Mikeymac5306 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Question. Could Fridays' storm off the coast be close enough to pull some energy away from this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12Z NAM coming in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z NAM going to be an even bigger hit for the area. good god. big time NAMing incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 tucked closer to the coast because it is stronger than 6z...literally about 20 miles off the jersey shore. thermals are going to be super super close for 95. N and W of there though...complete ownage. I think 95 is snow though with those heavy rates...surface temps in the 33-34 range...that's probably a paste job for 95...but a drier snow for N and W. they will get 10:1 ratio's easily while 95 may by 7 or 8:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What an awesome March gift we are getting. Is there anything better then watching model runs on a Monday morning?? We had the Eagles to carry us through the early winter, and now we get a few storms to track before the weather changes over. If we could get one decent hit, this would be one of my favorite winters. This 12Z NAM has such a tight gradient to the east, makes me a BIT nervous...cant wait for the people that know what they are talking about to chime in this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 from 54 to 60 it goes maybe 50 miles NNE.. gets captures..."landalls" around AC, then is pushed backed out around 50 miles off sandy hook. beautiful. brings a tear to the eye. still heavy snow at hour 60 with the deform band on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said: What an awesome March gift we are getting. Is there anything better then watching model runs on a Monday morning?? We had the Eagles to carry us through the early winter, and now we get a few storms to track before the weather changes over. If we could get one decent hit, this would be one of my favorite winters. This 12Z NAM has such a tight gradient to the east, makes me a BIT nervous...cant wait for the people that know what they are talking about to chime in this afternoon. i don't know if I know what I am talking about but i'm like 99% sure everyone save for south jersey and the shore plain are heavy snow with those precip rates. ignore the rain/snow line on tropical tidbits... that track is heavy wet snow from 95 to 295 and likely 10:1 ratio snow for everyone N and W of there. It is a great run for everyone save for the coast and southern areas...and with no arctic airmass in place they never were really in the game barring a track much much further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 here is the clown map. But imo, with those rates and at the temps shown(33-34) the greens should extend all the way through SE PA and accross the river. And the pink should extend to the east by 30 miles. Those rates with the 850s and 925 temps likely around or below 0 should yield a heavy wet snow in what the model says is rain. Overall a great great run for the 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: i don't know if I know what I am talking about but i'm like 99% sure everyone save for south jersey and the shore plain are heavy snow with those precip rates. ignore the rain/snow line on tropical tidbits... that track is heavy wet snow from 95 to 295 and likely 10:1 ratio snow for everyone N and W of there. It is a great run for everyone save for the coast and southern areas...and with no arctic airmass in place they never were really in the game barring a track much much further east. Thats what i want to hear!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Jsdphilly said: Thats what i want to hear!! The 3k NAM is coming in now and shows what I just posted perfectly. I will post in a few for those who don't have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Boom. What a beauty. Takes a better track than the 12k as well.. thinking the 12k overamped which is tends to do in this time frame which caused the almost inland push with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Lancaster and Southern Berks Co. sweet spot. About time old man winter throws us a bone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Just now, Birdbean said: Lancaster and Southern Berks Co. sweet spot. About time old man throws us a none! you guys and berks are sitting in the sweet spot imo. I would be cautious of a tick east though as their is not a lot of wiggle room for you guys. But if this trend of amplification continues you guys will be in a great spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Greens will extend all the way across the delaware river to 295 imo had this been able to finish ... 3k cuts off at hour 60 and it is still snowing likely for another hour or 2. Great, great run for 95 N and W. Hopefully the GFS follows suit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 95 cannot afford anymore ticks west though if the NAM is correct. I do think it overamplified though and won't end up hugging the coast that much. The euro being off by that much in this time frame would be absolutely unbelievable which is why I think we may get a tick east by the GFS or why I wouldn't be surprised by one. Not enough to hurt anyone except maybe york county and central pa but a tick none the less. I do think the euro corrects west at 12z though or at least I hope it at least ticks west. It not being on board yet is what has me at 90% in as opposed to all in. I am cautiously optimistic though even if I have to travel to Doyelstown or Quakertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Greens will extend all the way across the delaware river to 295 imo had this been able to finish ... 3k cuts off at hour 60 and it is still snowing likely for another hour or 2. Great, great run for 95 N and W. Hopefully the GFS follows suit... Back in the greens again, lol! Loving this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 As Ralph would say, we take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 biggest gfs run in history incoming... unless it shows an unfavorable solution, then we toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: biggest gfs run in history incoming... unless it shows an unfavorable solution, then we toss Yup, now is the time to only pay attention to the solutions we like!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GFS will not be NAM like...however if it moves toward it then...it may be on to something. Either way I would cut NAM snow by 2/3 to get closer to what reality is likely to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: GFS will not be NAM like...however if it moves toward it then...it may be on to something. Either way I would cut NAM snow by 2/3 to get closer to what reality is likely to be. actually the GFS is incredibly NAM like. hugs the coast at hr 54...it's warmer. as we saw last storm though, the NAM is much better with thermals in dynamic storms and the GFS has a warm bias with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 with the gfs also shifting further west, i would be absolutely amazed if the euro and cmc don't fold at 12z or at least trend towards the gfs/nam. the differences are unbelievable at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 the GFS is actually just as good as the NAM. As I said it is too warm in extreme SE PA but that is likely incorrect with those precip rates being shown and the precip shield in general looks weird likely due to convective feedback but the model verbatim is wide spread 10"+ N and W of 95. at 500 mb though this is a 12"-18" storm from 95 N and W like the NAM. imo the NAM and in particular the 3k nam has the best read on thermals when the models agree on the track. we saw this just a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 12z rgem at 48(i don't know where to see the extended) looks like the NAM but further north. Hangs the primary in longer but still looks to be a good solution in store for us. Hopefully a good sign for the cmc to come around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 CMC trended towards the GFS and NAM big time. Not as far west with the coastal though so LV and Lancaster/western chester get skunked. other than that 6-12" for SE PA. and has monmouth county jackpot. big shift from 00z. thermally the coldest of the models too. 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 After seeing CMC, my best guess of where the RGEM would go after hour 48 would a track similar to the cmc but maybe 50 miles west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Even the JMA looks to be on board for a big se pa hit. 12z runs dropping bomb after bomb on most of us at 48 hours out and it's like talking to a wall in here where is everyone?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
destratisphere Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I'm always lurking, Iceman. I'm a public school admin so I appreciate all the work that is shared in here. It gives me a place to get info that doesn't care about ratings. Snow days are here again, say goodbye to Easter break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Can anybody post snowfall map for the latest GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Even the JMA looks to be on board for a big se pa hit. 12z runs dropping bomb after bomb on most of us at 48 hours out and it's like talking to a wall in here where is everyone?? In a state of cautious jubilation/shock, lol. Less than 36 hours until precip begins looking at the mesoscales. Could be very interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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