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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

So wait, if that happens, it would never mix or change anywhere on the island?  I think that's the classic track where the storm bends east around the latitude of ACY and heads for the benchmark.

 

The classic track is more of a hook from the outer banks to the BM. This is going to be a classic track after this storm, however 

The difference between these colder solutions and the warmer ones is that the lows are running into a brick wall and being forced eastward earlier. The earlier it goes east, the less warm air it can transfer northward and the less likely the dry slot comes into play

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Worst mayor ever

I'm going to take the bus to work soon. I just hope they don't suspend buses and trains. 

My car sucks in the snow so I parked it on the left side of the street last night.

Even worse, some news outlets are still only predicting 4-7 inches for NYC at this hour.

IMO, Upton should have went with 10 to 15".

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2 hours ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Huge shifts east. This storm will be a HECS for philly kn northeastward.

Don't trust last minute shifts when the storm is right upon us. It either shows the models can't get it right till it's right on top of us or plain wrong.

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11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Which models are those?

for Manhattan, snow depth sits at 2-4" until about 12hrs from now before it jumps up to 8-12"+ around 6pm onward.  looking at 6z rgem, 6z gfs, hrrr, etc.  

gfs_asnow_neus_fh12-18.thumb.gif.76ddae75d3102d468e2cb8dd3d8bfadc.gifrgem_asnow_neus_fh10-19.thumb.gif.8b558506e667467274b59aced0ff32c8.gif

nam3km_asnow_neus_fh12-21.gif

 

my point being, that people asking why schools aren't cancelled yet is because the heavy stuff doesnt get here (or at least doesn't appear so on the models) till after people are home at 5-6pm today.  

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Upton:

Noting showalters over roughly the southern half of the CWA
progged down to 2 to 4 this afternoon/early evening and elevated
CAPE (700 hPa based) over this same area up to a few hundred
J/kg - have added a slight chance of thunder to this area as
well. Note areas that do experience thunder, will likely see any
precipitation change to either all snow or a snow/graupel mix
if not already all snow. These areas could receive a rather
significant accumulation of snow, very quickly. Outside of any
convective enhancement and banding, expect maximum snowfall
rates of 1-2" per hour, but could see 2-4"/hr rates with any
convective enhancement and banding. Latest high-resolution
models suggest that banding should set up from NE NJ/Orange
County into interior SW CT. The most likely time for the banding
to occur is this afternoon - could see 6-10" of snow fall from
around noon-sunset across the NW 2/5th of the CWA.
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