WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: 4-6 from the Euro in Eastern HoCo!? That is Hi-Larry-Us. I’ll Jebwalk in my 2” of paste and like it. Yeah even assuming bad ratios, the euro says we’re getting our biggest storm of the year. I’m still skeptical, but I’m way more in than I was 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, snowfan said: Was thinking the same as EJ. Go visit the 'rents in Southern PA. In all seriousness, if I'm get half of what the Euro is showing I'm ecstatic. Very skeptical. Out of curiosity, why the skepticism? Just because of the bad luck so far this winter? Euro upping the amounts, the NAM with nice numbers. HRRR showing some great mesoscale banding... I'm not keeping track as well as most on here, but I see more and more positive things for NE MD and now even into some central parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, birdsofprey02 said: Out of curiosity, why the skepticism? Just because of the bad luck so far this winter? Euro upping the amounts, the NAM with nice numbers. HRRR showing some great mesoscale banding... I'm not keeping track as well as most on here, but I see more and more positive things for NE MD and now even into some central parts. Folks are gun shy and got fooled in March too many times. They're wise to keep expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 HRRR trending in the right direction, for what little it's worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah even assuming bad ratios, the euro says we’re getting our biggest storm of the year. I’m still skeptical, but I’m way more in than I was 24 hours ago. I mean the Euro for better or worse has to be right at some point I guess? Lol. Well...fingers crossed from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 heh...HRRR making a case for an advisory down to DC suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Any schools close yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: heh...HRRR making a case for an advisory down to DC suburbs. Never forget the hrrrr is awful, but I really like the euro being the most weenieish model with 12 hours until game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Skepticism also lies in the fact it is a Miller B. Some ghosts of past still haunt....Boxing Day and Millenium. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Never forget the hrrrr is awful, but I really like the euro being the most weenieish model with 12 hours until game time. I think it's only awful until it's within a few a few hours of the output being interpreted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 What time should I set my alarm to watch the fat flakes fly? Lord knows I’m already watching a fat lady sing in the other thread. Might as well keep with the theme. I might even watch some Fat Albert during our brush with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, birdsofprey02 said: Out of curiosity, why the skepticism? Just because of the bad luck so far this winter? Euro upping the amounts, the NAM with nice numbers. HRRR showing some great mesoscale banding... I'm not keeping track as well as most on here, but I see more and more positive things for NE MD and now even into some central parts. well most of the higher snow totals is heavily dependent on where the CCB (cold conveyor belt) sets up, without it these high totals don't happen. Its just the WAA (warm air advection) snow tonight that gives us anything. Miller Bs are so fickle. The low doesn't usually bomb out until well north of us, meaning we've missed all the decent precip. See the NY/NJ this time around, they are going to get crushed. Add the CCB to the mix and its even more. Its just a tough forecast for us below the PA line. Including myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/971094130133815297 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, smokeybandit said: https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/971094130133815297 No idea if he is right but I always really enjoy his nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: What time should I set my alarm to watch the fat flakes fly? Lord knows I’m already watching a fat lady sing in the other thread. Might as well keep with the theme. I might even watch some Fat Albert during our brush with the CCB. If the progs of the WAA are right, it should be before you go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Euro has done the overamp thing this year but typically it's well in advance of the storm, not as the storm approaches. I also think it's typically low on qpf, so this is pretty significant. If you take the Euro verbatim and you just shifted it a tiny bit more southwest, say like 40 miles, most of Central MD is into warning level snows and us Baltimore folks are making a run at double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: If the progs of the WAA are right, it should be before you go to bed. I'm trying to figure out when the CCB will arrive, if it does at all (like mappy said, it's very tricky and it may miss our area entirely). That's definitely something you'd want to be awake to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Also, if some of cranky's current observations are correct, maybe the models are trying to play catch-up on a low developing sooner/farther south than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 30 minutes ago, mappy said: The CCB setup really makes or break it for NMD. Without it, the snowfall map is 2-3" Yea but it's not like it's on its own. All the guidance has that over us now. I think this might finally be a legit event up here for us. Tired of 1-2" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Euro has done the overamp thing this year but typically it's well in advance of the storm, not as the storm approaches. I also think it's typically low on qpf, so this is pretty significant. If you take the Euro verbatim and you just shifted it a tiny bit more southwest, say like 40 miles, most of Central MD is into warning level snows and us Baltimore folks are making a run at double digits. And you were laughing at me asking for a 100 mile shift this morning. With this Euro shift plus your 40 mile request I think we are now in the same boat. I still need another 75 miles and at this point it may be 1 in a million. But I'm saying there's a chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: And you were laughing at me asking for a 100 mile shift this morning. With this Euro shift plus your 40 mile request I think we are now in the same boat. I still need another 75 miles and at this point it may be 1 in a million. But I'm saying there's a chance! You might be right after all!! Still a significant shift needed AND we don't even know if the snowier solutions are the correct ones. That said, if you are right, I will bow down happily and gracefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If the progs of the WAA are right, it should be before you go to bed. Cool. Thanks. Looks like I might have to caffeine up this evening. I’m not missing any rippage. This could be it so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, Fozz said: I'm trying to figure out when the CCB will arrive, if it does at all (like mappy said, it's very tricky and it may miss our area entirely). That's definitely something you'd want to be awake to see. CCB would be tomorrow. Euro had the heavier precip in the 6hrs before 18z 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but it's not like it's on its own. All the guidance has that over us now. I think this might finally be a legit event up here for us. Tired of 1-2" events. I am keeping expectations low. less disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Some kind of sleet/graupel/mangled snowflakes at work in Gaithersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The Euro going big right before game time is certainly intriguing. It's also not overly warm. Certainly not something that can't be overcome. As we saw a few weeks back, if it snows hard enough it will stick even if it is 60 degrees right before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It's been cool the past two days and there was minimal sun today. Heck my pool refroze last night so it's not like it was the day before Snowquestor the other year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wow, some flakes falling in greenbelt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Wow, some flakes falling in greenbelt. I see this as a very good sign for sure. Early precipitation is always good, and it is snow even when super light and in the 40s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Love seeing the trends we are having. Sort of expected to see an expansion of the of the CBB southwestward on the models after looking over last nights and this mornings runs. But that said I am going to keep my expectations in check. Not saying it will happen here but far too often I have see the models ramp/juice up the western extent of the precip field 12-24 hours before showtime only to pull that back at the last minute. And unfortunately some of the better snowfall maps (the more realistic ones) now being spit out are all dependent on rates to get these totals. Cut those rates down and we will see a more substantial reduction on these snowfall maps then one would think as the ratios would likewise decrease. For example lets take mappyland (not going to separate WAA from the CCB). Right now @mappy on the Euro shes is clocking in with 1.2 in total precip. with Kuchera snowfall roughly at 10 inch range. So her ratio is probably at roughly 8 to 1. But reduce the total precip by 1/4 with a corresponding drop in ratios (lets say 7-1). So now we are looking at .9 inches of precip at 7-1 ratios which comes out to 6.3 inches. Now reduce total precip by half with a corresponding snow ration of 6-1. So .6 inches at 6-1 would be 3.6 inches. See where I am going here? So Mappy went from 1.2 inches = 10 inches of snow .9 inches = 6.3 inches of snow .6 inches = 3.6 inches of snow So just cutting precip totals in half costs Mappy almost 2/3 of her snowfall. God forbid they were cut by 3/4's because then she would be looking at 1.5 inches of snow. So I guess what I am saying is that I am going to try to keep my excitement and expectations down for the time being because this could very easily bust in a bad way from what some of the models are currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Very happy to see that despite a persistent SE wind the dews haven't risen. Still largely in the 20s event along I-95. This is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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