Dan76 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This is going to be cement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just had a burst of huge parachutes it’s here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Let’s see a photo 10 miles south in the Bronx for the observation thread. Im telling you, moderate snow, negative accumulation. That is live. Not same old BS. And yes, it is same story as last storm. You may not like the observation...but it is a real time observation. You may like the looks of that radar, but I don't Im not stupid enough to say that it wont fill in, but as present, I do not see it happening Radar is great though...use NWS products for more accuracy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, nzucker said: Radar is great though...use NWS products for more accuracy: Take this crap to the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This is playing out almost like 1/27/11. The rain snow line is moving north but in the reverse with snow breaking out further south first in the heavy bands. It's snowing in Monmouth and Ocean and much of the rest of the state except for Middlesex on NE so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: this honestly reminds me a lot of a plains or denver blizzard: summery lapse rates, elevated convection feeding the ccb, rapid strengthening and occlusion. i would not be surprised to see thunderstorms drag the whole system slightly farther east of what's currently being modeled. otherwise, i have increasing confidence this will verify as a blizzard in parts of jersey, long island (bk/qns included) and the rest of southern new england. keep talking dirty to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Guys, please stop with the bickering and worrying about a bust. Take that to banter or better yet nowhere and keep it to yourself. And no one should be worried about a bust yet, NO ONE. The real action doesn't even start for the city and especially points east until 3-4pm. That's when dynamics from the upper air low will cause massive lift and heavy snow areawide. The CCB is modeled everywhere to take over and pound places that are rain or wet now, and it could come down at 2-3"/hour. The dynamics haven't really gotten going yet, and that's why ground temps have risen and rain/white rain is falling. That will change in the next 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, seanick said: Take this crap to the banter. Discussing radar trends isn't banter. Replying to the 1/27 reference, the cooling is dynamically driven so expect snow in heavier bands and rain in lighter bands. The 850s are plenty cold at -5C, but the surface is quite warm. That will be minimized as the higher rates move in. 1/27 also had a good bit of thundersnow, which we are expecting today. The convective look on radar is similar, although surface temps are probably a hair warmer due to time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You guys are hilarious. This is playing out so far exactly as modeled. I dunno. Up here in Tarrytown, it's 34 degrees and not sticking. I would have expected an inch or two at least already based on the forecasts that I heard. But let's see if the column cools down and we see an accumulating snow this afternoon. Theoretically, with 2" per hour ... even if the accums start at 1PM, we could see 10"-12". You guys would know much better than I how to interpret the radar and whether it will fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 35 and white raining here in midtown the real snow is going to start around 3pm till about 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I don't when the short term models run, but does anyone know what they are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Classic look on satellite. You can clearly see the coastal low strengthening as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Latest HRRR has cut back on totals by 3 or 4 inches around the city. I assume a lot what fell as rain already the HRRR thought was snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 on vis loops, its pretty easy to see the 700 low over DE (evident on radar too) and 2 surface lows. the surface warm sector is to the SE of the farthest east low. the upper trof is going neg tilt now and there are early signs of the 500 low taking shape over virginia (look at WV loops for that). there may be some dry slot issues on long island for a time, but it should fill in quickly by 3-4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: I don't when the short term models run, but does anyone know what they are showing? Most recent HRRR I saw (15z) shows heavy snow starting around 2-3pm area wide, and snow continuing until maybe 10-11pm. About an inch liquid falls in the city/LI as snow. The peak could be a few inches per hour especially around 4-6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The people on NY1 news are really clueless. They are going with 3 to 6 inches for the city even though they mention the NWS is going with 10-14 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Just had a burst of huge parachutes it’s here!!! It feels like we have two observation threads, both threads should be combined. It switched to all snow here around 11:45 AM temp dropped 2 degrees and skies got really dark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 39 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: They keep upping snow totals. They did so big time for northwestern areas. Moderately so for NYC immediate area (see NJWX) - from 4-8 to 7-11 to 8-12. Hopefully they bust low. Yes they did... My p&c now shows 16-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Most recent HRRR I saw (15z) shows heavy snow starting around 2-3pm area wide, and snow continuing until maybe 10-11pm. About an inch liquid falls in the city/LI as snow. The peak could be a few inches per hour especially around 4-6pm. Looking forward to some 3"/hr rates and thundersnow, great afternoon snow should be perfect for photo ops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, seanick said: Latest HRRR has cut back on totals by 3 or 4 inches around the city. I assume a lot what fell as rain already the HRRR thought was snow? Well, that's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Most recent HRRR I saw (15z) shows heavy snow starting around 2-3pm area wide, and snow continuing until maybe 10-11pm. About an inch liquid falls in the city/LI as snow. The peak could be a few inches per hour especially around 4-6pm. It's continuing to show that wild looking 50 dbz convective CCB approaching Long Beach later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, nzucker said: Discussing radar trends isn't banter. Replying to the 1/27 reference, the cooling is dynamically driven so expect snow in heavier bands and rain in lighter bands. The 850s are plenty cold at -5C, but the surface is quite warm. That will be minimized as the higher rates move in. 1/27 also had a good bit of thundersnow, which we are expecting today. The convective look on radar is similar, although surface temps are probably a hair warmer due to time of year. That one also occurred mainly at night. But the difference in the time of year is a big deal regardless. 12/03 and 1/27/11 had quite a bit in common, this is a late season version of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's continuing to show that wild looking 50 dbz convective CCB approaching Long Beach later. It's already all snow here and coming down hard- what rates are we looking at with that in SW Nassau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Paragon said: It's already all snow here and coming down hard- what rates are we looking at with that in SW Nassau? 2-3"/hour. The radar looks crazy especially around dusk. And the HRRR is showing lower amounts generally because it expects a couple of hours initially to be rain/snow, and the axis of heaviest precip shifted a little east. To me, everything's on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Still raining and 36 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 2-3"/hour. The radar looks crazy especially around dusk. And the HRRR is showing lower amounts generally because it expects a couple of hours initially to be rain/snow, and the axis of heaviest precip shifted a little east. To me, everything's on track. Yep our only concern is getting all this to stick during prime heating hours but at those rates, it should do so easily. I saw a crazy 12-18" prediction this morning dont know if that will verify though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 LYNBROOK in western Nassau Mod snow sticking 33 degrees, it's here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Had 2 Loud rumbles of thunder here under heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yep our only concern is getting all this to stick during prime heating hours but at those rates, it should do so easily. I saw a crazy 12-18" prediction this morning dont know if that will verify though. I highly doubt that but 6" or so looks like a good bet, maybe 8". Have to expect 7 or 8-1 ratios. It'll paste like crazy to the trees/power lines, so outages may be going up pretty substantially later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I highly doubt that but 6" or so looks like a good bet, maybe 8". Have to expect 7 or 8-1 ratios. It'll paste like crazy to the trees/power lines, so outages may be going up pretty substantially later today. I see they're getting thundersnow in Manhattan, Queens, Staten Island and Brooklyn, I wonder when that gets here. There's also thunder and lightning down the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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