Franklin0529 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 All rain down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, sferic said: I still don't really have a good feel for how much Western Nassau county can get. When would be the last of the accumulating snow? 6PM, Midnight? 4-8" are likely. Don't be surprised if you see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Important point to keep in mind. While many are focusing on the snow/liquid ratio, remember, that only affects snow depth, which to me is more of an "elegance" issue. With regard to impact on things like snow removal (force/energy needed for it) and the weight of the snow on trees and roofs, the same mass of snow falls regardless of the ratio, which is why I like using the 10:1 maps, as the conversion to mass is simple (you have no idea of mass with Kuchera). Same thing was true on 3/14 last year with the sleet - the mass of frozen precip was exactly as forecast - just didn't look as pretty, but was just as impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Nam has a big band over the city this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Via Twitter: crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 37s38 seconds ago More Primary low well off the coast. Occlusion building into the NJ coast with the mid level anchor developing. Development underway. Cold air pushing in rapidly with the incoming disturbance from the west. We've just begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 110 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CST Wed Mar 07 2018 Areas affected...eastern PA...central and northern NJ Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071347Z - 071745Z SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely to develop later this morning. Locally higher rates (2+ inches/hour) are possible primarily after noon local time within the frontal snow band and/or convectively augmented bursts. DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis places a sub 1000mb developing low 60 mi ESE of WAL. Temperatures are in the 32-34 degrees F range from the northern part of Chesapeake Bay to NYC. The 12Z IAD RAOB from Dulles, VA showed a temperature profile subfreezing except immediately near the surface. The 500mb temperature was -25.5 C. Looping water-vapor imagery indicates the mid-level trough was located over the central Appalachians as of 13-14Z. As this disturbance approaches the region, strong mid-level ascent associated with the trough (leading to significant columnar cooling in the mid-levels) coupled with the northern periphery of a plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (7-8 degrees C per km) will combine and result in pockets of weak buoyancy and upright convection. Convection will increase in coverage from northern DE northeast towards the NYC area during the late morning into the early afternoon. Models indicate the development of strong frontogenetic forcing will begin primarily around or after 17Z. As the deep-layer large-scale ascent strengthens and becomes vertically juxtaposed with the intensifying frontogenesis, hourly precipitation rates will markedly increase from around 0.10 inch to 0.10-0.25 inch. Marginal surface temperatures will effectively result in a significant concern/limiting factor for the spatial coverage of 1+ inch/hour rates farther southeast across portions of NJ as a sharp rain/snow precipitation-type gradient becomes established. Eastern PA into northern NJ will likely maintain snow as the precipitation type and heavy snowfall rates will focus in a narrow corridor from the north part of PHL north-northeast into northern NJ. Higher elevations will likely attain the coldest temperatures (due to the low-level thermal profile cooling as elevation increases from sea level to 1-2 kft) and the most intense accumulation/hourly rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The 12z NAM is perfect for the whole metro if you like really intense snowfall rates. It's not a long duration event as modeled but if you believe the model, it will be a fun afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, eduggs said: The 12z NAM is perfect for the whole metro if you like really intense snowfall rates. It's not a long duration event as modeled but if you believe the model, it will be a fun afternoon. Yes intense rates from 2pm to 8pm according to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 12z NAM is perfect for the whole metro if you like really intense snowfall rates. It's not a long duration event as modeled but if you believe the model, it will be a fun afternoon. 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Yes intense rates from 2pm to 8pm according to the NAM. Best part is that it's predominantly during daylight hours. Going to be awesome to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Best part is that it's predominantly during daylight hours. Going to be awesome to watch. Correct... those rates are 2-4” an hour so could get a foot or more in a short period of time... evening commute looks like an impassable task! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Excellent moist inflow off the Atlantic right into the area. Radar returns are not expanding rapidly NW as modeled yesterday. That's probably a good thing for eastern and coastal sections and not so good for areas on the western fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, tempestatis014 said: Looks like Monmouth might get slammed if the NAM is correct The 3k nam likes interior central nj jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The 3k nam likes interior central nj jackpot Looking at the radar, that seems correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I'm. In Monmouth County an it's been raining all morning what time do y'all expect the switch over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I'm. In Monmouth County an it's been raining all morning what time do y'all expect the switch over Between 11 and 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The 3km NAM maxes out at 5.6"per hour snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 3km NAM maxes out at 5.6"per hour snowfall rates. Nah. Models are all wrong. Im old and ive seen crappy radars before, this wont fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Nah. Models are all wrong. Im old and ive seen crappy radars before, this wont fill in. And the fire fighter throws gas on the fire. I cannot wait for it to start ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Nah. Models are all wrong. Im old and ive seen crappy radars before, this wont fill in. Haha..these mid-level lapse rates look more like what we would see with a summer EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: Haha..these mid-level lapse rates look more like what we would see with a summer EML. This is a lie - we never see steep lapse rates in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Current radar depiction is classic for developing cyclone and strong CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Perfect perfect perfect radar. Lapse rates even show up with the convective look! Yum yum yum yum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Rgem has 12-18 inches for NYC west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The weenie suicides in the early goings of a storm never fail to amuse me. The radar is juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowDemon said: The weenie suicides in the early goings of a storm never fail to amuse me. The radar is juicy! Wouldn’t be a part of this experience without them! Also, have some people here at work who are calling it a dud. Trying to convince them otherwise but prob won’t happen until they actually see heavy snow accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Urban heat island FTL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Dino said: RGEM rolling - for NYC and east, good stuff comes at 6PM - 10PM. Its quite a few hours earlier than that. The rgem has the best dynamics from around 12-1 through 6 or 7, and basically gone by 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: This is a lie - we never see steep lapse rates in the summer. Tell me about it. Our cold season mid-level lapse rates have been consistently better than the summers recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, hooralph said: Urban heat island FTL... I’m right in the middle of that green blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Rgem cut back for areas South and west, or it thinks 6" has already fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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