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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Most GEFS members are west of the Op. Not sure if thats a legit signal given we’re only 48-54 hrs out, but it’s intereting.

Does this mean a cleaner handoff to the coastal at a better latitude for us?  Or a better h5 location?  

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Waiting for the 12z... but both 00z WRF-ARW runs looked nice at hr 48 as the run ended

  The 12z NMMB and primary ARW runs are both on mag.ncep.noaa.gov, and both look awful with no precip shield extending back to the west, for what they're worth.

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

  The 12z NMMB and primary ARW runs are both on mag.ncep.noaa.gov, and both look awful with no precip shield extending back to the west, for what they're worth.

So, the 00z runs of the WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 on TT were better than the 12z runs... am I getting that right?  As in the 12z runs are worse than the 00z runs TT shows

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6 minutes ago, Leaking Gut said:

Are there some extreme outliers that are causing the mean to increase?  Or is snow possible for DC metro?

Here's the QPF panels for all the members. Make up your own "potential snow" based on your take of surface/mid level temps. My calculation is 4:1 at best for anywhere south of I70 with the heavy precip solutions only. Light qpf = 0:1 ratios. Anywhere that gets 1"+ of QPF could potentially get 6-8:1 at best (probably closer to 6:1). Just my take and guess.  

vHRhXIf.jpg

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10 minutes ago, yoda said:

So, the 00z runs of the WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 on TT were better than the 12z runs... am I getting that right?  As in the 12z runs are worse than the 00z runs TT shows

      Yes, the 12z ARW and NMMB have lousy precip shields.   Can't get the ARW2 on the mag.ncep.noaa.gov site.    Those models are actually available by 15z, but TT don't run the graphics until a couple of hours later.

 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro puts NE MD in the game this run. Notable short lead shift but won't make too many friends outside of NE MD. 

Yea, it now looks like the NAMs looked yesterday.  It's playing catch up it seems...trending with everything else but 2 cycles behind the game.  I have a weird feeling the more amplified solutions might be onto something here.  Still might not be enough to get area's southwest of Baltimore into anything significant but everything has been ticking west and the models that were really far to the east (euro) are starting to catch on and made a pretty significant jump this morning.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea, it now looks like the NAMs looked yesterday.  It's playing catch up it seems...trending with everything else but 2 cycles behind the game.  I have a weird feeling the more amplified solutions might be onto something here.  Still might not be enough to get area's southwest of Baltimore into anything significant but everything has been ticking west and the models that were really far to the east (euro) are starting to catch on and made a pretty significant jump this morning.  

Euro snow maps now look exactly like the ones my mind drew up a few days ago. lol

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17 minutes ago, high risk said:

      Yes, the 12z ARW and NMMB have lousy precip shields.   Can't get the ARW2 on the mag.ncep.noaa.gov site.    Those models are actually available by 15z, but TT don't run the graphics until a couple of hours later.

 

ARW2 is really nice to say the least, lol.

wrf-arw2_asnow_neus_48.png

& im skeptical the cutoff is that sharp

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