weatherlogix Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Perfect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Kaboom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: Perfect? A little east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 And sweet closed 500 low too!! Euro FTW (hopefully). Just takes a 90 degree right turn almost from ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 40 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: I'm a few miles east of you, but this is a nailbiter for us at the moment. A lot of times you can see the rain writing on the wall even if you don't want to admit it, but this one is not a foregone conclusion. I was thinking a few inches of mush late this afternoon, but now I'm more intrigued again. It's been lightly flurrying here. No sleet; just snow. I have the same thoughts. I think 6-8” is a safe call now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Anxiously awaiting Euro QPF, then I can attempt sleep.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Oh boy! Lock it up. Nassau needs a new WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Euro is pretty much a perfect track for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm assuming most of that is snow for most areas given the track? What do the thermals look like in the questionable areas, if that's not too much to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: I'm assuming most of that is snow for most areas given the track? What do the thermals look like in the questionable areas, if that's not too much to ask 925mb, 850mb and surface. Surface is a bit warm but that's fixable with heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: CAPE strength offshore has increased since last nights run. Love to see it move in even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: Holy God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: 925mb, 850mb and surface. Surface is a bit warm but that's fixable with heavy rates Thanks for these and all you do. yeah, 35 degrees with those rates? Not 100% ideal, buuuuuuuut that's going to accumulate nicely given the progged rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Looking at: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/temperature-f/20180307-0900z.html Choose parameters for 850mb and 925mb temp. 850 temps never go above zero north of LBI pretty much. The worst 850 gets to around me is -3.5C, NYC about the same 925 temps never go above zero north of LBI, a little further than 850 zero. Most of LI has 1.0" or more liquid as snow. NYC seems to average about 1.2". The axis of max snow seems to run from just NW of Philly to I-287, though it's 1.2-1.5" liquid as snow. Maybe the algorithm here sees warm surface temps as rain, since 850 and 925 are definitely cold enough for snow for all of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: Thanks for these and all you do. yeah, 35 degrees with those rates? Not 100% ideal, buuuuuuuut that's going to accumulate nicely given the progged rates I don't think it will be 35. Closer to 32/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Weenie snow map anyone? These tend to crush people when they're wrong (which is often in marginal set ups). Up to you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 **nw crew has no need to worry except about subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 How much of a role do we think tonight's recon mission is playing in these model shifts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Weenie snow map anyone? These tend to crush people when they're wrong (which is often in marginal set ups). Up to you guys. Go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Eduardo said: How much of a role do we think tonight's recon mission is playing in these model shifts? I'm not sure if anyone could answer that since we don't know how they'd look without the recon mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: Go for it. . You of all people??? You're the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I don't see anything above the surface that would cause any of the precip on the Euro to fall as non-snow (outside maybe the twin forks). Epic run, no denying that. And it seems to have a smash with the CCB through LI on its way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: I'm not sure if anyone could answer that since we don't know how they'd look without the recon mission. Ya it's a counterfactual, of course. Looking for some informed speculation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I love you all. Let’s get that whole sub forum crushed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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