Redmorninglight Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Hey can we move that low about 45 miles SE of the 0z NAM position? Thanks. Seriously, good luck inland people since we never do well when placed on the southern edge of good snows at this lead. At least we have one more trip to the poconos this coming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 If concerned about gfs thermals...one needs to look back no further than our past storm to see how terrible they were... Bring on the “dumpage”‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 If concerned about gfs thermals...one needs to look back no further than our past storm to see how terrible they were... Bring on the “dumpage”GFS thermals have been horrendous, totally agreed. Some areas may need to deal with some bl issues early on but once that coastal takes over 850s will crash quickly. Classic Miller B just a faster transfer potential due to the neg NAO ridging. 850 low and lifting couldnt look much better than the NAM. I wouldnt expect the GFS to try and match the NAM look verbatim.....as long as there isnt a significant step back Im confident we will be in a good spot. The NAM is very likely close to the high end of the potential with this and that isnt a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 GFS is a SE PA crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Again, ignore gfs thermals. This panel is a puking rakeage snow event around PHL and nearby burbs. 850 fronto lift is moving towards the NAM bit c.early lacks the resolution of the meso models. Need the Euro to bite. Even if it doesnt I think Ive seen enough encouraging trends so far to go all in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Again, ignore gfs thermals. This panel is a puking rakeage snow event around PHL and nearby burbs. 850 fronto lift is moving towards the NAM bit c.early lacks the resolution of the meso models. Need the Euro to bite. Even if it doesnt I think Ive seen enough encouraging trends so far to go all in on this one. Gfs has a warm bias no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 All aboarrrrrd!And this is with weird thermal resolution where it shows a decent amt of snow as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Gfs has a warm bias no?Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I already alerted my sister in Montgomery County. Still a bunch of people in her area without power and don't look to get it back until tomorrow night. I really like the trends for SE PA. I may be visiting again on Wednesday at this rate. Have Wednesday and Thursday off haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Saw in another thread someone posted the extended rgem and that too looks like 12"+ parts of SE and E PA. Ok we need to lock this in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Ralph, if this stays, we couldn't be in a better spot. Electricity or not...I'll jump at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 We caved and got a generator and it was worth every penny. Now I can watch the next two storms (hopefully) from the comfort of my home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I may need toothpicks to hold up my eyelids to make the Euro...helluva good night so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I may need toothpicks to hold up my eyelids to make the Euro...helluva good night so far.Euro is stubborn. If it caves it will do it slowly. Silly icon and cmc have a non event for us. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I lost power Friday night and just got it back tonight. This upcoming storm wouldn't have those winds, would it? But I guess heavy wet snow would have to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 3 hours ago, hazwoper said: Lived here my entire life (44 years). The fallline is where the changeover usually always falls in these setups. Of course that map will change, but based on the setup as depicted it makes sense for that run Then you know like I do, it was just about that map that's all. I'm really feeling good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Newman said: Yeah, I showed that to my wife and we laughed. In all seriousness it's a step in the right direction coverage-wise - as for the greens, why not, lol? I know it's not likely to happen, but all things are possible, and even if it's a fantasy, it's nice to look at. I enjoyed it thoroughly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: I already alerted my sister in Montgomery County. Still a bunch of people in her area without power and don't look to get it back until tomorrow night. I really like the trends for SE PA. I may be visiting again on Wednesday at this rate. Have Wednesday and Thursday off haha 2 for 2 - go for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 hours ago, Birdbean said: I can't believe it untill i see snow falling as Miller b's almost always screw Lancaster Co. The way things are going this winter, why buck the trend? Put your snowblower away as you suggested. Your odds will go up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Ralph, if this stays, we couldn't be in a better spot. Electricity or not...I'll jump at it! I like your attitude, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 hours ago, KamuSnow said: Put your snowblower away as you suggested. Your odds will go up! Didn't have time to put the blower away but that's an awful wicked cutoff on the western edge. Something tells me it's another Chester Co and east special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Nws seems to be discounting the Euro. Watches up here in Berks for 4-8". 6z nam and gfs held course with track but the nam ditched it's crazy totals from 0z. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Solid 6-12" on both models. Most of eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Storm #3 looks pretty good as well for the 12th and 13th. Both Euro and GFS show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6z GFS/NAM blend with WXSIM for NW Chester County has snow arriving by 9pm Tuesday evening with 1"to 2" of snow by Wed AM commute. Snow then becomes moderate to heavy for much of the morning and afternoon before ending in the evening. Total Snow for NW Chester County 8" to 12" with temps remaining near or just below freezing for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 CRAS is on board ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I know it is getting late in the game to be using the ens means BUT the GEFS continues to be uber steady/consistent with lp development, placement, and track. Continues to lead the way with this one. Hopefully now that mesos are getting into range they prove the GFS family had the right idea for the past 3-5 days. Fwiw, the GEFS 24-hr precip mean saw a decent uptick in totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Euro is stubborn. If it caves it will do it slowly. Silly icon and cmc have a non event for us. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using TapatalkYep, made a move towards other guidance but stubborn as is usually the case and not one big shift in one run for whatever reason. Better to cave towards the others slowly rather than continue moving the other direction on its own I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 I go away for one weekend and all hell breaks loose with storm threats I have tried for the last hour to come up with reasons to be cautious going into this event and I can think of only a few. Just an absolute perfect scenario being unfolded on the GFS and NAM. But I am concerned that A. we will see shifts closer to the coast as we get closer to the event bringing thermal issues into 95. It may be I am scarred from fridays event where I was on the cusp of heavy bands all day and saw white rain outside of the first hour. But that has me concerned even with the big totals being spit out. I see totals varying greatly between whoever is in the deform band and who isn't. 2. I am a bit concerned the euro hasn't jumped on board. It has shifted towards the american models but that and the cmc being outliers has me slightly concerned. A shift east by the GFS and NAM would be bad news for all as it would mean later coastal development. I know this contradicts point A but just shows me that there is still room for shifts in the next 24 that play a big role. I am hoping this isn't the case though. However, both of those things being said, this is looks like a textbook miller B for Philly-Boston. I'd feel much better if I lived in Quakertown rather than Levittown, thats for sure. Anyone of you NW peeps want to open your house for a fellow weenie...I'll bring the beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 also the ICON and CMC being not on board has actually made me feel better about our chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 If we continue to see positive trends today, I have to imagine winter storm watches are expanded south and east this afternoon or evening. NAM coming in now...too early too tell where it's heading but at hour 28 it looks basically the same as 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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