LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, hooralph said: I am personally delighted that NYC did not cancel school today. Seems even with the higher totals, the delay in the onset of the heavy stuff argues for staying open. That said, the afternoon/evening commute could be historically bad. There are going to be major issues and it will be regretted. THe banding then is insane. looking so much better low for western LI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I still don't really have a good feel for how much Western Nassau county can get. When would be the last of the accumulating snow? 6PM, Midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 SPC has a thunderstorm outlook for later on for NYC and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, sferic said: I still don't really have a good feel for how much Western Nassau county can get. When would be the last of the accumulating snow? 6PM, Midnight? Overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: SPC has a thunderstorm outlook for later on for NYC and NJ. It will be cool see the snowfall rates associated with this convective blob/CCB moving in later. I can't remember the HRRR showing such a big 50 dbz+ core outside thunderstorm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There are going to be major issues and it will be regretted. THe banding then is insane. looking so much better low for western LI! I agree. I am being entirely selfish. I may have to leave work early and go for a JebWalk home (MSG to !01 st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 To give an idea of the source airmass for our CCB, the CAMs are insistent that big, long lived supercells are going to pop this evening at the triple point over the edge of the Gulf Stream, about 150mi east of Ocean City. This has been observed with other shoulder-season noreasters (more fall than spring) but it’s not common when it’s cold enough to snow in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be cool see the snowfall rates associated with this convective blob/CCB moving in later. I can't remember the HRRR showing a big 50 dbz+ core outside thunderstorm season. If that verified I would have to imagine rates would be 5/6” hour. They would be more but you may actually end up with some grapul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Im watching all these TV mets,,,,,let me ask you guys something,,,,MOST of the recent model runs trended colder and more EAST yet these clowns, some of them anyways are saying it will rain or mix in the City and Staten Island , boroughs ----Im a weenie and I want it to snow but using your head and not your heart---some of these guys are out of their minds. in keeping with thread, radar still looking good to the South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Im watching all these TV mets,,,,,let me ask you guys something,,,,MOST of the recent model runs trended colder and more EAST yet these clowns, some of them anyways are saying it will rain or mix in the City and Staten Island , boroughs ----Im a weenie and I want it to snow but using your head and not your heart---some of these guys are out of their minds. in keeping with thread, radar still looking good to the South I've always noticed that they run approximately 6-12 hours behind the models. With that said, I try not to have the TV news on too much with kids in the house. Everyday is something else insane, especially incorrect forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Wow! What happened overnight? Big accumulation difference from last night to this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Wow! What happened overnight? Big accumulation difference from last night to this morning Models went east and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Models went east and colder Yeah, I saw. I still have a full day of school, but after 3, I'm guessing, all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 All rain down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, sferic said: I still don't really have a good feel for how much Western Nassau county can get. When would be the last of the accumulating snow? 6PM, Midnight? 4-8" are likely. Don't be surprised if you see more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Important point to keep in mind. While many are focusing on the snow/liquid ratio, remember, that only affects snow depth, which to me is more of an "elegance" issue. With regard to impact on things like snow removal (force/energy needed for it) and the weight of the snow on trees and roofs, the same mass of snow falls regardless of the ratio, which is why I like using the 10:1 maps, as the conversion to mass is simple (you have no idea of mass with Kuchera). Same thing was true on 3/14 last year with the sleet - the mass of frozen precip was exactly as forecast - just didn't look as pretty, but was just as impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Nam has a big band over the city this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Via Twitter: crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 37s38 seconds ago More Primary low well off the coast. Occlusion building into the NJ coast with the mid level anchor developing. Development underway. Cold air pushing in rapidly with the incoming disturbance from the west. We've just begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Mesoscale Discussion 110 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CST Wed Mar 07 2018 Areas affected...eastern PA...central and northern NJ Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071347Z - 071745Z SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely to develop later this morning. Locally higher rates (2+ inches/hour) are possible primarily after noon local time within the frontal snow band and/or convectively augmented bursts. DISCUSSION...13Z surface analysis places a sub 1000mb developing low 60 mi ESE of WAL. Temperatures are in the 32-34 degrees F range from the northern part of Chesapeake Bay to NYC. The 12Z IAD RAOB from Dulles, VA showed a temperature profile subfreezing except immediately near the surface. The 500mb temperature was -25.5 C. Looping water-vapor imagery indicates the mid-level trough was located over the central Appalachians as of 13-14Z. As this disturbance approaches the region, strong mid-level ascent associated with the trough (leading to significant columnar cooling in the mid-levels) coupled with the northern periphery of a plume of steep 700-500mb lapse rates (7-8 degrees C per km) will combine and result in pockets of weak buoyancy and upright convection. Convection will increase in coverage from northern DE northeast towards the NYC area during the late morning into the early afternoon. Models indicate the development of strong frontogenetic forcing will begin primarily around or after 17Z. As the deep-layer large-scale ascent strengthens and becomes vertically juxtaposed with the intensifying frontogenesis, hourly precipitation rates will markedly increase from around 0.10 inch to 0.10-0.25 inch. Marginal surface temperatures will effectively result in a significant concern/limiting factor for the spatial coverage of 1+ inch/hour rates farther southeast across portions of NJ as a sharp rain/snow precipitation-type gradient becomes established. Eastern PA into northern NJ will likely maintain snow as the precipitation type and heavy snowfall rates will focus in a narrow corridor from the north part of PHL north-northeast into northern NJ. Higher elevations will likely attain the coldest temperatures (due to the low-level thermal profile cooling as elevation increases from sea level to 1-2 kft) and the most intense accumulation/hourly rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The 12z NAM is perfect for the whole metro if you like really intense snowfall rates. It's not a long duration event as modeled but if you believe the model, it will be a fun afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, eduggs said: The 12z NAM is perfect for the whole metro if you like really intense snowfall rates. It's not a long duration event as modeled but if you believe the model, it will be a fun afternoon. Yes intense rates from 2pm to 8pm according to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 12z NAM is perfect for the whole metro if you like really intense snowfall rates. It's not a long duration event as modeled but if you believe the model, it will be a fun afternoon. 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Yes intense rates from 2pm to 8pm according to the NAM. Best part is that it's predominantly during daylight hours. Going to be awesome to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Best part is that it's predominantly during daylight hours. Going to be awesome to watch. Correct... those rates are 2-4” an hour so could get a foot or more in a short period of time... evening commute looks like an impassable task! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Excellent moist inflow off the Atlantic right into the area. Radar returns are not expanding rapidly NW as modeled yesterday. That's probably a good thing for eastern and coastal sections and not so good for areas on the western fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looks like Monmouth might get slammed if the NAM is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, tempestatis014 said: Looks like Monmouth might get slammed if the NAM is correct The 3k nam likes interior central nj jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The 3k nam likes interior central nj jackpot Looking at the radar, that seems correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I'm. In Monmouth County an it's been raining all morning what time do y'all expect the switch over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I'm. In Monmouth County an it's been raining all morning what time do y'all expect the switch over Between 11 and 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I'm. In Monmouth County an it's been raining all morning what time do y'all expect the switch over I'd say around noon. Maybe a it later. Probably won't start to accumulate until around 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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