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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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Hudson-Eastern Union-Eastern Essex-Western Bergen-Western
Union-Western Essex-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Passaic-Northern
Nassau-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern
Queens-Bronx-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond
(Staten Is.)-Southern Nassau-
1249 PM EST WED MAR 7 2018

...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER HUDSON...UNION...BERGEN... EASTERN
ESSEX...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...QUEENS...RICHMOND...BRONX...
KINGS...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) AND CENTRAL NASSAU COUNTIES...

At 1242 PM EST, Rain will change to heavy snow across the region
through 2pm. Isolated lightning strikes are expected.

Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected to develop
through mid to late afternoon. Visibilities will drop to one quarter
mile or less.
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1 hour ago, larrye said:

I dunno. Up here in Tarrytown, it's 34 degrees and not sticking. I would have expected an inch or two at least already based on the forecasts that I heard. But let's see if the column cools down and we see an accumulating snow this afternoon. Theoretically, with 2" per hour ... even if the accums start at 1PM, we could see 10"-12". You guys would know much better than I how to interpret the radar and whether it will fill in.

And just like I predicted it's currently puking snow here, accumulating at the rate of 2-3" per hour.

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NWS P&C for Harlem.

 

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 35. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

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4 minutes ago, stockmanjr said:

What's going on with NWS P&C? Seeing this for Harlem right now.

 

Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 35. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Because the radar presentation is AMAZING. You have low-level SE flow off the ocean combining with the heavy mid-level deformation axis and that convergence is setting up right over NYC. Should rip for a while.

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1 minute ago, nzucker said:

Because the radar presentation is AMAZING. You have low-level SE flow off the ocean combining with the heavy mid-level deformation axis and that convergence is setting up right over NYC. Should rip for a while.

Gotcha was just surprised by that. Going to reword my post as I don't want to sound like a troll that is doubting we're getting a nice snowfall was just surprised they upped the totals again. 

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7 minutes ago, stockmanjr said:

Gotcha was just surprised by that. Going to reword my post as I don't want to sound like a troll that is doubting we're getting a nice snowfall was just surprised they upped the totals again. 

I think I would have held at 8-12"...I think a likely total for Central Park is actually around 8-9", not 14"+. The radar does look pretty nice but it's clear the best banding has been inland over NNJ and Rockland County. Surface temperatures in the mid 30s have also hampered accumulations in the more urban areas, at least under lighter echoes. There's no arctic high in place, and it's March 7th, not January 7th, so that obviously has an effect. 

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