared in this subforum and it is every weenie for themselves in this catastrophically awful winter. Guard your home lest someone steal your snow. @WxWatcher007 I am in! I will hold southwest from here in Catonsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 When's the last time one of these Miller B storms showing "NE MD" getting into WSW snows actually panned out? I bet the media will go nuts on this and show PHL getting 20" and they will get like 7". Just wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Fozz said: But the 3K NAM absolutely nails you. LOL yeah that trumps decades of climo experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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