Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS has pretty good agreement with the 3k NAM as far as precip totals and distributions. Nice 12z suite so far for central and northern MD. I'd say it looks like the NAM with less blobs. The surface and 500 track are about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS says all WSW along I95 will bust. The 6" snow depth change is like 50 miles NW. The GFS is a torch down low, but we don't have to go back more than a couple of weeks to have an example of where the low-level thermal profiles were terrible on the GFS. Again, take ALL snow maps with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, MN Transplant said: The GFS is a torch down low, but we don't have to go back more than a couple of weeks to have an example of where the low-level thermal profiles were terrible on the GFS. Again, take ALL snow maps with a grain of salt. GFS sucks with thermals in setups like this. It gets schooled time and time again in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS says all WSW along I95 will bust. The 6" snow depth change is like 50 miles NW. I don’t think the snow depth map is the right one to look at. Kuchera if you can find it is probably best. 1 minute ago, Amped said: I'd say it looks like the NAM with less blobs. The surface and 500 track are about the same. NAM is designed to see those mesoscale features like the “surprise” deathband over Hoffman’s house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS is a torch down low, but we don't have to go back more than a couple of weeks to have an example of where the low-level thermal profiles were terrible on the GFS. Again, take ALL snow maps with a grain of salt. Yeah, I wouldn’t buy the gfs thermal profiles but the surface low jumped pretty far inland on this run to screw our friends to the northeast along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS is a torch down low, but we don't have to go back more than a couple of weeks to have an example of where the low-level thermal profiles were terrible on the GFS. Again, take ALL snow maps with a grain of salt. Yea I can see there being a few more with rates and dynamic cooling. 8-12" forecast in the urban corridor are still in deep **** if the GFS and NAM are anywhere close. I can see the higher elevations 50 miles NW getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Amped said: Yea I can see there being a few more with rates and dynamic cooling. 8-12" forecast in the urban corridor are still in deep **** if the GFS and NAM are anywhere close. I can see the higher elevations 50 miles NW getting there. I have never seen that forecast for the DC-Balt area for this, where are you getting that from? That doesn't sound like a real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I have never seen that forecast for the DC-Balt area for this, where are you getting that from? That doesn't sound like a real thing. DT’s forecast was about 8” just NE of Bmore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, North Balti Zen said: I have never seen that forecast for the DC-Balt area for this, where are you getting that from? That doesn't sound like a real thing. I think only DT, NWS has 8-12 up into SE PA, Lancaster area, that is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 And just my opinion but I’m thinking 3-4” up towards @mappy with about an inch 95-SE. I’d be happy to see an inch honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Ahhh sunlight! Go away!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Ahhh sunlight! Go away!! The southeast winds are the killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I have never seen that forecast for the DC-Balt area for this, where are you getting that from? That doesn't sound like a real thing. I think he was talking about the philly to Boston urban corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Been a light rain with an OCCASIONAL sleet pellet here for past hour, 37.8/25.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I finally remembered which storm this reminds me of a lot. Feb 5 2001. Also a Nina year. Also a late developing coastal system. Similar h5 track. I know it's not perfect. No 2 storms are exact but this is close imo. H5 and surface were pretty close this storm looks more amplified a bit and radar... the WAA precip in front then the ccb develops the results...north of Baltimore would be happy with a repeat. It was 7" here according to local coop. I recorded 6.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Every model shows an 700mb FGEN max somewhere near Harrisburg probably starting somewhere near York. Going to be a heck of a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It's amazing to me that the English colonizers were able to oh-so accurately draw the borders of VA and Maryland based on snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Too bad the hrrrrr sucks because it looks so pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Snowing lightly on the south side of Manassas. Like little styrofoam balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Too bad the hrrrrr sucks because it looks so pretty. Yeah, it’s pretty cold too all considering. 4 inches by morning would be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It's 10:1 so obviously not going to get those ratios, but HRRR has 4 inches for just about everyone north of DC at 4 am. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's 10:1 so obviously not going to get those ratios, but HRRR has 4 inches for just about everyone north of DC at 4 am. LOL. We better take what we can tonight and tomorrow and run eithbit. This could be our end game. Oh wait. That’s the other the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Seeing a few flurries in Aberdeen. Could be cinders from a fire too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Seeing a few flurries in Aberdeen. Could be cinders from a fire too... I saw it too. I think it is. We are currently exploding stuff on base too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I saw it too. I think it is. We are currently exploding stuff on base too. like what??? ... sorry, you got my attention with exploding ordnance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: like what??? ... sorry, you got my attention with exploding ordnance Its ordinance. They are testing it on various structures. Honestly that's all the email said. I don't know anymore. But Its shaking the entire building. I am not personally doing it. Can't you imagine that? I'd blow myself up. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, mappy said: like what??? ... sorry, you got my attention with exploding ordnance They blow stuff up here and sometimes it starts little fires, or sometimes they start little fires on purpose to prevent larger fires from starting (clearing dry brush). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I saw it too. I think it is. We are currently exploding stuff on base too. 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: They blow stuff up here and sometimes it starts little fires, or sometimes they start little fires on purpose to prevent larger fires from starting (clearing dry brush). You both work at the Proving Ground? Uncle used to work there years ago. Always a cool place to visit when I was a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Recon Drops Today 2pm ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. A65 / DROP 9 (28.7N 076.6W) / 07/0000Z B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK65 C. 06/1930Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE / 07/0200Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bravesfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 35 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: I saw it too. I think it is. We are currently exploding stuff on base too. You guys are always shaking my house on telework days from that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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