Nibor Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This has the potential to be one of the top 5 largest March snowfalls in NYC recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Mt.Holly's update around midnight suggested they were waiting on this run to probably pull the trigger for more warnings and upping amounts. Definitely can see a 4/5AM package with new warnings and upping amounts where the previous I95 battleground was with higher amounts, but worded cautiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 @NorthShoreWx I should have just trolled with the 15:1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Awesome. I'm reporting snow obs furiously before they change to something that doesn't sound so good, and now this. I am going to bed with this fantasy in my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: @NorthShoreWx I should have just trolled with the 15:1 lol Considering it's probably subtracting some of the snow as rain due to warm surface temps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Snowing at a decent clip. Hardyston Township NJ -Near Walkwill Valley Regional High School. 34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: @NorthShoreWx I should have just trolled with the 15:1 lol You had me at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: This month has the potential to be one of the top 5 largest snowiest March snowfalls in NYC recorded history. Fixed it for you; I think next week's threat has great potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 [mention=290]NorthShoreWx[/mention] I should have just trolled with the 15:1 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 That being said, keep an eye on this-this is ground truth. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DOX-N0C-1-24 R/S line advancing north through DE/eastern MD. The real tale will be how far it heads north through coastal NJ tomorrow and when it stops advancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Snowing here at 33 degrees. Dusting on the deck. Let's hope everyone get's a great storm in terms of totals and no one loses power or has any damage. Enjoy all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnl13 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Can any of the more experienced guys, give me an unbiased opinion of whether you think this snow will accumulate on concrete? I know most March snows can have 8 inches on grass, and only 2 inches on concrete. I need to know whether I should schedule a plow to take care of all of my properties. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, rnl13 said: Can any of the more experienced guys, give me an unbiased opinion of whether you think this snow will accumulate on concrete? I know most March snows can have 8 inches on grass, and only 2 inches on concrete. I need to know whether I should schedule a plow to take care of all of my properties. Thanks in advance Given the potential for heavy snow in this, it won't have any problem accumulating on concrete where it's coming down. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnl13 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Given the potential for heavy snow in this, it won't have any problem accumulating on concrete where it's coming down. Where are you located? All over Queens. Thanks man I really appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Newest 6z HRRR has widespread 9-12" amounts from the city east through central Suffolk (6" at Riverhead) through 7pm with decent snow still coming down. Looks to be getting colder each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: Newest 6z HRRR has widespread 9-12" amounts from the city east through central Suffolk (6" at Riverhead) through 7pm with decent snow still coming down. Looks to be getting colder each run. Some of our locals are now saying there's a chance it never changes to rain except for the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Some of our locals are now saying there's a chance it never changes to rain except for the east end. In the last HRRR run I can't see anything besides the surface for Nassau/western Suffolk which could cause rain/sleet, very bottom of the column is 33-34F. 850-925 layer has been cooling off the last few runs. Eastern Suffolk has warmer surface temps which could mess things up. What a change from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: In the last HRRR run I can't see anything besides the surface for Nassau/western Suffolk which could cause rain/sleet, very bottom of the column is 33-34F. 850-925 layer has been cooling off the last few runs. Eastern Suffolk has warmer surface temps which could mess things up. What a change from this morning. Any change in the track of the storm? Late news mets were talking about a further east track to near the benchmark on PIX 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: In the last HRRR run I can't see anything besides the surface for Nassau/western Suffolk which could cause rain/sleet, very bottom of the column is 33-34F. Eastern Suffolk has warmer surface temps which could mess things up. What a change from this morning. Well it still hasn’t happened yet. But it’s pretty much the opposite of what happened last year. As the event got closer it kept getting worse. I’m still worried about you and I being so close to the water. The last thing we want is for garden city to get 12” and we get 3”. Still a distinct possibility. Once we get into the ccb it’s should rip everywhere and that’s when we safely accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Well it still hasn’t happened yet. But it’s pretty much the opposite of what happened last year. As the event got closer it kept getting worse. I’m still worried about you and being so close to the water. The last thing we want is for garden city to get 12” and we get 3”. Still a distinct possibility. Once we get into the ccb it’s should rip everywhere and that’s when we safely accumulate. Never can shake that risk here for sure, but I'm thinking we might be OK even down here. The HRRR trend toward a further south 850/700 low has been pretty steady the last few runs along with better soundings, and the Euro run backs it up. It's snowing to beat the band outside now and sticking on cars/grass. The trend toward a nice CCB is also a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6z nam destroys NJ, NYC and much of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6z NAM is even colder than 0z, heavy snow pretty much everywhere at some point and WOW at what it shows for the NYC area mid afternoon with crazy VVs at 700. CCB rakeage for sure, which pushes east later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: 6z nam destroys NJ, NYC An pretty much all of LI, maybe outside of the far East End Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.wx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 anyone got the website or pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: 6z nam destroys NJ, NYC Any sort of worry of mixing in NYC is pretty much gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 6z NAM is even colder than 0z, heavy snow pretty much everywhere at some point and WOW at what it shows for the NYC area mid afternoon with crazy VVs at 700. CCB rakeage for sure, which pushes east later. Looks even more like the Millenium storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Looks even more like the Millenium storm now. No, because that storm pushed north, this one looks to hit near ACY and pivot east. That also rakes east on the Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Good Lord... look at that convection heading toward Nassau/western Suffolk at 20z on the 3K nam. Where it's already moved over its super intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: No, because that storm pushed north, this one looks to hit near ACY and pivot east. That also rakes east on the Island So wait, if that happens, it would never mix or change anywhere on the island? I think that's the classic track where the storm bends east around the latitude of ACY and heads for the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 WOW!!! NYC, NNJ, LI get absolutely CRUSHED! CCB's are destroying NYC mid-day! Any chance of rain in NYC looks to be gone as well. My oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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