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March 7 Disc/Observations

nj2va

By nj2va,
in Mid Atlantic

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Anyone notice what the NAM had this time yesterday?

eta: There's still time for better or weaker trends.

namconus_asnowd_eus_26.png

Big change, but not really for anyone in MD. Just bigger amounts for extreme Northeast MD and parts of PA and NJ.

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

But doesn’t really get the CCB going in MD at all. Light RASN mostly.

Yep, it's better if you want a shot at some accumulation on grassy surfaces state-wide but much worse for a significant snow for places and possible travel problems.

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

But doesn’t really get the CCB going in MD at all. Light RASN mostly.

Yeah. It's pretty similar from its last run. Starts in Chester Co PA on NE. It's going to be a model war between the mesos and the globals on where that sets up. Might not resolved until tomorrow. 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

But doesn’t really get the CCB going in MD at all. Light RASN mostly.

   If you compare NAM/GFS 850 winds, you can see why the GFS deformation band is so weak.    I trust the NAMs much more to handle that, as the GFS is notoriously weak with the CCB.   That said, someone mentioned earlier that I'd like to see this stick around in the 00z NAM suite before fully buying in.

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, high risk said:

   If you compare NAM/GFS 850 winds, you can see why the GFS deformation band is so weak.    I trust the NAMs much more to handle that, as the GFS is notoriously weak with the CCB.   That said, someone mentioned earlier that I'd like to see this stick around in the 00z NAM suite before fully buying in.

I want to see 0z guidance before pulling any type of triggers on advisories or warnings. 3km NAM been consistent on band into NE MD, but placement will probably jump around until gametime. I don't envy NWS with this one. 

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to see 0z guidance before pulling any type of triggers on advisories or warnings. 3km NAM been consistent on band into NE MD, but placement will probably jump around until gametime. I don't envy NWS with this one. 

     yeah, I worded my post awfully, but I meant to say that I agreed with the idea that waiting one more NAM cycle was a wise idea.

 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to see 0z guidance before pulling any type of triggers on advisories or warnings. 3km NAM been consistent on band into NE MD, but placement will probably jump around until gametime. I don't envy NWS with this one. 

Are you surprised Mount Holly issued a WSW for Northern Delaware ?  I guess get the word out maybe ? 

Winter Storm Watch 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...A major snowstorm is on the way for portions of our area on
Wednesday...

.Unfortunately, a major nor`easter will be intensifying rapidly
Wednesday afternoon along the New Jersey coast. It is expected to
produce heavy wet snow for eastern Pennsylvania and portions New
Jersey Wednesday. Highest amounts should be in the hilly areas.
While this storm is still in watch phase, we recommend everyone
with activities in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to have
contingency plans for altering travel and how to handle possible
power related impacts. These plans can then be applied once
warnings are issued, which will express more confidence in this
oncoming probable very high impact event. Wednesday may be a good
day to just stay home and be safe.

 

 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, frd said:

Are you surprised Mount Holly issued a WSW for Northern Delaware ?  I guess get the word out maybe ? 

Winter Storm Watch 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EST Mon Mar 5 2018

...A major snowstorm is on the way for portions of our area on
Wednesday...

.Unfortunately, a major nor`easter will be intensifying rapidly
Wednesday afternoon along the New Jersey coast. It is expected to
produce heavy wet snow for eastern Pennsylvania and portions New
Jersey Wednesday. Highest amounts should be in the hilly areas.
While this storm is still in watch phase, we recommend everyone
with activities in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to have
contingency plans for altering travel and how to handle possible
power related impacts. These plans can then be applied once
warnings are issued, which will express more confidence in this
oncoming probable very high impact event. Wednesday may be a good
day to just stay home and be safe.

 

 

Not that surprised. The potential is there and there's some uncertainty, but you have to say something to the public. Don't want to have people completely caught off guard. I still like NE MD and SE PA. Your area will still see snow, but it's borderline right now on impact. 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, mappy said:

Lol Tommy T with only 1-2” up this way for Wednesday 

 

6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Sounds like the most likely scenario, as much as I love the NAM runs.

I don't think it's most likely for her neck of the woods. Parkton should at least see 2-4" minimum. Even the RGEM has the area near 3/4". This is such a tight setup. I'd bet we see some Advisories for most with upgrades to warnings pending how everything is evolving for the northern tier. 

1-2" in Southern Baltimore Co might be a safe call, but I'd bump totals a little more in Mappyland. 

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Look how much closer to the coast the ensembles develop the low!

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_8.png

Hmmm, that looks much farther west than the GFS and maybe even the 18z NAM. That would seem to bring that big thump right to our doorstep. Wish we could get it just a tad farther south.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS has been getting schooled by the hi-res guidance all winter with precip types and accumulations during these paste bombs.   Go NAM.  Mappy and Phin jackpot.

How reliable is the RGEM these days compared to the NAM (3K or 12K)?

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Fozz said:

How reliable is the RGEM these days compared to the NAM (3K or 12K)?

3km been doing better recently. RGEM did handle the storm back in December well if I'm not mistaken. It's going to be a battle heading into tomorrow's 12z runs. I think from there we'll see consensus from all guidance. I'll take mesos to handle the thermal profiles over the globals, but the H5 depiction I'd still put some faith in Euro/GFS combo with less weight on qpf distribution because those models with struggle with meso banding. 

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