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March 7 Disc/Observations


nj2va

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS has pretty good agreement with the 3k NAM as far as precip totals and distributions. Nice 12z suite so far for central and northern MD.

I'd say it looks like the NAM with less blobs. The surface and 500 track are about the same.

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS says all WSW along I95 will bust.  The 6" snow depth change is like 50 miles NW.

The GFS is a torch down low, but we don't have to go back more than a couple of weeks to have an example of where the low-level thermal profiles were terrible on the GFS.  Again, take ALL snow maps with a grain of salt.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

The GFS is a torch down low, but we don't have to go back more than a couple of weeks to have an example of where the low-level thermal profiles were terrible on the GFS.  Again, take ALL snow maps with a grain of salt.

GFS sucks with thermals in setups like this. It gets schooled time and time again in that regard.

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5 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS says all WSW along I95 will bust.  The 6" snow depth change is like 50 miles NW.

I don’t think the snow depth map is the right one to look at. Kuchera if you can find it is probably best. 

1 minute ago, Amped said:

I'd say it looks like the NAM with less blobs. The surface and 500 track are about the same.

NAM is designed to see those mesoscale features like the “surprise” deathband over Hoffman’s house.

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

The GFS is a torch down low, but we don't have to go back more than a couple of weeks to have an example of where the low-level thermal profiles were terrible on the GFS.  Again, take ALL snow maps with a grain of salt.

Yeah, I wouldn’t buy the gfs thermal profiles but the surface low jumped pretty far inland on this run to screw our friends to the northeast along 95. 

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

The GFS is a torch down low, but we don't have to go back more than a couple of weeks to have an example of where the low-level thermal profiles were terrible on the GFS.  Again, take ALL snow maps with a grain of salt.

Yea I can see there being a few more with rates and dynamic cooling.  8-12" forecast in the urban corridor are still in deep **** if the GFS and NAM are anywhere close.  I can see the higher elevations 50 miles NW getting there.

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Just now, Amped said:

Yea I can see there being a few more with rates and dynamic cooling.  8-12" forecast in the urban corridor are still in deep **** if the GFS and NAM are anywhere close.  I can see the higher elevations 50 miles NW getting there.

I have never seen that forecast for the DC-Balt area for this, where are you getting that from? That doesn't sound like a real thing.

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31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I finally remembered which storm this reminds me of a lot. Feb 5 2001. Also a Nina year. Also a late developing coastal system. Similar h5 track. I know it's not perfect. No 2 storms are exact but this is close imo. 

H5 and surface were pretty close  

IMG_4506.GIF.b4cd3f83c020946831534ad4c6002937.GIFIMG_4507.GIF.dad3bba2e16944390af6c86ee04f8816.GIFIMG_4508.GIF.41916538a4607f84c4a3a6ca01368a03.GIF

this storm looks more amplified a bit 

and radar...

the WAA precip in front 

IMG_4509.GIF.5f9b5534a9c585c2f4e995141333f012.GIF

then the ccb develops 

IMG_4510.GIF.67f9b6dcbc943aa8e480fecded45573a.GIFIMG_4511.GIF.c8a1c8df81916adbda60757d0c7320df.GIF

the results...north of Baltimore would be happy with a repeat.  It was 7" here according to local coop.

IMG_4505.JPG.0bfd9e7b769ad20d23513b5b90eee540.JPG

 

I recorded 6.5"

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's 10:1 so obviously not going to get those ratios, but HRRR has 4 inches for just about everyone north of DC at 4 am. LOL.

We better take what we can tonight and tomorrow and run eithbit. This could be our end game. 

Oh wait. That’s the other the thread. 

:whistle:

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

like what??? ... sorry, you got my attention with exploding ordnance

Its ordinance. They are testing it on various structures. Honestly that's all the email said. I don't know anymore. But Its shaking the entire building. I am not personally doing it. Can't you imagine that? I'd blow myself up. LOL.

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16 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I saw it too. I think it is.

We are currently exploding stuff on base too.

 

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

They blow stuff up here and sometimes it starts little fires, or sometimes they start little fires on purpose to prevent larger fires from starting (clearing dry brush).

You both work at the Proving Ground? Uncle used to work there years ago. Always a cool place to visit when I was a kid.

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