The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Jsdphilly said: one of the things I have really embraced is this. If it doesn't look like it makes sense, it probably doesn't!! Good or Bad, when I see things that you don't see in real life. For example, switching from Snow to Rain, almost instantly, in a 100 mile area...doesnt really seem like reality. this run goes snow then shoots the rain line up 100 miles in a hour then crashes temps back to snow. i can see areas changing to sleet for a time but if rates are as prolific as being modeled I see it being more snow to sleet to snow than snow to rain to snow. I think for 95 a period of mixing may have to be accepted at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 3k is even further west than 12k but thermally is much much cooler. if the 3k has the 12k track, i'd really think 95 would be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, bluehens said: 3k is the better model At this range I agree. I wouldn't even bother with the globals at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 r/s line hugging the delaware river at hour 26. SE PA looks good for now but the next few frames will tell the story of how we end up. I do think the 3k may overamp things which is why it is further west but seeing it thermally cooler in a worse track is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: this run goes snow then shoots the rain line up 100 miles in a hour then crashes temps back to snow. i can see areas changing to sleet for a time but if rates are as prolific as being modeled I see it being more snow to sleet to snow than snow to rain to snow. I think for 95 a period of mixing may have to be accepted at this point. I tend to agree on that. But hasn't that been the forecast all along? Up to the river we were always going to deal with a really tight gradient. Im in Abington, basically the first suburb north and west of the city. I am cutting it close...but this forecast seems to have been consistent for at least 24 hours now. Nows it time to just wait until early evening and see where this thing is actually going to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: do you know how to read a sounding? take a look at PHL on the 6z nam and come back to tell me it is a decent hit for philly k? Block him like I did.....saves you the headache. Any poster that adds zero substance to discussion, comes in and incessantly bashes then plays Monday AM qb instantly gets blocked. I suggest folks to the same even for me. If you feel stating the facts is too negative or want to criticize us because we are relaying what guidance is factually showing, please block me as well. Thank you. Im off to work, cant post today. Have fun guys. NAM took a step in the right direction imo. 850 lifting much better, stronger storm, quicker development, better handoff. Going to be close for some areas but we already knew this. Peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 wow 3k throws obscenely heavy rates across lower SE PA to keep us mostly snow...going to be a great run from about 5-10 miles east of the delaware river N and W. Low more w than 12k too. great great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Block him like I did.....saves you the headache. Any poster that adds zero substance to discussion, comes in and incessantly bashes then plays Monday AM qb instantly gets blocked. I suggest folks to the same even for me. If you feel stating the facts is too negative or want to criticize us because we are relaying what guidance is factually showing, please block me as well. Thank you. Im off to work, cant post today. Have fun guys. NAM took a step in the right direction imo. 850 lifting much better, stronger storm, quicker development, better handoff. Going to be close for some areas but we already knew this. Peace. Thanks Steve..you're right. I'm sorry for muddying up the thread defending myself.. distracts from the real point of the thread. You'll be missed today! agreed that the 12z NAM especially the 3k took several good steps in the right direction for 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Beautiful...that is straight rippage for SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Per good Mets in the MA disregard the 12k and focus on what 3k is showing. From what I hear there it’s good....colder. Could somebody post snow map when it’s available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 3k clown map...6-12" for SE PA 12-16" Lehigh valley and poconos. textbook climo snowstorm. I am leaning heaving towards this being the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Beautiful...that is straight rippage for SE PA. Wow the low basically makes landfall in Cape May County. Kick that just 20 miles east and we are good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 43 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 9z sref are a tick east...good sign for 12z nam...we really only need a tick east. If you deeply analyze the NAM, the low is possibly tucking so tight to the coast earlier *possibly* due to the froto lifting on the NW side which is off the charts and actually causing the center of LP to show up as directly along the coast. This is perhaps an error as you can see the idea of a full capture is waning which means lp should actually be farther East which you can see it jump to several times. A blend of the NAM and Euro is probably a damn close solution believably. EE rule. No need for panic. The areas progged to get snow will get snow, the areas progged to mix will probably mix for a while and the SE rain zones will rain. As always we walk a fine line near the fall line/I95/Del River etc in these setups. Never an easy call right along there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, bluehens said: Wow the low basically makes landfall in Cape May County. Kick that just 20 miles east and we are good to go. That is exactly what the 12k shows but it's thermals are all out of wack. I think with the euro/cmc/uk still east and hopefully continuing to be the furthest east at 12z, should mean we won't see a low that "landfalls" on the coast. like you said a low position 20 miles to the east and everyone besides s jersey is easily all heavy, heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 3k is even further west than 12k but thermally is much much cooler. if the 3k has the 12k track, i'd really think 95 would be ok. I think 5-10" is still a safe call up here.....holding tight for now. Majority of systems have overperformed.....why not another?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: If you deeply analyze the NAM, the low is possibly tucking so tight to the coast earlier *possibly* due to the froto lifting on the NW side which is off the charts and actually causing the center of LP to show up as directly along the coast. This is perhaps an error as you can see the idea of a full capture is waning which means lp should actually be farther East which you can see it jump to several times. A blend of the NAM and Euro is probably a damn close solution believably. EE rule. No need for panic. The areas progged to get snow will get snow, the areas progged to mix will probably mix for a while and the SE rain zones will rain. As always we walk a fine line near the fall line/I95/Del River etc in these setups. Never an easy call right along there. exactly.. won't be surprised if we taint longer than expected or if we rip heavy snow longer than expected. In these dynamic systems it's really going to depend on banding and we won't know that until we are under way. The overall look is really good right now. I am trying to focus less on each models details and see the big picture. hoping the gfs ticks east to kind of split the difference between nam and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If you deeply analyze the NAM, the low is possibly tucking so tight to the coast earlier *possibly* due to the froto lifting on the NW side which is off the charts and actually causing the center of LP to show up as directly along the coast. This is perhaps an error as you can see the idea of a full capture is waning which means lp should actually be farther East which you can see it jump to several times. Its only taken me 4 years, but I finally had the same idea based on my own observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 19 minutes ago, wkd said: At this range I agree. I wouldn't even bother with the globals at this point. The fact the CRAS (I get ridiculed often for using that for clues and merely guidance for some reason) is East like the Euro is an eyebrow raiser for sure. That is almost always the farthest W and most amped up model. Doesnt put the LP on the coast over the forto convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Planning to come back to lower bucks for this one from new haven to help with the fire dept, see how it all works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluehens said: Wow the low basically makes landfall in Cape May County. Kick that just 20 miles east and we are good to go. It is tucked and making "LF" there because of the map I will post. It's hi resolution is actually hurting it somewhat by placing the center of LP over that meso banding feature which is likely an error imo. Mixing? Yes, probably in the usual areas. A washout? Heck no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, DiehardFF said: Planning to come back to lower bucks for this one from new haven to help with the fire dept, see how it all works out. Lingohocken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: exactly.. won't be surprised if we taint longer than expected or if we rip heavy snow longer than expected. In these dynamic systems it's really going to depend on banding and we won't know that until we are under way. The overall look is really good right now. I am trying to focus less on each models details and see the big picture. hoping the gfs ticks east to kind of split the difference between nam and euro. Bingo. If you are going to tell me we have thunder under those bands and dont flip to snow (and thunder) with all other layers being what they are, I say you (not YOU) must be smoking some good dank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Block him like I did.....saves you the headache. Any poster that adds zero substance to discussion, comes in and incessantly bashes then plays Monday AM qb instantly gets blocked. I suggest folks to the same even for me. If you feel stating the facts is too negative or want to criticize us because we are relaying what guidance is factually showing, please block me as well. Thank you. Im off to work, cant post today. Have fun guys. NAM took a step in the right direction imo. 850 lifting much better, stronger storm, quicker development, better handoff. Going to be close for some areas but we already knew this. Peace. Go ahead i could just create another user name lol. Truth hurts thats why you blocked me. You said multille times over the past month we were done with accumulating snow an it has snowed an snowed again. You try to come off as a pro but you are far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Lingohocken? Ya and down in Penndel as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerBucksWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Its comical, when the 2 best posters in the forum post a MECS they get praised. When guidance backs down, they are criticized and degraded (by only 1 or 2 folks mind you). Then when they dont know what analytic data is and they take every post as gospel and have their expectations so high, it becomes the realists fault. Ignore feature is your best friend. Im done arguing. Just like Sunday, nobody canceled the storm, lol. Merely urged caution because some of the better thermal models said hang on guys, warm nose punching North. Doesnt mean it's right, but worth an eyebrow raise. I didnt think 12Z was terrible. Coming in line with other guidance it appears. With my limited model reading capabilities, I appreciate the insight and analysis. Keep the posts coming boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 here is my 2nd call...possibly final call as I am not anticipating many more significant changes that would alter this map. If a final call map is warranted it will be after 18z tonight. sorry for the amateur level map this is philly centric btw so new york area and baltimore areas I could be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I like the gfs and nam 3 km verbatim. Im not sure how exactly the 12km works mathematically. I'm not sure if the output is just but through a filter-kernal that convolves the finer resolution output or if the actual mesh and step sizes are larger than the 3km. If is the second than I would definitely say that the 12km is suffering convective feedback. The Nam normally scores with these dynamic storms in March. I'm think a solid 10"+ in Pottstown, 8" in Douglassville and 14-18" through the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: here is my 2nd call...possibly final call as I am not anticipating many more significant changes that would alter this map. If a final call map is warranted it will be after 18z tonight. sorry for the amateur level map I think this is pretty good call. I think the track is pretty much known. Its now down to a few mile here, few miles there and where banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Im fine. Im not the one that started this. I was called out for telling ice to relax an stop crying. Now im being called out for crying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 RGEM coming out, lets see. It has been really focusing heavy QPF on the NJ/PA line near morrisville, then less the more you go NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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