bluehens Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Violentweatherfan said: Found this on twitter That looks like potential maximums and not forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: Found this on twitter That is the 1 in 10 chance snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, bluehens said: That looks like potential maximums and not forecast. 6 minutes ago, LizardMafia said: That is the 1 in 10 chance snowfall map Okay, nice catch. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, shemATC said: This gradient is going to suck. 40 miles and you go from 2" to 17". Langhorne is gonna lock it down, no worries. 6+ easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, bluehens said: Anybody have NAM 3k snow map for 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Langhorne is gonna lock it down, no worries. 6+ easy Ha! yeah, a 10 mile bump in one direction we get 10", 10 miles in the other? 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I'll take the 1 in 10 snowfall map for 1,000 please Alex. We'll see what unfolds down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Here's a link for the NOAA experimental maps: https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, shemATC said: Ha! yeah, a 10 mile bump in one direction we get 10", 10 miles in the other? 4". When does that ever happen though, yeah maybe the last storm there were pockets of big discrepancies. But for our area its all or nothing, it'll come down to how much precip is lost at the onset to mix/rain or where the banding sets up. Don't sweat the snowmaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: When does that ever happen though, yeah maybe the last storm there were pockets of big discrepancies. But for our area its all or nothing, it'll come down to how much precip is lost at the onset to mix/rain or where the banding sets up. Don't sweat the snowmaps Yes the RGEM looks like it has a few inches in Philly and over a foot here. Snow maps cause a lot of panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Good map! my only tweak would be to bring the 12" + line down into NW Montco, Most of Berks and NW Chester County...but they may be concerned about mixing for a while to cut down on totals in those areas... I don't think they are at all concerned about mixing in those areas, more so they know its a Miller B and the heavier rates will likely be north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 New RAP continues to show SEPA never changing over to rain. Gotta be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Obs time yet? Couple rain drops making it down could have sworn heard a pinger. My temp 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Weather World tried to pick up the ball from the some rain forecast but fumbled it again they go with 6-10" in Lehigh Valley. The anti snow team has taken over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 45 dp26 cloudy with something frozen falling not sleet, maybe gruapel not sure the proper spelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Well after 18z im sticking with my second call as my final call. Very nervous about verification in my backyard but hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 800MB(southwest) winds are screaming. This has to bring in warmer air from the ocean correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 25 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Well after 18z im sticking with my second call as my final call. Very nervous about verification in my backyard but hoping for the best. HRRR should ease people in SEPA concerns. Says all snow thru 18 hours with already 8-9 inches of snow on the ground with no rain in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: 800MB(southwest) winds are screaming. This has to bring in warmer air from the ocean correct? I am trying to visualize where the counter-clockwise spinning low would have to be to bring in SW winds unless it is way north and west of the area. Ocean current warmth would come in on SE winds (with a low due south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I am trying to visualize where the counter-clockwise spinning low would have to be to bring in SW winds unless it is way north and west of the area. Ocean current warmth would come in on SE winds. Ill post an HM tweet...hang on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Lord I hope that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Those are SE winds. Sucking in off the ocean. This time of year, that is the "danger" of the late season storms. The SST off South Jersey is in the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Current temp 39/RH 63%/DP 30 Skies: Mostly Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 16 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: Those are southeasterly winds at 800mb. The CCW flow around the surface low off the coast would advect warmer marine air inland within the LLJ produced by the cyclone. However, CAA on the NW side of the circulation will cross the LLJ layer. generating large scale ascent within the layer between 850-600mb (Formation of the CCB/Deformation axis). Pending the surge of warmer air within the lower profile, areas staying below freezing within that boundary layer will remain all snow and will see heavy snow potential. Areas to the SE are most prone due to the fact they are closest to the marine source, and easily accessible to the warm air intrusion being brought in overhead. It basically all comes down to which models will handle the thermodynamics the best with the storm as we are seeing some agreement now on the evolution at H5. The traditional spots near 95 will be most prone to mixing with even some potential to mix 20-40 miles NW of the interstate. It's something to watch, but there are plenty in here who have the opportunity of a big snow with amounts over a foot possible for areas in Western Chester, NW MoCo, Berks and to the NE into the Lehigh Valley. Edit: Changed my "likely" in the last sentence to "possibly". Nothing inevitable in this setup lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Hurricane Agnes said: Those are SE winds. Sucking in off the ocean. This time of year, that is the "danger" of the late season storms. The SST off South Jersey is in the low 40s. Did I type southwest, I meant southeast. They really ramp up right on Bucks County, definitely risk drawing in warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Violentweatherfan said: Did I type southwest, I meant southeast. They really ramp up right on Bucks County, definitely risk drawing in warm air. If that's the case, then ignore my explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Violentweatherfan said: Did I type southwest, I meant southeast. They really ramp up right on Bucks County, definitely risk drawing in warm air. You're good then. Yeah this is why the rain/snow line will be critical and may shift/waver inland and back to the coast depending on the low placement. Near Central Philly & Bucks, the ocean really is only about 50 - 60 miles due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, MillvilleWx said: If that's the case, then ignore my explanation No Its great, thanks excellent post. I knew it would risk drawing in warm air, but I love the CCB explanation. I had an idea of the clash between the two air masses, but you nailed it with your explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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