ChescoWx Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 WXSIM for NW Chester County with 18z GFS/NAM of course goes to 8" to 12" of snow with the mid-week system Tuesday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A chance of a mix of snow and rain in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill ranging from 23 to 38. Wind southeast around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Wednesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. Snow likely. High 33. Wind chill around 23. Wind east-southeast around 8 mph in the morning, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, wkd said: Man, wonder what the amounts would be if it wasn't all rain in SEPA. Really wouldn't worry about this right now...the precip is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Really wouldn't worry about this right now...the precip is there. I mean the NAM is better with thermals right. Verbatim shows all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said: Lol south of route 1 is the dividing line. It’s the fall line. Very typical in borderline temp situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, hazwoper said: It’s the fall line. Very typical in borderline temp situations I live very close to route 1, found it comical. I don't take snow maps this early very seriously and from my experience for having lived in the area you could bump that cut off line up further north into Upper Bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, greenskeeper said: the Lama Long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: I live very close to route 1, found it comical. I don't take snow maps this early very seriously and from my experience for having lived in the area you could bump that cut off line up further north into Upper Bucks. Lived here my entire life (44 years). The fallline is where the changeover usually always falls in these setups. Of course that map will change, but based on the setup as depicted it makes sense for that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 SREF's are coming in very very wet. Will wait to see what the plumes say but I think they'll be impressive. Very nice to see models converging on a SECS-MECS for Wednesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Looks like the NAM is coming in pretty damn good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 18z NAVGEM was an eyebrow raiser for sure. Coastal tucker: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Looks like the NAM is coming in pretty damn good... Don't look at the snowmap. It'll save you some tears of joy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Wow did we get nam’d. Well over a foot for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 0Z NAM is a crusher. This 850 fronto lift banding which turns into deform band tells it all. Perfect 850 low and 500 vort pass.....CRUSH job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What a NAM run this is turning into a George Washington era March. Also like George Washington i go charging into it without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Can someone get RedSky and the others away from the ledge and tell them things will be alright? Things are looking solid.....maybe overdone on the NAM. In any event it would be alot more encouraging if the Euro joined the club again at 0z. Seemed like guidance always has that one suite when key energy rolls onshore they overcompensate before heading back to the previous trends. We saw that at 6z earlier which was the reason I urged caution and not panic. If that trend continued then yeah.....sucky. But game on. Plus we have the Iceman thread starter rule in effect......we got this :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 That's just nuts...really couldn't paint a better picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 And this storm didn't pop up onto my radar until 2 days ago and we're only 2-2.5 days away now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 What a NAM run this is turning into a George Washington era March. Also like George Washington i go charging into it without power. Hi. I still dont have power. Might get it restored Tuesday but will lose it again if the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Can someone get RedSky and the others away from the ledge and tell them things will be alright? Things are looking solid.....maybe overdone on the NAM. In any event it would be alot more encouraging if the Euro joined the club again at 0z. Seemed like guidance always has that one suite when key energy rolls onshore they overcompensate before heading back to the previous trends. We saw that at 6z earlier which was the reason I urged caution and not panic. If that trend continued then yeah.....sucky. But game on. Plus we have the Iceman thread starter rule in effect......we got this :-D Away from the ledge this storm might kill me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Can someone get RedSky and the others away from the ledge and tell them things will be alright? Things are looking solid.....maybe overdone on the NAM. In any event it would be alot more encouraging if the Euro joined the club again at 0z. Seemed like guidance always has that one suite when key energy rolls onshore they overcompensate before heading back to the previous trends. We saw that at 6z earlier which was the reason I urged caution and not panic. If that trend continued then yeah.....sucky. But game on. Plus we have the Iceman thread starter rule in effect......we got this :-DI agree. The trends today have been to bring this thing more west to get us all in on the action. That nam run was perfect. I'd like to see the Euro join the party. My guess is the gfs will be a similar to the nam with more realistic snow totals. It has been the furthest west model to this point. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Positive snow depth change on TT is about 6" less due to some white rain but still a fantastic run. edit: maybe not white rain but I like that term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Newman said: And this storm didn't pop up onto my radar until 2 days ago and we're only 2-2.5 days away now. True. We're usually tracking shiet 7-10 days away. We just finished one and a new one is on our doorstep...refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 The ceiling is high with this one. Models have the low so tightly wound up and amped that whoever gets under the CCB will puke heavy snow in a short period. Also, I wouldn't worry about cold air because the antecedent airmass is much better than what we just had with the last snowstorm and the low will produce a strong ageostrophic component and produce its own cold air. Similar to last March's storm, I wouldn't be surprised if models continue to amp this up in the short range up until gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 I agree. The trends today have been to bring this thing more west to get us all in on the action. That nam run was perfect. I'd like to see the Euro join the party. My guess is the gfs will be a similar to the nam with more realistic snow totals. It has been the furthest west model to this point. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using TapatalkThe GFS has been rock solid with this threat, more specifically the GEFS. The clustering of lp placement has been tight for days and never wavered. And the precip mean has also been steady with nary a fluctuation. Leading the way. Fingers crossed as this could still turn into a NYC points N and E special late in the game but with the NAO ridging and current modeling, I like our chances attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 It will be necessary to build an igloo for the generator but will wait until all runs are in to sketch plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 We really need the NAM to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 0z RGEM is trying to follow the NAMs lead. 0z ICON is starting to cave as well! Eta: At 42 hrs on both the RGEM and ICON you can see the primary caving faster and transferring energy towards developing the coastal low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 Things are going too well. GFS or EURO (or both) will smack us in the face...I'll take a slight variation but don't throw some crazy ass solution out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.