Fozz Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:49 PM, PhineasC said: When's the last time one of these Miller B storms showing "NE MD" getting into WSW snows actually panned out? I bet the media will go nuts on this and show PHL getting 20" and they will get like 7". Just wait. Expand Early January 2014. Doesn't usually happen, but with the right vort passage we can get a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:36 PM, LP08 said: Newbie question...What is causing the heights along the east coast the lower? That seems like the biggest change to me in allowing the coastal to run east on both NAMs before getting captured further north. Expand It's a good question. I'm wondering if the warm sea surface temperatures have been causing trends towards deeper systems lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:49 PM, PhineasC said: When's the last time one of these Miller B storms showing "NE MD" getting into WSW snows actually panned out? I bet the media will go nuts on this and show PHL getting 20" and they will get like 7". Just wait. Expand DING DING DING!!!! I am part of this so called "NE MD" crew and in the 8 years I've lived here, there has never been a miller B type storm that has missed DC and pounded here. In the past it has been: Jersey shore wins, Philly gets leftovers, NE Maryland gets a dusting, south of that watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:54 PM, Mdecoy said: DING DING DING!!!! I am part of this so called "NE MD" crew and in the 8 years I've lived here, there has never been a miller B type storm that has missed DC and pounded here. In the past it has been: Jersey shore wins, Philly gets leftovers, NE Maryland gets a dusting, south of that watches. Expand That is so reassuring, seriously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 If i wasn't so bitter about having no snow i might be enjoying this fairly active and awesome winter for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 ive noticed that the off runs with NAM the past 24 hours have been a step back from the 12,00z runs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:56 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That is so reassuring, seriously! Expand its just been my experience. Even before I lived here, look at Dec 2000. Really once you went over the Delaware Memorial Bridge, that was it. But maybe this is the storm that changes that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z RGEM ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:57 PM, Mdecoy said: its just been my experience. Even before I lived here, look at Dec 2000. Really once you went over the Delaware Memorial Bridge, that was it. But maybe this is the storm that changes that. Expand For once, I agree with you on this statement. Miller B's that do well in this region are rare. Occasionally they work (Feb 9-10, 2010), but most of the time they don't. At the very least, it'll be interesting to see this play out, especially in the nowcasting thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:33 PM, WxUSAF said: I want to believe but I’d like to see the globals corroborate. I believe the 3k NAM much more than the 12k and it looks pretty good so far but not as good as 12z.I agree there. 3km has been doing a great job inside 36 hours. Tonight at 0z is the big run imo. I think we’ll have a full handle on specifics in the evolving 500 setup by them. Meso stuff will obviously roll into game time. Someone in NE MD into SE PA is getting a foot+ out of this. I like Chester and MoCo county in PA as the winners down this latitude at least. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:54 PM, MD Snow said: Expand Wow... that gets 2-3" into DC land... must resist the NAM runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:42 PM, WxUSAF said: Oh man let the 3k NAM be right for Wednesday morning. That CCB would absolutely RIP for a few hours. The soundings at 45-47 are O-face worthy. Just massive upward motion in the DGZ. Expand i liked 12z better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:39 PM, Fozz said: I'd like to see another shift SW from the current NAM run to be more sure of a WSW level event. The gradient is extremely close on that run, to the point that a few miles makes a difference between 6"+ and You’re going to be sweating bullets in your hood. Perhaps this is a good opportunity to go for a drive NE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 9:01 PM, yoda said: Wow... that gets 2-3" into DC land... must resist the NAM runs... Expand Yeah man, I think we know how this is going to end for us....must not get sucked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 9:01 PM, Cobalt said: For once, I agree with you on this statement. Miller B's that do well in this region are rare. Occasionally they work (Feb 9-10, 2010), but most of the time they don't. At the very least, it'll be interesting to see this play out, especially in the nowcasting thread Expand I don't even count Feb 2010. That was simply a freakish, special winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 9:03 PM, psuhoffman said: i liked 12z better. Expand This is one setup where your usual overriding, intense, suffocating pessimism is actually warranted. You are definitely getting fringed hard on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:43 PM, MD Snow said: 3k with the death band of all death bands. Expand Can we get that 20 miles west please!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 That 6 in HoCo though...where do I sign!? Though if the guy with the sign up sheet is named Lou Cipher...I’ll think twice about signing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:54 PM, MD Snow said: Expand Some are going to get slammed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:54 PM, MD Snow said: Expand I know that the central/northern/northeast MD crew is salivating over this, but even if the details are correct, a 10:1 ratio seems way too generous for this type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 9:04 PM, PhineasC said: This is one setup where your usual overriding, intense, suffocating pessimism is actually warranted. You are definitely getting fringed hard on this one. Expand I've been fringed every storm the last 2 years lol. I'm paying for years of saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 9:08 PM, high risk said: I know that the central/northern/northeast MD crew is salivating over this, but even if the details are correct, a 10:1 ratio seems way too generous for this type of event. Expand I think that’s probably true for the front end stuff late tomorrow, but if that CCB verifies, I think it could pile up well Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 8:54 PM, MD Snow said: Expand Gotta love the Winchester snow hole in full effect. Disgusting really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 9:12 PM, WxUSAF said: I think that’s probably true for the front end stuff late tomorrow, but if that CCB verifies, I think it could pile up well Wednesday morning. Expand fair argument, although the temps are still pretty marginal. The Ferrier accumulation map on TT cuts things back a bit and may be a bit more reasonable (assuming anything close to correct synoptic details). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 9:15 PM, clskinsfan said: Gotta love the Winchester snow hole in full effect. Disgusting really. Expand I thought that was snow depth at first. Learn ppl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The death band shown on the 3k NAM is pretty legit. Hope this pans out for favored areas VS 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 On 3/5/2018 at 9:08 PM, high risk said: I know that the central/northern/northeast MD crew is salivating over this, but even if the details are correct, a 10:1 ratio seems way too generous for this type of event. Expand I was going to mention that, and the 18z 3k was a step down from 12z, at least for Baltimore and south. I know the 3k has been really good this winter so far, but it concerns me that it's basically on an island. The Euro/GFS/12k NAM plus RGEM all seem to basically have the same solution, and that's almost nothing Baltimore south. Glad I'm not making a forecast for this one. The 3k NAM has almost nothing for DC to 6 inches in Baltimore to over a foot just into Northeast Baltimore County and northeast from there. I know it's at 10:1 so chop it all down a bunch, but wouldn't take much movements either way with sharp cutoffs to change a lot of that output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I’m a fan of the NAMs but Phin is right, Miller Bs are screw jobs for most of us. Even I’m riding the line between an advisory and a dumping. Any wiggle east and even I’m out of anything good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 That said, I’m hugging the NAMs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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