psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: was jan 2005 a miller B. I rememember it started off in modeling as a Miller A lol....then it became a northern stream event but i remember scoring 4 or so inches. Of course New England got nuked yes, from range it looked like an STJ dominant system that phased...then it lost the stj component and became a clipper that redeveloped and bombed. We did about as well as possible given that setup with a general 3-5" across northern VA and DC area and 4-8" across Maryland. Still many complained because New England got nuked and we only got a high end advisory/low end warning level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, LP08 said: Transfer to OBX, a little north of the NAMs at 45, but a stronger coastal early on That's good news, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Transfer to OBX, a little north of the NAMs at 45, but a stronger coastal early on Trough looks to go neutral a little faster than 6z, probably too little too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not going to happen for us. I've already accepted our fate. There's but only so much trending at this lead time and I think we've seen the peak. If I was in Baltimore and NE MD, I'd say hold on...hold on...I'm not being pessimistic, I'm just being real. Our best hope is to score on the backside and get a slushy inch or two. I dont think DC is totally out of the game yet. Those of us to the west are done though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: That's good news, right? North: no. Stronger coastal, maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, yoda said: That's good news, right? Yes. Implying quicker transfer and weaker primary....HR 54 looks pretty nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: its not unreasonable to see this shift a little s/sw, as the couple runs have shown that. true, but i'm basing it off of what's currently depicted. if it trends south, yes, we will be in the game. for now, it looks like a northeast maryland/bmore/canton/ripken-ville and north setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Hmmm. Interesting expansion of the precip shield to the west this run at 54. Maybe some flurries even out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: North: no. Stronger coastal, maybe He said slightly North of the NAM so I was guessing it was ok still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GFS is definitely a bit better, especially for the Baltimore folks. Really need that 500 energy to tilt more negative and close off quicker. GFS has gotten schooled twice by the NAM this winter thought so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Yes. Implying quicker transfer and weaker primary....HR 54 looks pretty nice... Maybe and Inverted trof feature through DC....that kind of analysis is above my pay grade. CCB in SE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5H closes off further North than the NAM, hence the CCB being further north. Need that off the Delmarva and the GFS does it off central Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Didn't see mention of it, but 12z RGEM h5 at 48 looks decent, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GFS seems like it (hopefully) is coming around to the NAM. Hopefully the NAM trends a little bit earlier/south and DC can get in on some decent action and the heaviest slips just a bit more southwest to really hammer Baltimore. I agree with PSUHoffman that I want to see everyone cash in. It's been a brutal winter in Baltimore but arguably still worse in the DC area, and every time we get a huge snowstorm, Baltimore tends to always end up with a bit more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Best lift on GFS is north of NAM’s by 50-75 miles. Advisory snows for Baltimore to MD line. Winter Storm warning into SE PA. Pretty close to something more significant. Snow tv south of I-70 latitude. Maybe an inch in spots across Eastern Howard and Northern AA counties. Starting to see how this will evolve. We’re closing inside 36 hours when this all goes down. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: GFS seems like it (hopefully) is coming around to the NAM. Hopefully the NAM trends a little bit earlier/south and DC can get in on some decent action and the heaviest slips just a bit more southwest to really hammer Baltimore. I agree with PSUHoffman that I want to see everyone cash in. It's been a brutal winter in Baltimore but arguably still worse in the DC area, and every time we get a huge snowstorm, Baltimore tends to always end up with a bit more snow. qpf looks to bring eastern shore into the game. slight tick sw as I was suggesting. to me the LP seemed to be a little better organized early on after transfer which helped NW/SW folks a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 37 minutes ago, pasnownut said: yeah i was wondering where you were..... sick. busy week at work. but keeping my eye on it. GFS is borderline warning event IMBY, but that gradient is super tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, LP08 said: 5H closes off further North than the NAM, hence the CCB being further north. Need that off the Delmarva and the GFS does it off central Jersey I gather in order for that to happen we need more digging from the shortwave? Stronger block? Or h5 to go negative earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I gather in order for that to happen we need more digging from the shortwave? Stronger block? Or h5 to go negative earlier? All 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I gather in order for that to happen we need more digging from the shortwave? Stronger block? Or h5 to go negative earlier? #s 2 and 3 yes. Earlier/cleaner transfer is prerequisit for miller B's to work for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: sick. busy week at work. but keeping my eye on it. GFS is borderline warning event IMBY, but that gradient is super tight. well i hope this makes you feel a bit better. get well soon..its gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Crazy thread here Twitter , you have to go to the thread to see what I mean. I think the basis of HM's tweet was to suggest to use each model based on its inherent physics, with this system coming up maybe the NAM might be more realistic. Thats my read on it but could be wrong, certainly makes sense though. You be the judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z UKIE at 48 has 1000 mb SLP near tidewater VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Gefs with noticeable increase in qpf from 6z 12z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z GEFS snowfall mean 2 to 4 inches BWI and to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 members of the 12z GEFS through 84 hours have the 1 inch line near DC... 5 get the 2 inch line within 50 miles or so of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Most GEFS members are west of the Op. Not sure if thats a legit signal given we’re only 48-54 hrs out, but it’s intereting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Spent a couple of hours looking over the models and typing this up only to have it get buried within minutes as the NAM twins came out and upped the ante. So dammit I am going to repost it so hopefully more then just a handful of people can read my meaningless dribble. Apologies to those that have already suffered through it. 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Just some thoughts on the storm this Wed. and the possible impacts for DC/Balt. At this point I am sure most are of the opinion that any somewhat meaningful snowfall will be confined to extreme NE MD at best with the cities possible getting some mercy flakes or trace. I am of the opinion though that the odds are somewhat favorable that in fact we do better then current models are projecting. Obviously Baltimore would have better chances then DC, its just the nature of the beast with the type of system we are dealing with where extra latitude is a factor. Normally when it comes to Miller B's we are SOL as the transfer from the primary over to the coastal occurs through or even north of our region. But if there is any setup we are going to score in it is this one where we see the secondary low pressure initiate far to our south as opposed to the typical off the VA/MD waters we see. This in my mind is important because we are giving the coastal low that much more time to develop as it runs up the coast to our region as opposed to hoping for a 6 hr bombegenisis directly off our coast. The big reason we are seeing the NE solutions for snowfall is that we see a lackadaisical transfer from the primary low in the lakes to our coastal low making it just a touch too late for our region as CCB (cold conveyor belt) snows form just as the coastal is exiting our region. Now the big thing to watch for in regards to the progression of the transfer is the strength of the lows (lakes and coastal). We originally start with the stronger primary (lakes) and with a much weaker secondary (coastal). Now as the transfer occurs the primary will continually weaken and the secondary will continue to gain strength. Only once we see the secondary become the stronger feature will we begin to see CCB snows start developing. And at this point even with the farther south low initiation we see such a slow transfer that we don't see this flip with the lows until the coastal is off our shores as it then begins to rapidly intensify. Again this is what we typically see when it comes to Miller B's which is pretty much a no win scenario for the cities. So this is very plausible. But from flipping through a bunch of models and their different runs I do believe they all may be moving towards a slightly different solution which in fact would put the DC/Balt corridor in play. Now I have to speak in generalities here because the models have been somewhat jumpy and back in forth with the features in play so I am not going to be citing specifics. But the general broad overall trends suggest to me we may actually see a quicker deepening of our coastal low farther south then currently projected. This would hopefully mean that we see the coastal surpass the primary in strength sooner/farther south allowing the CCB to begin forming sooner and in time for our region. Now part of my reasoning involves the Meso models which I tend to shy away from at longer ranges. But in this case they may be appropriate. What I have seen is that generally they seem to be more aggressive then the globals on a quicker strengthening of our coastal farther south. Now mesos can get a little wonky at range on occasion as well as be overly aggressive with explosive development of lows. But with what I am concerned with and/or looking at is the initial early stages of the development of the low so I am fairly comfortable with that. And in fact they may have a better handle on that period of time with their finer resolution then the globals. Now all that said, I would still normally keep my mouth shut because I have been burned far to often by them. But when I now am starting to see some small hints from the globals to a quicker intensification farther south then that gets my attention. If the current general setup stays roughly the same on the models (never a sure thing) and in fact we do see a quicker intensification of the coastal (as the mesos suggest) then I have to believe at least Balt, if not DC as well, actually is in play for something more then what the models currently suggest. I for one will be watching the globals with interest the next couple runs to see if they actually start noticeably picking up on this quicker intensification instead of just hinting at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Waiting for the 12z... but both 00z WRF-ARW runs looked nice at hr 48 as the run ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 How dare you fill this thread up with legit analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.