Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: Hmmm, that looks much farther west than the GFS and maybe even the 18z NAM. That would seem to bring that big thump right to our doorstep. Wish we could get it just a tad farther south. The QPF moved east from 12z. It's actually a worse run but it's also not good practice to use ensembles at such short leads. The euro/gfs combo most likely has it pretty well figured out at this point imho. And like millville said, the meso banding features are probably the only wildcards. With that being said, I expect little if any accums in my yard. Not enough heavy precip and temps are way too warm leading in. Might get some SnowTV though. That would be a win I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hope those north/northeast in our forum can cash in on this storm. Hopefully an appetizer to a region-wide event this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Look how much closer to the coast the ensembles develop the low! it dosent matter how far west the low develops...i dont care if it developed it @Bob Chill back yard..all that matters is where it is when it explodes and not one model has it close to doing that near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Need a big NAM run to get me hyped back up about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: it dosent matter how far west the low develops...i dont care if it developed it @Bob Chill back yard..all that matters is where it is when it explodes and not one model has it close to doing that near us West helps a bit but south is what would really help, as it would give it more time to explode before rolling past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: West helps a bit but south is what would really help, as it would give it more time to explode before rolling past us. yep...south helps the most...it takes time for these lows to blow up...just dont have enough time if they are not mature at OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 i came up with this saying years ago---Miller B--no snow for me or Dee Tee----lol so stupid but its never failed me...except once lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: it dosent matter how far west the low develops...i dont care if it developed it @Bob Chill back yard..all that matters is where it is when it explodes and not one model has it close to doing that near us You remember the miller b in feb 1996 that was supposed to hit NJ and the night before it blew up right over us instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You remember the miller b in feb 1996 that was supposed to hit NJ and the night before it blew up right over us instead? i didnt know anything about weather back then except that it snowed alot more in 96 than i was used to seeing lol. that was more a wes junker storm right? but i think i got 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 48 minutes ago, nj2va said: Hope those north/northeast in our forum can cash in on this storm. Hopefully an appetizer to a region-wide event this weekend! Maybe the cover will help bring down temps a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The minute we knew the evolution of this as a Miller B the end result could be guessed with good certainty. The rest of this is just model noise and teasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: The minute we knew the evolution of this as a Miller B the end result could be guessed with good certainty. The rest of this is just model noise and teasing. The NAM through 36 illustrates your point perfectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NAM looking east at hr 36. Guess we'll find out soon if it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I have optimism regarding this one, it may not be just a coastal transfer but perhaps the ongoing retrograde blocking pattern will cause the e IA low to maintain a center to the coast with a southward jog tomorrow. This might open the door for 2-4" snowfalls in this region. Not highly confident but don't be surprised if this overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NAM coming back to planet earth a little. Much more realistic. Maybe a couple of wet inches in northern Balt/Harford/Cecil. Not much else for anywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Yep as suspected the 12z nam was just a tease. Another shift east on 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: The NAM through 36 illustrates your point perfectly Miller Bs are the easiest storms to predict around here. Dead simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Next.....again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Miller Bs are the easiest storms to predict around here. Dead simple. Na, Miller A all the way! eta: Miller B systems are the big surprises! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The jump east looks like convective feedback to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That said, 3K is a lot more west. Probably going to be good again for NE MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: That said, 3K is a lot more west. Probably going to be good again for NE MD 3k looks very good so far for HoCo and points NE. Nobody should really look at the 12k. 3k is far superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: That said, 3K is a lot more west. Probably going to be good again for NE MD Doesn't look as good as 12z but it's still trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Nobody should really look at the 12k. 3k is far superior. This can't be emphasized enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 3k looks very good so far for HoCo and points NE. Nobody should really look at the 12k. 3k is far superior. Well it doesn’t crank the CCB like 18z but keeps precip going over MD for awhile. So going to be lower totals for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: That said, 3K is a lot more west. Probably going to be good again for NE MD The better NAM is better for us. I'd much rather have a good run from the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Big difference between the 10:1 snow map and the ferrier Rime correction map on the NAM. I just don’t see warning criteria with this one even for areas near Pa line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Well it doesn’t crank the CCB like 18z but keeps precip going over MD for awhile. So going to be lower totals for sure. Still not half bad actually. Looks a little more realistic with expectations. In fact, this run is a carbon copy of what Mount Holly is forecasting for their CWA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Still not half bad actually. Looks a little more realistic with expectations. In fact, this run is a carbon copy of what Mount Holly is forecasting for their CWA lol Does the D.C. stuff accumulate with the first wave before the coastal develops on the 3km NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3K is a bit more east and it also seems to delay the development of the CCB a tad and also push it farther north and west, which is a bit odd since the low appears a bit more east. Maybe a hiccup, or maybe it's starting to fall in line with the GFS and Euro. Either way, it's essentially no accumulations for us with such light rates and that's got to be disappointing for the Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.