weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm assuming most of that is snow for most areas given the track? What do the thermals look like in the questionable areas, if that's not too much to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: I'm assuming most of that is snow for most areas given the track? What do the thermals look like in the questionable areas, if that's not too much to ask 925mb, 850mb and surface. Surface is a bit warm but that's fixable with heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: CAPE strength offshore has increased since last nights run. Love to see it move in even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: Holy God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: 925mb, 850mb and surface. Surface is a bit warm but that's fixable with heavy rates Thanks for these and all you do. yeah, 35 degrees with those rates? Not 100% ideal, buuuuuuuut that's going to accumulate nicely given the progged rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looking at: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/temperature-f/20180307-0900z.html Choose parameters for 850mb and 925mb temp. 850 temps never go above zero north of LBI pretty much. The worst 850 gets to around me is -3.5C, NYC about the same 925 temps never go above zero north of LBI, a little further than 850 zero. Most of LI has 1.0" or more liquid as snow. NYC seems to average about 1.2". The axis of max snow seems to run from just NW of Philly to I-287, though it's 1.2-1.5" liquid as snow. Maybe the algorithm here sees warm surface temps as rain, since 850 and 925 are definitely cold enough for snow for all of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: Thanks for these and all you do. yeah, 35 degrees with those rates? Not 100% ideal, buuuuuuuut that's going to accumulate nicely given the progged rates I don't think it will be 35. Closer to 32/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Weenie snow map anyone? These tend to crush people when they're wrong (which is often in marginal set ups). Up to you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 **nw crew has no need to worry except about subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 How much of a role do we think tonight's recon mission is playing in these model shifts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Weenie snow map anyone? These tend to crush people when they're wrong (which is often in marginal set ups). Up to you guys. Go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Eduardo said: How much of a role do we think tonight's recon mission is playing in these model shifts? I'm not sure if anyone could answer that since we don't know how they'd look without the recon mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: Go for it. . You of all people??? You're the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I don't see anything above the surface that would cause any of the precip on the Euro to fall as non-snow (outside maybe the twin forks). Epic run, no denying that. And it seems to have a smash with the CCB through LI on its way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: I'm not sure if anyone could answer that since we don't know how they'd look without the recon mission. Ya it's a counterfactual, of course. Looking for some informed speculation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I love you all. Let’s get that whole sub forum crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 This has the potential to be one of the top 5 largest March snowfalls in NYC recorded history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Mt.Holly's update around midnight suggested they were waiting on this run to probably pull the trigger for more warnings and upping amounts. Definitely can see a 4/5AM package with new warnings and upping amounts where the previous I95 battleground was with higher amounts, but worded cautiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 @NorthShoreWx I should have just trolled with the 15:1 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Awesome. I'm reporting snow obs furiously before they change to something that doesn't sound so good, and now this. I am going to bed with this fantasy in my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: @NorthShoreWx I should have just trolled with the 15:1 lol Considering it's probably subtracting some of the snow as rain due to warm surface temps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Snowing at a decent clip. Hardyston Township NJ -Near Walkwill Valley Regional High School. 34F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: @NorthShoreWx I should have just trolled with the 15:1 lol You had me at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Nibor said: This month has the potential to be one of the top 5 largest snowiest March snowfalls in NYC recorded history. Fixed it for you; I think next week's threat has great potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 [mention=290]NorthShoreWx[/mention] I should have just trolled with the 15:1 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 That being said, keep an eye on this-this is ground truth. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DOX-N0C-1-24 R/S line advancing north through DE/eastern MD. The real tale will be how far it heads north through coastal NJ tomorrow and when it stops advancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Snowing here at 33 degrees. Dusting on the deck. Let's hope everyone get's a great storm in terms of totals and no one loses power or has any damage. Enjoy all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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