psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Indeed. Miller Bust Sometimes I'm joking about being fringed. Other times I'm just worried about where gets the "bonus" vs just good totals. But last night I really truly did have a bad feeling that the whole system seemed just a little bit east of guidance and knowing how these go...and how any delay in the development process can drastically shift that ccb east..I legitimately was worried this would happen even though all the guidance at the time looked great. These do this to others too. Places just west of philly were supposed to get 12" from dec 2000 and got nothing. Philly was the back edge with 8". The 2015 storm screwed NJ and the western side of NYC. Supposed to get 20-30" and got 2-4". It's just we were the back edge this time but these late developing miller b storms do this. Because if the development process is delayed just a little bit or east of guidance just a bit it has huge cascading effects since the storm goes through rapid intensifying and then expansion of the precip on the west side. Small delays have a bigger impact then a mature storm coming from the southwest with gulf moisture feed. Our climo with miller bs is better then D.C. Some of the biggest storms here were miller bs. We sometimes can win. But I will never feel safe with a miller b until it's snowing and radar shows the ccb on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i’ve had 1.8” of snow for the entire winter. that's actually less that what i would have expected out there. tough winter for sure, but maybe sunday/monday produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snows O's & Bohs Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Went from nothing to big fat flakes to some steadier snowtv here in Towson over the past half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Whoa.... snow is picking up again. WxUSAF was right. Glad I cleared my board. Nice little surprise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Wife says it’s snowing hard in Columbia now. Mist here in greenbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Snow TV in Ellicott City. Flake size is tiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Whoa.... snow is picking up again. WxUSAF was right. Glad I cleared my board. Nice little surprise here. It's not really a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Whoa.... snow is picking up again. WxUSAF was right. Glad I cleared my board. Nice little surprise here. dude check the radar to your west. Fun stuff coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 37 minutes ago, wxtrix said: i’ve had 1.8” of snow for the entire winter. MIRACLE! I finally found someone with less snow than me. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just some light snow here. Saying we picked up an inch is pushing it. Was just down in Hampstead where a pretty good burst was going on. Looks like a solid 1.5 there on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Just some light snow here. Saying we picked up an inch is pushing it. Was just down in Hampstead where a pretty good burst was going on. Looks like a solid 1.5 there on the ground. Yea this wasn't our storm. And now it looks like we get stuck in subsidence between the ccb and the band with the upper low. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: If it’s just mist/drizzle then the rates aren’t heavy enough to overcome the marginal 850s. The models hinted on the 0 850 line being pretty close to your area right about now. I wouldn’t expect much more Exactly, rates picked up and we’re back to big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Nice band developing along US 50...some heavy returns showing up which tells me it's rimmed snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Snow mixing in in greenbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea this wasn't our storm. And now it looks like we get stuck in subsidence between the ccb and the band with the upper low. Oh well. I know but this one is getting to me. I really bought into the positive trends early yesterday. As I type snow is picking up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 https://giphy.com/gifs/friends-2OP9jbHFlFPW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Left Columbia 9:45 with drizzle. Hit Route 29/west side of Columbia and drizzle turned to snow. Snowing nicely in Pikesville right now but roads just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Guys it’s raining here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Radar looks like its lightening up in southern Delaware and moving north NW. This storm seems to have a very narrow spot where things are good. Too far west, you get nothing, too far east, you get rain. This one always felt like a north NJ, southern NY state special. Very similar to how things played out last March. Maybe a bit more snow a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Guys it’s raining here Drove from Havre De Grace up into Delaware, about 20 miles up route 40, definitely much warmer down there. Not sure if its the bay that does it? Once you get into cecil county, add about an inch or two to the grass, and far more slush on the street. Also shave a degree off the temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I know but this one is getting to me. I really bought into the positive trends early yesterday. As I type snow is picking up here. I'm with you. All the others the last 2 years didn't phase me. I knew it wasn't ours. I was stupid and let myself believe yesterday and so that makes this one hurt a bit. But I'll get over it. Now if march 12 goes down like the gfs shows right now with a close miss to the south then ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Drove from Havre De Grace up into Delaware, about 20 miles up route 40, definitely much warmer down there. Not sure if its the bay that does it? Once you get into cecil county, add about an inch or two to the grass, and far more slush on the street. Also shave a degree off the temp. Yep, the Bay is a massssssive oven. I’m sitting at 36F right at my dock. No bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Flakes mixing back in but not expecting any additional accumulation. Looks like 1.5” will be the total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm with you. All the others the last 2 years didn't phase me. I knew it wasn't ours. I was stupid and let myself believe yesterday and so that makes this one hurt a bit. But I'll get over it. Now if march 12 goes down like the gfs shows right now with a close miss to the south then ugh. yesterday was your crossroads moment. Had all kinds of momentum from Euro and the NAMs...just needed that final push to the finish line...and it takes 2 step backwards. Welcome to my life...i was never in this...but i feel bad for you man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This feels a lot like "Snowquester" IMBY. It wasn't the worst bust ever in my area, but it had a lot of white rain after sunrise and a premature end. Totals are also similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Fozz said: This feels a lot like "Snowquester" IMBY. It wasn't the worst bust ever in my area, but it had a lot of white rain after sunrise and a premature end. Totals are also similar. Yea, what a way to commemorate the anniversary. It's a cursed day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea, what a way to commemorate the anniversary. It's a cursed day. lol... I didn't even notice it was the same date. Exactly 5 years. What a day. Difference is, that storm was much better for the interior (I recall WinterWxLuvr getting a foot of snow) and much worse for Philly and NYC, but for DC and Baltimore it was pretty much the same. ETA: Not to mention, this event also had the same nice trends leading up to it, only to get the rug pulled out from under at the very last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Fozz said: lol... I didn't even notice it was the same date. Exactly 5 years. What a day. Difference is, that storm was much better for the interior (I recall WinterWxLuvr getting a foot of snow) and much worse for Philly and NYC, but for DC and Baltimore it was pretty much the same. Was working in carroll county at the time. We spiked to 55 degrees that afternoon under full sun and I knew we were screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: lol... I didn't even notice it was the same date. Exactly 5 years. What a day. Difference is, that storm was much better for the interior (I recall WinterWxLuvr getting a foot of snow) and much worse for Philly and NYC, but for DC and Baltimore it was pretty much the same. Yep, I lived about 10 miles west of Winchester and woke up to about 12-14 inches of snow but roads were black top by early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Was working in carroll county at the time. We spiked to 55 degrees that afternoon under full sun and I knew we were screwed. Nawww, you have the wrong storm in mind. High that day was 35, I had 4.5" of wind driven snow, strong NE winds in that storm. I liked it IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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