Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 My spirit animal for this storm is 12/9/05 in Boston. We had a front-end dump of a few inches in the morning then a dull lull all morning through lunch - was in the mid 30s and drizzling. Doubted the banding that was supposed to develop. Then - cracks of thunder and some wind-driven sleet heralded the most intense 3 hours of snow of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Its quite a few hours earlier than that. The rgem has the best dynamics from around 12-1 through 6 or 7, and basically gone by 9. hmm, thought that would be mostly rain in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1053 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 NJZ004-103-105-NYZ068>070-080000- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180308T0900Z/ Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester- 1053 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 15 to 20 inches are expected. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour this afternoon into early evening. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Power outages due to heavy snow weighing down trees or their limbs will be likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Upton 8-12 for NYC CMC and HRDPS crushes the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1053 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 NJZ004-103-105-NYZ068>070-080000- /O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180308T0900Z/ Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Western Essex-Putnam-Rockland- Northern Westchester- 1053 AM EST Wed Mar 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 15 to 20 inches are expected. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour this afternoon into early evening. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible, including during the evening commute. Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. Power outages due to heavy snow weighing down trees or their limbs will be likely. Did I read that right? 15-20 inches??! O.o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, husky0101 said: Did I read that right? 15-20 inches??! O.o Yeah and I got bumped from 8-14 to 10-15". Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 They keep upping snow totals. They did so big time for northwestern areas. Moderately so for NYC immediate area (see NJWX) - from 4-8 to 7-11 to 8-12. Hopefully they bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This is looking like February 2006. It started with a drizzle that lasted hours and we thought the storm was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has a huge snowstorm on Monday it was closer to that full phase i mentioned yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Route 1 corridor snowhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just had a burst of huge parachutes it’s here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 this honestly reminds me a lot of a plains or denver blizzard: summery lapse rates, elevated convection feeding the ccb, rapid strengthening and occlusion. i would not be surprised to see thunderstorms drag the whole system slightly farther east of what's currently being modeled. otherwise, i have increasing confidence this will verify as a blizzard in parts of jersey, long island (bk/qns included) and the rest of southern new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovewinter Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Did I read that right? 15-20 inches??! O.o I’d believe it. I just looked outside and it’s finally sticking on driveway and street, even though it’s been snowing since midnight. (Far northwest Sussex County) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 You guys are hilarious. This is playing out so far exactly as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This is going to be cement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just had a burst of huge parachutes it’s here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: Let’s see a photo 10 miles south in the Bronx for the observation thread. Im telling you, moderate snow, negative accumulation. That is live. Not same old BS. And yes, it is same story as last storm. You may not like the observation...but it is a real time observation. You may like the looks of that radar, but I don't Im not stupid enough to say that it wont fill in, but as present, I do not see it happening Radar is great though...use NWS products for more accuracy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, nzucker said: Radar is great though...use NWS products for more accuracy: Take this crap to the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This is playing out almost like 1/27/11. The rain snow line is moving north but in the reverse with snow breaking out further south first in the heavy bands. It's snowing in Monmouth and Ocean and much of the rest of the state except for Middlesex on NE so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: this honestly reminds me a lot of a plains or denver blizzard: summery lapse rates, elevated convection feeding the ccb, rapid strengthening and occlusion. i would not be surprised to see thunderstorms drag the whole system slightly farther east of what's currently being modeled. otherwise, i have increasing confidence this will verify as a blizzard in parts of jersey, long island (bk/qns included) and the rest of southern new england. keep talking dirty to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Guys, please stop with the bickering and worrying about a bust. Take that to banter or better yet nowhere and keep it to yourself. And no one should be worried about a bust yet, NO ONE. The real action doesn't even start for the city and especially points east until 3-4pm. That's when dynamics from the upper air low will cause massive lift and heavy snow areawide. The CCB is modeled everywhere to take over and pound places that are rain or wet now, and it could come down at 2-3"/hour. The dynamics haven't really gotten going yet, and that's why ground temps have risen and rain/white rain is falling. That will change in the next 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, seanick said: Take this crap to the banter. Discussing radar trends isn't banter. Replying to the 1/27 reference, the cooling is dynamically driven so expect snow in heavier bands and rain in lighter bands. The 850s are plenty cold at -5C, but the surface is quite warm. That will be minimized as the higher rates move in. 1/27 also had a good bit of thundersnow, which we are expecting today. The convective look on radar is similar, although surface temps are probably a hair warmer due to time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You guys are hilarious. This is playing out so far exactly as modeled. I dunno. Up here in Tarrytown, it's 34 degrees and not sticking. I would have expected an inch or two at least already based on the forecasts that I heard. But let's see if the column cools down and we see an accumulating snow this afternoon. Theoretically, with 2" per hour ... even if the accums start at 1PM, we could see 10"-12". You guys would know much better than I how to interpret the radar and whether it will fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 35 and white raining here in midtown the real snow is going to start around 3pm till about 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I don't when the short term models run, but does anyone know what they are showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Classic look on satellite. You can clearly see the coastal low strengthening as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Latest HRRR has cut back on totals by 3 or 4 inches around the city. I assume a lot what fell as rain already the HRRR thought was snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 on vis loops, its pretty easy to see the 700 low over DE (evident on radar too) and 2 surface lows. the surface warm sector is to the SE of the farthest east low. the upper trof is going neg tilt now and there are early signs of the 500 low taking shape over virginia (look at WV loops for that). there may be some dry slot issues on long island for a time, but it should fill in quickly by 3-4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NYCGreg said: I don't when the short term models run, but does anyone know what they are showing? Most recent HRRR I saw (15z) shows heavy snow starting around 2-3pm area wide, and snow continuing until maybe 10-11pm. About an inch liquid falls in the city/LI as snow. The peak could be a few inches per hour especially around 4-6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.