high risk Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I am kind of curious then: what is the purpose of having a 12k and 3k NAM if one is clearly superior? NAM3 is run over a much smaller domain than the NAM12, and the 12 can be run to 84 hours, while the 3 can only be run to 60. Plus, the 12 provides the boundary conditions for the 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 im surprised there wasnt more qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, high risk said: NAM3 is run over a much smaller domain than the NAM12, and the 12 can be run to 84 hours, while the 3 can only be run to 60. Plus, the 12 provides the boundary conditions for the 3. Thanks for the info. So did a quick search on the interwebz and found this bit of useful info on the NAM. So apparently they have a special heavy-duty 1.5 km resolution that goes out to 36 hours, that they move around based on need? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Thanks for the info. So did a quick search on the interwebz and found this bit of useful info on the NAM. So apparently they have a special heavy-duty 1.5 km resolution that goes out to 36 hours, that they move around based on need? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NAM That's right - it's primary used for fire weather applications, but it can be (and occasionally is) used for severe weather or winter applications if there isn't a pressing fire weather forecasting need. Graphics are here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, high risk said: That's right - it's primary used for fire weather applications, but it can be (and occasionally is) used for severe weather or winter applications if there isn't a pressing fire weather forecasting need. Graphics are here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Very interesting, fascinating to see a forecast that granular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 34 minutes ago, Ji said: im surprised there wasnt more qpf For the last time gfs sucks with ccb qpf. Hrdps loves you, that's my hug it model of the night short range. Then give me my 2 HECS storms in the long range and then this b!tch of a winter has my permission to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I'm huggin tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 It's not the HRDPS, but PSU should like the RGEM ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I'm huggin tight I really would love to come visit the area on Wednesday. That outcome would certainly convince me. Trek up 27 to Manchester. Dial her up PSU . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just move the south Jersey part 90 miles west and you have the forecast for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Seen a significant expansion of the heavier precip field westward from Baltimore and north on the 06Z GFS. For such a short lead time it is pretty impressive. The pickup in totals are coming from both the front running precip as well as an expansion of the NW quadrant of the coastal westward. 00z GFS 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Latest 12K NAM has seen a general slight shifting westward of the heavier precip through the region and on north. 3K is the odd one out with pulling the heavier precip eastward through our region yet expanding the field westward north of the Mason Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's 4" It’s 4-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Latest 06Z snowfall maps. 12K NAM ****Can't stress this enough but this is not what we would actually see. Cut the totals by half if not 3/4 on the eastern and southern edges and you will have a better representation*** 3K NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: It’s 4-8” He had 4-8 for Baltimore? No wonder the twitter link no longer exists. Getting rid of the evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Latest 06Z snowfall maps. 12K NAM ****Can't stress this enough but this is not what we would actually see. Cut the totals by half if not 3/4 on the eastern and southern edges and you will have a better representation*** 3K NAM GFS I have been busy with work so have not paid much attention to be able micro analyze each model run over the past day. Big picture to me, taking a glance this morning- still looks like mostly a miss just NE of our region- Looks like Harford, Cecil, and New Castle DE could get in on the heavier band with the coastal development as it expands NE. Gonna be tight. Outside of that area maybe an inch or 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have been busy with work so have not paid much attention to be able micro analyze each model run over the past day. Big picture to me, taking a glance this morning- still looks like mostly a miss just NE of our region- Looks like Hanford, Cecil, and New Castle DE could get in on the heavier band with the coastal development as it expands NE. Gonna be tight. Outside of that area maybe an inch or 2? Haven't gone into depth with the 00Z and the 06Z runs but I have seen enough to believe that this isn't quite as settled as some might believe. That said, from what I have seen at this point I would probably think Balt and north is where the action will be and anyplace south are looking at a mulch covering at best. Can see a general 1 to 3 from Baltimore and north (low end through Balt) with the higher amounts around the PA line. Thinking the jackpot area though will set up a little farther west into Balt/Carr counties and would not be surprised at all to see them exceed 3 inches (4-5?) especially in the favored higher elevations. eta: I would go with your jackpot area farther east except I think they will have major issues with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I know this is the Mid-Atlantic forum, but really interesting model showdowns for those north of us. Philly and NYC get basically nothing if you look at GFS/GEFS but get pounded on NAM/RGEM, especially NYC. They get almost 2 feet or snow or they get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I know this is the Mid-Atlantic forum, but really interesting model showdowns for those north of us. Philly and NYC get basically nothing if you look at GFS/GEFS but get pounded on NAM/RGEM, especially NYC. They get almost 2 feet or snow or they get a few inches. That eastern edge of the snowfall maps is going to be a killer even on the more realistic maps. Wouldn't want to make that call at all. So many variables involved with the temp profile just a degree difference here or there produces drastic differences in the results especially when you are talking some pretty substantial precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Where’s the euro pbp, you’d think it didn’t run. I need information for the love of all things holy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, T. August said: Where’s the euro pbp, you’d think it didn’t run. I need information for the love of all things holy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 38 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Haven't gone into depth with the 00Z and the 06Z runs but I have seen enough to believe that this isn't quite as settled as some might believe. That said, from what I have seen at this point I would probably think Balt and north is where the action will be and anyplace south are looking at a mulch covering at best. Can see a general 1 to 3 from Baltimore and north (low end through Balt) with the higher amounts around the PA line. Thinking the jackpot area though will set up a little farther west into Balt/Carr counties and would not be surprised at all to see them exceed 3 inches (4-5?) especially in the favored higher elevations. eta: I would go with your jackpot area farther east except I think they will have major issues with temps. It all comes down to where the best convergence sets up with the ccb as the low gets going. Places in the extreme NE portion of our subform are on the fence. Highest probability for heavy snow is clearly from SE PA into interior NJ. Rates will easily overcome any possible low level temp issues there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Fairly good consensus across the data presented above. It is almost nowcasting time. These marginal boundary layer systems can bust a little high this time of year since the Bay is cool to cold. For the bazillionth time, it could be about rates. Which model(s) accurately depict banding 24 hours out? 3k NAM? HRRRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Lost support on the HRDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 PHPOOEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 So... hard to tell what I should expect. A dusting? 1-2" 4-6" who knows. Miller Bs are a pain in the arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 What a nightmare forecast. I live in Essex MD due east of downtown Balt near the bay. My bar is 1” mainly on grass. But obviously a couple of the more aggressive models give me 2-4”. I really think it’s nightmare for Philly too. Some meteos up there going all in on 8-16”. I just think it’s going to bust and they get 3-6”. But 25-50 miles NW of Philly gets rocked. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, mappy said: So... hard to tell what I should expect. A dusting? 1-2" 4-6" who knows. Miller Bs are a pain in the arse. Trace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Trace For you or me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, mappy said: So... hard to tell what I should expect. A dusting? 1-2" 4-6" who knows. Miller Bs are a pain in the arse. Split the diff.2-3” sounds good for you☺️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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