Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 RGEM looks to have a low placement a little bit east but precipitation shield expanded west relative to 18z. Has same sort of mega band pushing through se pa that the nam showed. Big hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: He was spot on with this last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 0z GFS is stronger and more tucked in. NW suburbs get crushed, I-95 deals with major mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Good the GFS didn't pull the precipitation field further NE like the NAM, these late developing Miller B's have given me such anger over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 31 minutes ago, RedSky said: Good the GFS didn't pull the precipitation field further NE like the NAM, these late developing Miller B's have given me such anger over the years. Get your power back yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Get your power back yet? Yes didn't get stuck in the back of the line for once it's too bad i don't have to build an igloo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Ggem keeps the ball rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, wkd said: Ggem keeps the ball rolling 0z suite looks good. We'll have to watch tomorrow for any sharp cutoffs, either N&W due to lower precip or S&E due to precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Euro about to crush SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Euro shows a foot plus for most of SE PA. Good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The hits just keep coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6z 12k NAM is one of the more solid hits yet for E PA but precip maps not available yet on TT. Crushed! Eta: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Mt holly just hoisted the warnings for 7-10" out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Mt holly just hoisted the warnings for 7-10" out this waySaw that. They slashed expected totals a fair amt overall on portions of their expected snowfall map. I went from 12-18" down to 10" here on the map (not complaining.....seems very reasonable). Fits my 5-10" call from yesterday. My point and click is 5-7" for Doylestown with significant sleet mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: 20 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Mt holly just hoisted the warnings for 7-10" out this way Saw that. They slashed expected totals a fair amt overall on their expected snowfall map. I went from 12-18" down to 10" there (not complaining.....seems very reasonable). Fits my 5-10" call from yesterday. My point and click is also generally 5-10" now. Works for me. My biggest event of the season incoming......we take. Hey my thinking is, as long as Im not partly sunny as folks just to East are getting slammed, Ill take what I can get. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hey my thinking is, as long as Im not partly sunny as folks just to East are getting slammed, Ill take what I can get. LolYou quoted me before I could fix my typo lol. Point and click is 5-7" here fwiw:PAZ106-062100- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Morrisville and Doylestown 331 AM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY... .TODAY...Sunny early this morning, then becoming partly sunny. A slight chance of rain this afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds around 5 mph, becoming southeast this afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent. .TONIGHT...Rain and snow. Snow accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 30s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Snow, rain and sleet in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Cooler. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Cold. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 There is a sneaky warm tongue coming in now on the NAM soundings due to later and slower development which isnt allowing for as quickly of a collapse in thermals. Whether right or wrong this is what Mt Holly is seeing as well and why they noted sleet and more mixing probably. Cant ignore that completely on the hi res stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Heaviest snow axis shifted N on the 6z RGEM as well with more mixing. Thinking mixing is going to be an issue especially S and E of say central lower Chestco, central Montco, central Bucks. N of there say a line from West Chester, Pottstown, Gilbertsville, Doylestown, Quakertown should be all snow and do very well. There is going to be a sharp gradient between heavy snow amounts and a few inches with lots of sleet/rain mixed in. System on the mesos looks tight to the coast in addition to slower development. Banding *could* play a role in precip type but there is a warm nose showing up on hi res models and it keeps punching farther N each run....very much like last March 13 storm. Maybe we can swing the other way the next couple of runs, still time and I wouldnt write it off just yet either. Confident I eek out my biggest snow of the season......many others should do the same. Just thinking some of the 12-18" total will be confined farther N into the Lehigh Valley and NE PA. Classic early March climo storm incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Not liking the trends at 6z at all. Getting last year vibes big time. If it continues at 12z I'm writing off 95 for warning level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 There should be some ridiculous snow rates tomorrow. I'm loving these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Not liking the trends at 6z at all. Getting last year vibes big time. If it continues at 12z I'm writing off 95 for warning level snows. Ìf you are talking snow accumulation I share your concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 My worries for extreme SEPA are coming to fruition. If the trends don’t reverse at 12z I’m throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Looking at the nam sounding for 6z and it's a near disaster for extreme se pa. Really any more ticks west at 12z and lower bucks s and e is pretty much out of the game for anything other than white rain and sleet. Even central bucks and montco should be very worried. Getting vibes of last year big time and my enthusiasm has been majorly slashed for this event this morning imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Not liking the trends at 6z at all. Getting last year vibes big time. If it continues at 12z I'm writing off 95 for warning level snows.We still have some time to reverse the trend but yeah, this really looks alot like last March 13. Classic climo favored event. Storm hasnt been written off just some shifting of the heaviest snow btw for those thinking this is a storm cancel thing it isnt. Just that totals will be more realistic and more depictive of a typical March snowstorm with LV, Poconos, NE PA jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Insane the euro is gonna be off by low position 200 miles 72 hours out... Thought for sure we d tick east at 00z because the euro was so far east but everything continuing to point toward coastal hugger is going to doom everyone around 95 s and e imo if it holds or ticks west again at 12z and this could be a rain event for areas under winter storm warnings at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 17 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Not liking the trends at 6z at all. Getting last year vibes big time. If it continues at 12z I'm writing off 95 for warning level snows. We still have some time to reverse the trend but yeah, this really looks alot like last March 13. Classic climo favored event. Storm hasnt been written off just some shifting of the heaviest snow btw for those thinking this is a storm cancel thing it isnt. Just that totals will be more realistic and more depictive of a typical March snowstorm with LV, Poconos, NE PA jackpot. Yeah what scares me is we got 5.5" frozen on like 2" liquid March 13 last year.. with this storm having less qpf, a similar event with less qpf and worse thermals is basically a non event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The meso models have been showing considerably less snow accumulation vs total snow for a while. Let's try to stay posotive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 What hurts is the slower development of lp but more importantly there is only marginally cold air prior to the storm. This time of year to really score we need a perfect track in this setup which we can still achieve. The CRAS which is usually West takes a perfect track and is East of the NAM for example.....crushes all of E PA with 1'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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