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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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Half inch on grass here in Dale City brings me to 5 inches on the season. I have been pennying and nickeling my way thru the winter, lol. PSU wrote up an excellent post about climo. He suggested that 7 inches is an average snow season in this region, given the last 30 years. I am nearly there!

I am absolutely elated about what I got to enjoy tonight! Those aggregates were HUGE! Some of them were over two inches in diameter and the snow was heavy as heck!

This storm was a downright BLATANT overachiever!

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Just now, Interstate said:

Looking at latest model though... it looks like it might take the good stuff east.  I have 3-5 in my point in click for tomorrow and I just don't see that happening.

i'm definitely on the edge, but i would think the precip would fill in again towards the bmore to philly sector.

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Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
133 AM EST Wed Mar 07 2018

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN
SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE
ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BALTIMORE

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MARYLAND

...Anne Arundel County...
   Annapolis 1 NW         2.0  1135 PM  3/06  Trained Spotter         
   Bwi Airport            1.6   100 AM  3/07  Airport                 
   Crofton 1 SSE          1.5  1027 PM  3/06  NWS Employee            
   Riva 1 N               1.2  1026 PM  3/06  NWS Employee            

...Baltimore County...
   Long Green 2 NW        1.2  1030 PM  3/06  Trained Spotter         

...Baltimore City...
   Arlington 2 ESE        1.2  1150 PM  3/06  Broadcast Media         

...Harford County...
   Bel Air                2.8  1256 AM  3/07  County Emrg Mgmt        

...Howard County...
   Columbia 2 N             T   930 PM  3/06  Trained Spotter         

...Prince Georges County...
   Beltsville 1 S         0.8  1205 AM  3/07  NWS Employee            

VIRGINIA

...Arlington County...
   Ronald Reagan Washin   0.4  1232 AM  3/07  ASOS                    
   Reagan National Apt    0.4  1200 AM  3/07  Airport                 

...Loudoun County...
   Dulles International     T  1209 AM  3/07  Airport     
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12 minutes ago, mappy said:

Why do I have a warning? Radar is awful for me. Am I missing something?

Just woke up and don't like a thing I see with a quick glance at the models. Nam's just came in and everything is far to the east. I'll look a little more but I think we are possible SOL out our way.

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As far as the latest NAM's are concerned it looks as if everyone except for extreme NE MD and portions of the Eastern shore are out of the game for anything of significance except for maybe a mulch covering at best. CCB looks to develop to far to the east, impacting NE MD and north. Only hope for those west of that region are when the upper level energy swings through we will see some light precip break out through the Balt/DC region. Not even going to delve into the temp profile for that precip but radar returns on the NAM's is mostly wet until you get into the northern tier counties where possibly there could be a quick trace or so picked up in the favored colder regions.

Always am hesitant to buy into the models when they do a fairly significant shift west in guidance at the last minute because far to often I have seen them go right back to the originally crappy solution if not even worse. Thought/hoped  this might be different because the runs prior to the shift actually were in my mind hinting at this shift. Anyway, think I am pretty much done tracking this storm. Will continue to occasionally check radar hoping for a late save but at this point I think we are looking at a complete Fail (except for those who lucked into a little something earlier) for the DC/Balt region. 

Talley Ho! Onward to the next Fail.

eta: Congrats to those who picked up a little something on the initial slug of moisture!

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As far as the latest NAM's are concerned it looks as if everyone except for extreme NE MD and portions of the Eastern shore are out of the game for anything of significance except for maybe a mulch covering at best. CCB looks to develop to far to the east, impacting NE MD and north. Only hope for those west of that region are when the upper level energy swings through we will see some light precip break out through the Balt/DC region. Not even going to delve into the temp profile for that precip but radar returns on the NAM's is mostly wet until you get into the northern tier counties where possibly there could be a quick trace or so picked up in the favored colder regions.
Always am hesitant to buy into the models when they do a fairly significant shift west in guidance at the last minute because far to often I have seen them go right back to the originally crappy solution if not even worse. Thought/hoped  this might be different because the runs prior to the shift actually were in my mind hinting at this shift. Anyway, think I am pretty much done tracking this storm. Will continue to occasionally check radar hoping for a late save but at this point I think we are looking at a complete Fail (except for those who lucked into a little something earlier) for the DC/Balt region. 
Talley Ho! Onward to the next Fail.
eta: Congrats to those who picked up a little something on the initial slug of moisture!
Rough hobby. How much time we invest in all these fails
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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Just woke up and don't like a thing I see with a quick glance at the models. Nam's just came in and everything is far to the east. I'll look a little more but I think we are possible SOL out our way.

I had a horrible sinking feeling last evening when the short range models were trending east every run and radar supported. Where the WAA precip was mattered because it indicated where the front that the low would form was. Further east meant a further east ccb later also.  And the short range models do suck but  you don't want to see them going the wrong way at 2-3 hour leads. They are also typically over amped at range and correct. Seeing them look like we wanted then shift east dramatically and knowing how these miller b systems go gave me an uh oh feeling.  I wish once in a while lately my fears weren't warranted

 

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:
17 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:
As far as the latest NAM's are concerned it looks as if everyone except for extreme NE MD and portions of the Eastern shore are out of the game for anything of significance except for maybe a mulch covering at best. CCB looks to develop to far to the east, impacting NE MD and north. Only hope for those west of that region are when the upper level energy swings through we will see some light precip break out through the Balt/DC region. Not even going to delve into the temp profile for that precip but radar returns on the NAM's is mostly wet until you get into the northern tier counties where possibly there could be a quick trace or so picked up in the favored colder regions.
Always am hesitant to buy into the models when they do a fairly significant shift west in guidance at the last minute because far to often I have seen them go right back to the originally crappy solution if not even worse. Thought/hoped  this might be different because the runs prior to the shift actually were in my mind hinting at this shift. Anyway, think I am pretty much done tracking this storm. Will continue to occasionally check radar hoping for a late save but at this point I think we are looking at a complete Fail (except for those who lucked into a little something earlier) for the DC/Balt region. 
Talley Ho! Onward to the next Fail.
eta: Congrats to those who picked up a little something on the initial slug of moisture!

Rough hobby. How much time we invest in all these fails

After 22 years of tracking I am basically numb from all the fails I have seen. So this doesn't bother too much. Tracking is part of the fun so I don't lose out that much even when it is a fail.

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9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Folks, you couldn’t pick a better hill to die on then the euro giving us a full on snow job with 12 hour leads. I’m on top of that hill, naked, ECMWF flag flying proudly waiting for my snow. If I die here, so be it.

Euro lured you up there so it could push you off. Actually this was a massive fail by all guidance. They all had the ccb over central and northern MD. I can't explain it but I had a feeling of dread last night when I saw how the WAA banding seemed east of guidance and the hrrr and rap kept shifting dramatically east. Just felt we were screwed. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I had a horrible sinking feeling last evening when the short range models were trending east every run and radar supported. Where the WAA precip was mattered because it indicated where the front that the low would form was. Further east meant a further east ccb later also.  And the short range models do suck but  you don't want to see them going the wrong way at 2-3 hour leads. They are also typically over amped at range and correct. Seeing them look like we wanted then shift east dramatically and knowing how these miller b systems go gave me an uh oh feeling.  I wish once in a while lately my fears weren't warranted

 

With me getting up so early I never see the 00Z runs because I am normally in bed by 7:00. Last night I didn't even glance at the 18Z so I wasn't really prepared to what I woke up to. Oh well. Guess I will now start investing full time into our potential Sun/Mon storm.

Weenie Radar hallucination time: Like that turning of the precip just south of Baltimore. Are the models going to bust? :D

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

With me getting up so early I never see the 00Z runs because I am normally in bed by 7:00. Last night I didn't even glance at the 18Z so I wasn't really prepared to what I woke up to. Oh well. Guess I will now start investing full time into our potential Sun/Mon storm.

Weenie Radar hallucination time: Like that turning of the precip just south of Baltimore. Are the models going to bust? :D

That looks like the back edge of the ccb forming to me. Which probably means we're screwed up here it looks like Baltimore northeast is the back edge.  Mappy might get fringed by that. But unless it really cranks and expands we are SOL here. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro lured you up there so it could push you off. Actually this was a massive fail by all guidance. They all had the ccb over central and northern MD. I can't explain it but I had a feeling of dread last night when I saw how the WAA banding seemed east of guidance and the hrrr and rap kept shifting dramatically east. Just felt we were screwed. 

Euro hasn't had what you would consider a stellar winter this year. Probably because we have had a NS driven winter. So it wasn't really what started to convince me we had a shot. It was, as you said, the fact that most/all guidance also saw the shift west as well.  Think all these models are actually AI's and their ultimate plan is to kill off humanity and they are starting with the most vulnerable of us, THE SNOW WEENIE. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That looks like the back edge of the ccb forming to me. Which probably means we're screwed up here it looks like Baltimore northeast is the back edge.  Mappy might get fringed by that. But unless it really cranks and expands we are SOL here. 

My thoughts exactly. Done with the models at this point and will just focus on that. Looks like it is forming a little farther south then projected but not going to go back and check. If that is in fact the CCB forming then those just northeast of Baltimore may still be in the game irregardless of what the NAM's say with their farther NE solution. Pretty much nowcasting time.

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8 minutes ago, bravesfan said:

Well this is disappointing...do you guys think Harford County is even pretty much done with this today after the morning guidance? 

Think you are still very much in the game. Keep an eye on the precip rotating just south of Baltimore and that probably will give you an idea if you will get some CCB action.

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