yoda Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Man I’m all in for Cranky! Day-um. Lol I wish... but he will probably be way wrong with that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Folks, you couldn’t pick a better hill to die on then the euro giving us a full on snow job with 12 hour leads. I’m on top of that hill, naked, ECMWF flag flying proudly waiting for my snow. If I die here, so be it. Well it will get one more chance to knock us back down that hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Lol I wish... but he will probably be way wrong with that map We can at least root for the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Folks, you couldn’t pick a better hill to die on then the euro giving us a full on snow job with 12 hour leads. I’m on top of that hill, naked, ECMWF flag flying proudly waiting for my snow. If I die here, so be it. Both RAP and HRRR going way east the last couple runs doesn't bother you at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 My other issue is isn't the hrrr usually to far west and wet not east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Both RAP and HRRR going way east the last couple runs doesn't bother you at all? I literally never look at them just so as not to be bothered. I have the Euro and looking out the window now. Trying to get to a happy place, where the RAP and HRRR are not crushing my dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Rap and hrrrrrr often suck at 1 hour leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Folks, you couldn’t pick a better hill to die on then the euro giving us a full on snow job with 12 hour leads. I’m on top of that hill, naked, ECMWF flag flying proudly waiting for my snow. If I die here, so be it. I know we live close to each other. Which hill? Hopefully not the sledding hill in my neighborhood. I already had plans for some naked bobsledding and booze around 3am. I don’t need us running into each other. I need some alone time. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I literally never look at them just so as not to be bothered. I have the Euro and looking out the window now. Trying to get to a happy place, where the RAP and HRRR are not crushing my dreams. Let me be clear I think their wrong. Literally all other guidance today was similar and in agreement on the back edge of precip being 20 miles west of me. But I won't lie I'll feel better when either radar confirms or new guidance comes in to refute those bad nightmares...I only really let myself believe I would see snow after the euro and all other guidance came in with a paste job here today. But I know how these miller bs can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Let me be clear I think their wrong. Literally all other guidance today was similar and in agreement on the back edge of precip being 20 miles west of me. But I won't lie I'll feel better when either radar confirms or new guidance comes in to refute those bad nightmares...I only really let myself believe I would see snow after the euro and all other guidance came in with a paste job here today. But I know how these miller bs can go. Yes and back then they were in the same spot... now the question I have is... does the RAP and HRRR, get new data each run? If so, they might be on to something and all the models will shift east with the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 We have a rain/snow mix going on in Fredericksburg and it’s 39 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 HRRR giving me some false hope right now, plus I'm hugging the fact the low is farther south than anticipated at the moment. Those however many miles could be huge in a storm with such razor thin cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Yes and back then they were in the same spot... now the question I have is... does the RAP and HRRR, get new data each run? If so, they might be on to something and all the models will shift east with the 0z run I don't know but that's my worry. I know everyone knows, they suck. But a few hours ago they looked the same as the euro and nam and....u get it. Now something happened and they started shifting east as we get closer. So yea they suck but I'm the only one living on the back edge troubled by that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Let me be clear I think their wrong. Literally all other guidance today was similar and in agreement on the back edge of precip being 20 miles west of me. But I won't lie I'll feel better when either radar confirms or new guidance comes in to refute those bad nightmares...I only really let myself believe I would see snow after the euro and all other guidance came in with a paste job here today. But I know how these miller bs can go. I wasn’t criticizing you for noting it or worrying about it, just wryly noting that it has seemingly never had anything but bad news for any snow systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know but that's my worry. I know everyone knows, they suck. But a few hours ago they looked the same as the euro and nam and....u get it. Now something happened and they started shifting east as we get closer. So yea they suck but I'm the only one living on the back edge troubled by that? No, but that’s why I am gonna pretend they don’t exist. I always assume fail on the edge, as you do, so, in my case, I just want to pretend awhile longer before the fail arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I don't know but that's my worry. I know everyone knows, they suck. But a few hours ago they looked the same as the euro and nam and....u get it. Now something happened and they started shifting east as we get closer. So yea they suck but I'm the only one living on the back edge troubled by that?No, you’re not. I’m in York county and I was telling people at work that I could get completely shafted and it wouldn’t surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Did we have the RAP and HRRR for feb 9 and 10 in 2010? I know there was a lot of panic overnight when the WAA shutoff and before the snow hellfire started around daybreak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Iirc- much of the hrrr's physics are based on radar trends. We're better off just doing our own extrapolating and hugging the euro/gfs blend. At least in my opinion anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Anyone got P-type obs for the stuff moving into the beltway now? Rain or sleet with it? I’m stuck inside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don't know but that's my worry. I know everyone knows, they suck. But a few hours ago they looked the same as the euro and nam and....u get it. Now something happened and they started shifting east as we get closer. So yea they suck but I'm the only one living on the back edge troubled by that? I agree they always seem to trend in one direction, and I feel like it's typically east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 We will know soon. According to all other guidance the precip starts to build due vort in the next hour. The rap/hrrr continue it northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Brief period of sleet at onset all rain now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 It’s kind of nice not having to worry about any of this. Sure...it’ll suck to see some folks’ yearly snow totals increase by 4-8” after this, but there’s no sweating it in these parts (central Fairfax County). Ain’t sh*t happening in my backyard with this one, so all I have to worry about is tracking the inevitable Sunday-Monday failure, and even then my expectations are pretty low. Good luck to the rest of you. You’ll need it. - Resigned to Fate in Burke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 53 minutes ago, Scraff said: If radar juices up late night with incoming CCB, I might drink my 2009 BCS with you. I've got the coffee one from this year that I'm saving for Sunday night, but there's plenty of whisky in the moors around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Re: apparent shift east, using real time obs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I've got the coffee one from this year that I'm saving for Sunday night, but there's plenty of whisky in the moors around these parts. I just drank a bomber of Czar Noir, my bourbon/oak/vanilla bean-aged Russian Imperial Stouts. Sucker runs 13+% and some of the bottles are seriously delicious. Thing is...I didn’t drink it out of snow excitement or anything. I just needed a drink! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 More about the apparent eastern shift... https://mobile.twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/971185789097988096 https://mobile.twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/971186017482039301 https://mobile.twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/971186725715431424 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Rain, sleet, snow mix right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The question with the south/east shift is does it help us at all? The south part should help, but the east part probably hurts. We don't want the precip shield shunted farther east, we wanted it farther southwest. Theoretically a low farther south would give the system more time to develop or could help it develop sooner before it passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Rain, sleet, snow mix right now. Same here in Elkridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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