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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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4 minutes ago, stockmanjr said:

What's going on with NWS P&C? Seeing this for Harlem right now.

 

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 35. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Because the radar presentation is AMAZING. You have low-level SE flow off the ocean combining with the heavy mid-level deformation axis and that convergence is setting up right over NYC. Should rip for a while.

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1 minute ago, nzucker said:

Because the radar presentation is AMAZING. You have low-level SE flow off the ocean combining with the heavy mid-level deformation axis and that convergence is setting up right over NYC. Should rip for a while.

Gotcha was just surprised by that. Going to reword my post as I don't want to sound like a troll that is doubting we're getting a nice snowfall was just surprised they upped the totals again. 

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7 minutes ago, stockmanjr said:

Gotcha was just surprised by that. Going to reword my post as I don't want to sound like a troll that is doubting we're getting a nice snowfall was just surprised they upped the totals again. 

I think I would have held at 8-12"...I think a likely total for Central Park is actually around 8-9", not 14"+. The radar does look pretty nice but it's clear the best banding has been inland over NNJ and Rockland County. Surface temperatures in the mid 30s have also hampered accumulations in the more urban areas, at least under lighter echoes. There's no arctic high in place, and it's March 7th, not January 7th, so that obviously has an effect. 

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The 700mb low will hopefully make some east progress soon, or the dryslot may make it onto Long Island. It's still making some headway north though it might be slowing down. Drier air is wrapping around to the east of it. 

The 500mb low closing off may slow the storm down some, but it's still embedded in the jet stream and will keep progressing east. Cutting off doesn't mean closing off. 

I'm sure there will be plenty more to come where I am, but unless that banding over NJ makes some good headway east, I'm struggling to see how my area and much of NYC will make warning criteria for amounts (although for impact during rush hour it's probably worth it). I have maybe an inch now. Either way, no complaints for March. 

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Damn there's a power line hitting a huge pine tree and it's catching fire, and now the power just went
On a serious note. DO NOT go near that tree. The ground is likely energized and just because the power is out dies not mean the power is not flowing through the wire. Again, DO NOT GO NEAR THE TREE.
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Honestly, not much utility IMO in the short range models so far. None of them had a dryslot invading into Long Island today and a megaband parking over central NJ. They had an axis of much heavier precip down here. I think snow will redevelop from the city east as the pivot looks to finally be happening, but the band looks to be weakening a bit. 

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