MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Does the D.C. stuff accumulate with the first wave before the coastal develops on the 3km NAM? Judging by the accumulation map and forecasted reflectivity, it looks like that's the case and then they get scraped briefly by the secondary enhancement before it pulls NE. This still looks like Baltimore on north kind of system. Some snow for areas in MoCo, but basically HoCo northeast is the target for more appreciable accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Crush job for NYC because of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Still not half bad actually. Looks a little more realistic with expectations. In fact, this run is a carbon copy of what Mount Holly is forecasting for their CWA lol I’d do cartwheels for 2.5” from this. 3k has also trended better with the WAA precip. Let’s hope it’s colder temps for tomorrow verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 3K is a bit more east and it also seems to delay the development of the CCB a tad and also push it farther north and west, which is a bit odd since the low appears a bit more east. Maybe a hiccup, or maybe it's starting to fall in line with the GFS and Euro. Either way, it's essentially no accumulations for us with such light rates and that's got to be disappointing for the Philly area. Elkridge is around 1-3" for you on the 3km. Maybe even 2-4". It's not a bad run at all really. About what you'd expect with a Miller B scrape for the area. Typical spots in the sub cash out with 4-8" in these setups, then bombs away over the PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’d do cartwheels for 2.5” from this. 3k has also trended better with the WAA precip. Let’s hope it’s colder temps for tomorrow verify. That's a big one there. If they do, then your area could see a WWA during the morning updates. I'm trying to figure out where to chase Wednesday. I'm leaning Chester Co in PA. Easy escape using Rt 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Lol.. the nam 3k 10:1 is showing borderline hecs for NYC. That's not this storm. Definitely not this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 My bar is for roads and pavements to cave, regardless of amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 41 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Na, Miller A all the way! eta: Miller B systems are the big surprises! bud, i think he's implying that miller b's are predictable because they usually suck for us (yes, that includes me as well...) A's are fantastic and my preference, because while we can get screwed, there are less things to worry about like transfer/midlevels/and all the other stuff you likely know. With A's we just need to define track. Less variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, PDIII said: Lol.. the nam 3k 10:1 is showing borderline hecs for NYC. That's not this storm. Definitely not this storm I wouldn't use 10:1 for this one. Kuchera makes more sense. Still a big hit for them regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 DT first guess map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT first guess map That fine print is hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I'm still not sure what my bar is. Probably snowTV honestly. We're right on the edge for measurable here, but idk... Come on, man. You’re not a newbie around here anymore. It’s a Miller B. You know full well what the bar should be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Spell check is your friend but why anyone would want to use that ... (Irish joke ... it looks like we're in for a bad spell of wethar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That fine print is hilarious!Who is "tom"? That man loves his typos :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Best run yet from the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 7 minutes ago, BTRWx said: That fine print is hilarious! Who is "tom"? That man loves his typos :-D He says it's his dyslexia. I don't know enough about the condition to speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cobalt said: DT first guess map Wow 4-8 for Baltimore metro has to be the idiotic call I have ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, cae said: Best run yet from the ICON. That's very 3km NAM esque too. I like Icon's snowfall algorithm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, PDIII said: Wow 4-8 for Baltimore metro has to be the idiotic call I have ever seen It's 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's 4" Where do you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, PDIII said: Where do you live? DT's snow map boundaries happen that way. I used to follow him more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 RGEM looks a little like the 3k too, but not as good south of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 GFS is almost over Delmarva at 36 with the SLP lol Uh, into ACY at 42? Or just east? Then moves NE at 48... weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 GFS smidge NW with the precip. Pretty consistent IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Very little changes at H5 with the GFS. All I wanted to see. The surface reflection is pretty similar as well. A little more tucked into the coast compared to last run. No major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: GFS smidge NW with the precip. Pretty consistent IMO. Def move westward with total QPF when you compare 00z at 48 to 18z at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I love seeing the GFS and NAM3 have their sfc lows in basically the same location (GFS even a smidge west) at f36. I'll toss the GFS precip field structure and thermals in a heartbeat (and do so with confidence) and go with the larger precip shield and colder solution of the NAM3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, high risk said: This can't be emphasized enough. I am kind of curious then: what is the purpose of having a 12k and 3k NAM if one is clearly superior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Skies cooperated and will help more by increasing around dawn and holding temps down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I am kind of curious then: what is the purpose of having a 12k and 3k NAM if one is clearly superior? One existed before the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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