Violentweatherfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: You're good then. Yeah this is why the rain/snow line will be critical and may shift/waver inland and back to the coast depending on the low placement. Near Central Philly & Bucks, the ocean really is only about 50 - 60 miles due east. Yeah right. Where in the hell is this southwest 800MB WIND coming from. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: Yeah right. Where in the hell is this southwest 800MB WIND coming from. My bad. Also you have the dynamic where "warm air rises and cold air sinks" so that mixing gets stuff churning up yonder in the atmosphere. Streamers incoming (I know some folks have posted some obs of some type of precip from up north) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Took a few hours off from the shenanigans. Come back and see the GFS with that little shift east, the rest holding true. We are good to go. At this point, time to go make dinner for the wife and get ready to barely get any sleep! Gotta wake up at 5 to make the call about opening my offices and then sitting on the heated glass porch and watching it dump. See you all in the game time thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Man I have no idea of the track record of the RAP but if its correct 12-16 inches of snow by 4pm tomorrow. Also has rain/snow line way south of the other guidance. Man I hope its on to something! If the 00z NAM agrees, it will be time to lock in 8-10 inches for extreme SEPA with possibly more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 I'm done with models at this stage save for the hrrr and rap.. possibly the 00z mesos...its nowcasting time...time to watch mesoanalysis and pressure trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I'm done with models at this stage save for the hrrr and rap.. possibly the 00z mesos...its nowcasting time...time to watch mesoanalysis and pressure trends. Are the HRRR and RAP considered good models? They have rain line way south of SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Are the HRRR and RAP considered good models? They have rain line way south of SEPA. In their long range they are hit and miss. I've found them helpful in the 6-12 hour timeframe though and for spotting trends. The fact both are coming in colder is very promising imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Are the HRRR and RAP considered good models? They have rain line way south of SEPA. They are short range models that run hourly so you can often supplement your radar obs with them for nowcasting purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Speaking of RAP, where can you find the model runs for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet Search the site for the RAP Edit: sorry, doesn't seem to work anymore. Great Hrrr site though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazish67 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Some rain drops falling in Hamilton Township Mercer County. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, shemATC said: Speaking of RAP, where can you find the model runs for that? I also go here - http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_0z/comploop.html You can pick our region (Northeast) and pick a time (above is the last 0z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 You can see some organization trying to happen just offshore of VA - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 hours ago, RedSky said: 1.50-1.75" qpf blob over the meat of this region. Also an area of 1.75-2.0" a little west and SW of Kamu like the earlier NAM runs had he could be near the bulls eye. Coldest model of the suite as well with snow east of I95. ECM usually isn't overly wet it's an awesome run I expect a Mt Washington size snow pile from Kamu or i will be disappointed. Lol....here is the remainder from last Friday, taken around noon today. Spent the afternoon picking up sticks etc. from the same storm, so that pile of branches down below is a lot bigger now. Not sure about the energy supply for shoveling tomorrow....I did call the place I occasionally rent equipment from and asked about availability of a Bobcat or other small loader for tomorrow, but they're all out, mostly because of storm cleanup. I had a feeling that would be the case, and that's okay - I don't know if the Euro would reimburse me if we wound up with only 2" here. But we'll see what we can do by hand . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, RedSky said: Weather World tried to pick up the ball from the some rain forecast but fumbled it again they go with 6-10" in Lehigh Valley. The anti snow team has taken over. Is that who had you partly sunny and 50 last Friday a couple of days before?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 34 minutes ago, tazish67 said: Some rain drops falling in Hamilton Township Mercer County. . Golden Crest huh, I lived off of Limewood dr. some 30 yrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazish67 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Golden Crest huh, I lived off of Limewood dr. some 30 yrs agoCorner of Switlik and Peter Rafferty. One of these days I will replace that stations battery so it will make it through the night again. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 0z hrrr looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Nam coming in colder. Looks like the HRRR were on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Sleet, rain and snow here in far northern DE. Temp down to 38 with do of 32. Big slug of precip almost on top of me. Interested to see if it’s snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Big hit on the NAM significantly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Blue bombs away! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Son just got a newer truck last week, poor kid ripped plow, lights and other accessories off an '07 to a '14 model, just fed him and a buddy, here's hoping they will make a few bucks. Down to 37. Few rain drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 49 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Is that who had you partly sunny and 50 last Friday a couple of days before?? Yes that is them. 10 Weather girl made is sound like there would be mostly rain until tomorrow afternoon when it will become heavy snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Blue bombs away! :-D Details please :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 THE KING'S BACK BABY! NAM caves HARD to the EURO. Wayyyy colder, east, stronger, you name it. Mega run. Great news. Let's see if the rest of 0z follows suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 The governor gave me off already and the 00z models are coming in cold so mixing fears have diminished for 95 imo time for a nap and set the alarm at 2 am to watch the show unfold. Trends couldn't be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I am liking the east move. Good for thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, The Iceman said: The governor gave me off already and the 00z models are coming in cold so mixing fears have diminished for 95 imo time for a nap and set the alarm at 2 am to watch the show unfold. Trends couldn't be better. SAME! I'm pumped, haven't had a good storm in my area for 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Good news I Think...Went out for gas about an hour ago and it was snowing at 37...now down to 34... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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