weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Paragon said: So wait, if that happens, it would never mix or change anywhere on the island? I think that's the classic track where the storm bends east around the latitude of ACY and heads for the benchmark. The classic track is more of a hook from the outer banks to the BM. This is going to be a classic track after this storm, however The difference between these colder solutions and the warmer ones is that the lows are running into a brick wall and being forced eastward earlier. The earlier it goes east, the less warm air it can transfer northward and the less likely the dry slot comes into play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Let's get a new forecast package out. A certain mayor needs to make a certain decision about a certain public system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Does anybody have a snow map or precip map for the 6z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Does anybody have a snow map or precip map for the 6z NAM? Here you go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Huge shifts east. This storm will be a HECS for philly kn northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 And the 3K... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Can this make up for last March and the disappointment on Long Island ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Meteoropoulos said: Here you go... Beautiful. A lot of guidance is showing at least a foot for the area from central NJ up through the HV and then east to NYC and western LI. This one is looking like one for the ages for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Winter Storm Warning back up for Southern half of Nassau County and Southern Queens too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Upton mentioned thundersnow later and now upped NYC to 7-11 inches in their latest discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Worst mayor ever I'm going to take the bus to work soon. I just hope they don't suspend buses and trains. My car sucks in the snow so I parked it on the left side of the street last night. Even worse, some news outlets are still only predicting 4-7 inches for NYC at this hour. IMO, Upton should have went with 10 to 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 well, looking at the models, most of the snow doesn't arrive until about 12hrs from now. This is more of a Wednesday-Thursday snowstorm, not a Tuesday-Wednesday like everyone expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 well, looking at the models, most of the snow doesn't arrive until about 12hrs from now. This is more of a Wednesday-Thursday snowstorm, not a Tuesday-Wednesday like everyone expected. Wait, really? I’m watching the radar and thought it was meh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 radar blossoming to the south, good luck everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I’m still working from home. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 TWC has 12+ for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Dino said: well, looking at the models, most of the snow doesn't arrive until about 12hrs from now. This is more of a Wednesday-Thursday snowstorm, not a Tuesday-Wednesday like everyone expected. Which models are those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Huge shifts east. This storm will be a HECS for philly kn northeastward. Don't trust last minute shifts when the storm is right upon us. It either shows the models can't get it right till it's right on top of us or plain wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Which models are those? for Manhattan, snow depth sits at 2-4" until about 12hrs from now before it jumps up to 8-12"+ around 6pm onward. looking at 6z rgem, 6z gfs, hrrr, etc. my point being, that people asking why schools aren't cancelled yet is because the heavy stuff doesnt get here (or at least doesn't appear so on the models) till after people are home at 5-6pm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 NAM and EURO go colder. Canadians go warner! We thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Latest from Upton ( 5:42 AM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Upton: Noting showalters over roughly the southern half of the CWA progged down to 2 to 4 this afternoon/early evening and elevated CAPE (700 hPa based) over this same area up to a few hundred J/kg - have added a slight chance of thunder to this area as well. Note areas that do experience thunder, will likely see any precipitation change to either all snow or a snow/graupel mix if not already all snow. These areas could receive a rather significant accumulation of snow, very quickly. Outside of any convective enhancement and banding, expect maximum snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour, but could see 2-4"/hr rates with any convective enhancement and banding. Latest high-resolution models suggest that banding should set up from NE NJ/Orange County into interior SW CT. The most likely time for the banding to occur is this afternoon - could see 6-10" of snow fall from around noon-sunset across the NW 2/5th of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, seanick said: Screw job on Boston, wow. Doubt they receive <1 though. Philly should be more as well. Looking great for greater NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6z gem-lam looks pretty sweet. Even for my area. Oh how we pray. Would flip after 00z and pound for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: 6z gem-lam looks pretty sweet. Even for my area. Oh how we pray. Would flip after 00z and pound for a few hours. 1.6"-2" LE for 95% of this subforum. Pockets of 2"+ in CT & HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Rap has over a foot for NYC west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 14 hours ago, tmagan said: I think it will be much closer to 3". Bad call on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I am personally delighted that NYC did not cancel school today. Seems even with the higher totals, the delay in the onset of the heavy stuff argues for staying open. That said, the afternoon/evening commute could be historically bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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