Dino Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 well, looking at the models, most of the snow doesn't arrive until about 12hrs from now. This is more of a Wednesday-Thursday snowstorm, not a Tuesday-Wednesday like everyone expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 well, looking at the models, most of the snow doesn't arrive until about 12hrs from now. This is more of a Wednesday-Thursday snowstorm, not a Tuesday-Wednesday like everyone expected. Wait, really? I’m watching the radar and thought it was meh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 radar blossoming to the south, good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I’m still working from home. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 TWC has 12+ for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Dino said: well, looking at the models, most of the snow doesn't arrive until about 12hrs from now. This is more of a Wednesday-Thursday snowstorm, not a Tuesday-Wednesday like everyone expected. Which models are those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Huge shifts east. This storm will be a HECS for philly kn northeastward. Don't trust last minute shifts when the storm is right upon us. It either shows the models can't get it right till it's right on top of us or plain wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Which models are those? for Manhattan, snow depth sits at 2-4" until about 12hrs from now before it jumps up to 8-12"+ around 6pm onward. looking at 6z rgem, 6z gfs, hrrr, etc. my point being, that people asking why schools aren't cancelled yet is because the heavy stuff doesnt get here (or at least doesn't appear so on the models) till after people are home at 5-6pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 NAM and EURO go colder. Canadians go warner! We thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Latest from Upton ( 5:42 AM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Upton: Noting showalters over roughly the southern half of the CWA progged down to 2 to 4 this afternoon/early evening and elevated CAPE (700 hPa based) over this same area up to a few hundred J/kg - have added a slight chance of thunder to this area as well. Note areas that do experience thunder, will likely see any precipitation change to either all snow or a snow/graupel mix if not already all snow. These areas could receive a rather significant accumulation of snow, very quickly. Outside of any convective enhancement and banding, expect maximum snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour, but could see 2-4"/hr rates with any convective enhancement and banding. Latest high-resolution models suggest that banding should set up from NE NJ/Orange County into interior SW CT. The most likely time for the banding to occur is this afternoon - could see 6-10" of snow fall from around noon-sunset across the NW 2/5th of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, seanick said: Screw job on Boston, wow. Doubt they receive <1 though. Philly should be more as well. Looking great for greater NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6z gem-lam looks pretty sweet. Even for my area. Oh how we pray. Would flip after 00z and pound for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 6z gem-lam looks pretty sweet. Even for my area. Oh how we pray. Would flip after 00z and pound for a few hours. 1.6"-2" LE for 95% of this subforum. Pockets of 2"+ in CT & HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Rap has over a foot for NYC west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 14 hours ago, tmagan said: I think it will be much closer to 3". Bad call on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I am personally delighted that NYC did not cancel school today. Seems even with the higher totals, the delay in the onset of the heavy stuff argues for staying open. That said, the afternoon/evening commute could be historically bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, hooralph said: I am personally delighted that NYC did not cancel school today. Seems even with the higher totals, the delay in the onset of the heavy stuff argues for staying open. That said, the afternoon/evening commute could be historically bad. There are going to be major issues and it will be regretted. THe banding then is insane. looking so much better low for western LI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I still don't really have a good feel for how much Western Nassau county can get. When would be the last of the accumulating snow? 6PM, Midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 SPC has a thunderstorm outlook for later on for NYC and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, sferic said: I still don't really have a good feel for how much Western Nassau county can get. When would be the last of the accumulating snow? 6PM, Midnight? Overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: SPC has a thunderstorm outlook for later on for NYC and NJ. It will be cool see the snowfall rates associated with this convective blob/CCB moving in later. I can't remember the HRRR showing such a big 50 dbz+ core outside thunderstorm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There are going to be major issues and it will be regretted. THe banding then is insane. looking so much better low for western LI! I agree. I am being entirely selfish. I may have to leave work early and go for a JebWalk home (MSG to !01 st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 To give an idea of the source airmass for our CCB, the CAMs are insistent that big, long lived supercells are going to pop this evening at the triple point over the edge of the Gulf Stream, about 150mi east of Ocean City. This has been observed with other shoulder-season noreasters (more fall than spring) but it’s not common when it’s cold enough to snow in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be cool see the snowfall rates associated with this convective blob/CCB moving in later. I can't remember the HRRR showing a big 50 dbz+ core outside thunderstorm season. If that verified I would have to imagine rates would be 5/6” hour. They would be more but you may actually end up with some grapul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Im watching all these TV mets,,,,,let me ask you guys something,,,,MOST of the recent model runs trended colder and more EAST yet these clowns, some of them anyways are saying it will rain or mix in the City and Staten Island , boroughs ----Im a weenie and I want it to snow but using your head and not your heart---some of these guys are out of their minds. in keeping with thread, radar still looking good to the South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Im watching all these TV mets,,,,,let me ask you guys something,,,,MOST of the recent model runs trended colder and more EAST yet these clowns, some of them anyways are saying it will rain or mix in the City and Staten Island , boroughs ----Im a weenie and I want it to snow but using your head and not your heart---some of these guys are out of their minds. in keeping with thread, radar still looking good to the South I've always noticed that they run approximately 6-12 hours behind the models. With that said, I try not to have the TV news on too much with kids in the house. Everyday is something else insane, especially incorrect forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: Wow! What happened overnight? Big accumulation difference from last night to this morning Models went east and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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