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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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1 minute ago, Interstate said:

PSU fears were true... NAM with east and north

I thought the short range models especially were doing wonky stuff with the low placement in the earlier runs. Seems uncertainty was/is higher than typical with the storm on the doorstep.

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I thought the short range models especially were doing wonky stuff with the low placement in the earlier runs. Seems uncertainty was/is higher than typical with the storm on the doorstep.

Cranky mentioned the occlusion was screwing up the placement of the low and pulling it too closely to the coast.

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9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Pretty impressive temperature falls. Was 44 not long ago, now 35 here with heavy wet snow. Slushy light accumulation on the deck. Tonight is our chance to get a light accumulation, so hopefully we can keep up the good rates for a while before temps warm aloft when the coastal gets going.

Was definitely surprised by this first round.  Wasn’t expecting snow or accumulations down here.

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11 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Believed models took into no account the remains of our whirling dervish windstorm covering about 1/3 of the Atlantic. The counterclockwise is tugging the precip shield further east

if the 6pm portrayed 15" around Philadelphia and 5" around Baltimore turn out zip and zip then perhaps a few model huggwrs will finally concede that this "science" needs some serious fixing. Right  now it's too warm even with the 850/925 hanging below freezing plus the shield has less north component than it will need.  Unlike the 1-3" quick  blast that I was on board for the parameters for this one were never good

 

 

No one ever said forecasting was a perfect science...it ain't!

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16 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

NAM intensifying that  inverted band coming through the EPH of WV. I like it. 

That looks great.  Unfortunately the 3k isn't buying it.  Brings some lighter stuff through closer to midday when it's warmer at the surface.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In some ways I feel lucky for never being in the game. Lol. You'll get more snow than me no matter what though. 

I tuned out of this one a couple days ago. Looked bad for my area, plus been super busy at work. Just had a chance this afternoon to take a look at things and thought maybe my yard might slide back into the game a bit. I would totally be happy with an inch. The way its coming down now though I am beginning to get that greedy feeling lol.

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