The Iceman Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Tossing a hail Mary pass after 06z guidance wasn't the best trend for Wednesday. I haven't really been able to follow so I don't have much to add but I figured I would start a thread for discussion since me doing that has worked well for us of late hopefully I can catch up by tonight and give my two cents. Last I checked yesterday this still had a lot of potential but I know how quickly things change... Regardless looks like there is still a threat but we need some good trends soon. Someone else can certainly add more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Latest WXSIM local forecasting tool for East Nantmeal Twp still shows snow starting Tuesday by 830pm and snow most of Wednesday with approaching 6" of snow before ending. Somewhat colder storm than last time. Forecast will change but something to keep an eye on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 What a sweet look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 First thing i read is no storm anymore then see the gfs and it has an historic snow bomb interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Thats the problem with the philly forum we need some real mets or atleast people that dont hug every model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Ok i see the MA crowd added two storms maybe or have a map for the following storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Thats the problem with the philly forum we need some real mets or atleast people that dont hug every model run Occasionally but not normally...most are level headed and know the routine. It's fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yeah map posted was for both potential storms what a joke. So still high end secs potential wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I cant believe nobody in here, nyc or MA is posting bout the 12z euro has there been a zombie appoclips Looks great for new england all i get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 500mb map at 72 hrs looks epic good for us but they say in MA no snow even for NJ color me puzzled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, RedSky said: First thing i read is no storm anymore then see the gfs and it has an historic snow bomb interesting Nobody cancelled the storm threat. It was mentioned that 6z was later with the capture but likely a hiccup which most of 12Z proved was correct in assuming. That is precisely what happened to the red taggers that used to post here......they would post their thoughts or relay what the models are saying, posters would bash them for "flip flipping" when they were merely breaking down a model run, and finally they had enough and left because they couldn't analyze anything without getting chastised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Right now it's got that classic Miller B look to it in that it gets going a little too late for us. I guess the hope is/was the block would send the primary a little further south to help us out with the coastal development. Still have some time, but not liking today's trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Wxsim with both GFS and NAM 12z bumps up snow totals for NW Chester County to around 8" with a start time of 8pm and all over by Wednesday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 DT'S YouTube on 3/7- 8 and 3/12- 13 is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 12Z GFS/GEFS both maintained course with consistent clustering and a general 4-8" snowfall SE PA. 18Z NAM insistent that the 6Z late capture we saw was merely a hiccup and continued the trend from 12Z in capturing the lp and hitting SE PA and most of NJ hard with a 4-8"/5-10" system. Wish the Euro would jump back on board tho. Need that EE rule ftw! I don't think this one is over yet by any means. the GFS and GEFS have barely waivered at ALL the last few days. I mean, the GEFS clustering literally has not changed and the precip means is maintaining and even ticking up slightly. The GFS is either dead wrong consistently or is leading the pack. I still think the blocking is being slightly under-forecast and we could see some more positive adjustments the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just saw some of the Euro members. Wow, some serious heavy hitters in there. It looks like if this can get captured, it's bomb's away, If it escapes we get brushed. Basically all or nothing is what the EPS is hinting at imo. Need to watch future trends of ULL interactition with energy diving S near the GL, angle of trof and when/if it goes negative, as well as modeling of NAO ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 18z nam. Iceman is definitely bringing this home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Damn, this is nice to look at...but a sharp line going west for those folks who got screwed last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Damn, this is nice to look at...but a sharp line going west for those folks who got screwed last time. Yep...another kick in the nads for those west of Chester county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yep...another kick in the nads for those west of Chester county. 18z gfs is much more forgiving to those of us north and west folks. Nam seems to be improving each run north and west as well. Good trends today imo. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Lol the precip looks good for SEPA on the gfs but when I look at the Ptype, all rain 🤣. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Man, wonder what the amounts would be if it wasn't all rain in SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Disregard p-type issues...Thermals are notoriously horrendous with gfs!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Fields27 said: 18z gfs is much more forgiving to those of us north and west folks. Nam seems to be improving each run north and west as well. Good trends today imo. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk I can't believe it untill i see snow falling as Miller b's almost always screw Lancaster Co. The way things are going this winter, why buck the trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Lol the precip looks good for SEPA on the gfs but when I look at the Ptype, all rain . Dew points at 33 34 on the GFS with heavy precip but it is somehow 38 degrees at the surface. Lol ok...This is either going to be heavy snow or white rain. If we get heavy rates it is a 4 to 8 type deal of wet clinging snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 18z rgem is a big hitter fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: 18z rgem is a big hitter fwiw. Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 18z rgem is a big hitter fwiw. Where do you go to see the rgem past 54 hrs? TT only goes out to 54. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Was at the flower show all day but I'm glad we saw some great trends today. Can't believe this thread thing is actually working Not too concerned with temps right now..as we saw a few days ago heavy rates can overcome thermals . Won't be making 00z tonight as I'm dead tired lol but I'll be in here first thing tomorrow to break down my thoughts after hopefully a good night of big hits. I'll be here in spirit tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 5, 2018 Share Posted March 5, 2018 1 hour ago, wkd said: Man, wonder what the amounts would be if it wasn't all rain in SEPA. Lol south of route 1 is the dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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