Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Has some mangled flakes hitting windshield driving through north potomac 30 mins ago. 43 degrees on the thermo. Shallow warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Very happy to see that despite a persistent SE wind the dews haven't risen. Still largely in the 20s event along I-95. This is a good sign. This is important. Looks like a little burst coming in the next hour could help temps drop quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Love seeing the trends we are having. Sort of expected to see an expansion of the of the CBB southwestward on the models after looking over last nights and this mornings runs. But that said I am going to keep my expectations in check. Not saying it will happen here but far too often I have see the models ramp/juice up the western extent of the precip field 12-24 hours before showtime only to pull that back at the last minute. And unfortunately some of the better snowfall maps (the more realistic ones) now being spit out are all dependent on rates to get these totals. Cut those rates down and we will see a more substantial reduction on these snowfall maps then one would think as the ratios would likewise decrease. For example lets take mappyland (not going to separate WAA from the CCB). Right now @mappy on the Euro shes is clocking in with 1.2 in total precip. with Kuchera snowfall roughly at 10 inch range. So her ratio is probably at roughly 8 to 1. But reduce the total precip by 1/4 with a corresponding drop in ratios (lets say 7-1). So now we are looking at .9 inches of precip at 7-1 ratios which comes out to 6.3 inches. Now reduce total precip by half with a corresponding snow ration of 6-1. So .6 inches at 6-1 would be 3.6 inches. See where I am going here? So Mappy went from 1.2 inches = 10 inches of snow .9 inches = 6.3 inches of snow .6 inches = 3.6 inches of snow So just cutting precip totals in half costs Mappy almost 2/3 of her snowfall. God forbid they were cut by 3/4's because then she would be looking at 1.5 inches of snow. So I guess what I am saying is that I am going to try to keep my excitement and expectations down for the time being because this could very easily bust in a bad way from what some of the models are currently showing. none of this makes me feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I see this as a very good sign for sure. Early precipitation is always good, and it is snow even when super light and in the 40s... Absolutely. As Bob and EJ said, it shows the warm layer is very shallow. Maximizing our WAA snow would be ideal. Reminds me a bit of St Patrick’s Day storm from a few years ago where we thought precip would be rain for the first few hours and instead it started as snow with temps in the mid 40s. Hopefully it stays snow when the heavier stuff arrives in 4-6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 none of this makes me feel good. Poor mappy. She lost 9 inches from one paragraph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Jesus...euro Kuchera is still near 12” for mappy and Harford. 3-4” for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: none of this makes me feel good. But it could go even better. 1.5 total precip at 10-1 is 15 inches of snow. Heck move that 1.8 inch contour line 35 miles east at 11-1 ratios and you are looking at 20 inches. Did I make you better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Jesus...euro Kuchera is still near 12” for mappy and Harford. 3-4” for MBY. 3:30 update from LWX will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Here is to hoping the NAM and GFS double down at happy hour. Even though we are basically nowcasting at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: But it could go even better. 1.5 total precip at 10-1 is 15 inches of snow. Heck move that 1.8 inch contour line 35 miles east at 11-1 ratios and you are looking at 20 inches. Did I make you better? I was literally about to post this to provide the rosier side of possibilities. Nice work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 York PA sound like a good spot to chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 WPC kinda tossing the GFS and seem to be favoring the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Jesus...euro Kuchera is still near 12” for mappy and Harford. 3-4” for MBY. no way i am seeing 12" out of this. 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: But it could go even better. 1.5 total precip at 10-1 is 15 inches of snow. Heck move that 1.8 inch contour line 35 miles east at 11-1 ratios and you are looking at 20 inches. Did I make you better? sure, but that's not happening either. but i appreciate you taking the time to break down the issues and using me as your example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: WPC kinda tossing the GFS and seem to be favoring the Ukie UKIE was pretty sexy too...support the Euro for Mappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 York PA sound like a good spot to chase?I’m going where the CCB is. I say Lancaster Co might be a solid spot for this one. I’ll be around the area for sure. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 big uptick in SREFS. Fredrick from 1 -> 4. even martinsburg gets a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I still say that LWX only issues WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, MillvilleWx said: I’m going where the CCB is. I say Lancaster Co might be a solid spot for this one. I’ll be around the area for sure. . Stop into Shady Maple. Little pricey but it is an excellent buffet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Stop into Shady Maple. Little pricey but it is an excellent buffet. Bird in Hand is better quality and price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Stop into Shady Maple. Little pricey but it is an excellent buffet. Hey that's where I work at Great buffet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Being down here in Northern VA, I’m going to have to stay out of this thread by about dinner time tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: I still say that LWX only issues WWA. I think they have to go warnings in the two zones with watches and then advisories for many other places and hope the euro is too big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Bird in Hand is better quality and price. Been there as well. Like Shady Maple better. Has a far bigger selection of foods to choose from not to mention some great desserts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Porsche said: Hey that's where I work at Great buffet! Last time I post on buffets in here because this really should be in banter but this is important so... Can you get us some discounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It is worrisome to me that there is no high pressure at all to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I’m going where the CCB is. I say Lancaster Co might be a solid spot for this one. I’ll be around the area for sure. . i plan on staying home tomorrow. i hope the ccb location is the real deal man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Since this is an observation thread, I'd like to note that I observe the big green blob of precipitation over South Carolina and Georgia moving in a decidedly ENE direction. Also, in Annapolis it is cloudy and 44 degrees with light winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 no one look at the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, mappy said: no one look at the HRRR I already did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, mappy said: no one look at the HRRR Reality check I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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