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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

As a Commack resident, I approve 

I'm a few miles east of you, but this is a nailbiter for us at the moment.  A lot of times you can see the rain writing on the wall even if you don't want to admit it, but this one is not a foregone conclusion.  I was thinking a few inches of mush late this afternoon, but now I'm more intrigued again.

 

It's been lightly flurrying here.  No sleet; just snow.

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Yes it's unlikely they will need more snow days this year, go ahead and use one. If you use them all take a day or two from the break. I've done that many times, in 96 we got Good Friday and that was it.

unfortunately if they are closed it will be a early morning 5:00am call from the city..i would not blame the city early today it looked like a non event...

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4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm a few miles east of you, but this is a nailbiter for us at the moment.  A lot of times you can see the rain writing on the wall even if you don't want to admit it, but this one is not a foregone conclusion.  I was thinking a few inches of mush late this afternoon, but now I'm more intrigued again.

 

It's been lightly flurrying here.  No sleet; just snow.

With respect to the post he quoted, that was for the hi-ref Canadian, but I only had it out to 21 at the time. It got better further east after that as well. LI is among the toughest forecasts with this storm for sure 

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Just now, nycwinter said:

i believe the public schools in nyc were closed for one day only..

It was 2 and a delayed opening. The only snow days of my life in NY. It was the first time nyc schools were closed for snow since the 1970s. At the time snow days was a myth to me, or a idea reserved for surburban towns only.  Warning level snowfalls were less common then or at least it seem so, and blizzard of 96 was paralyzing beyond anything I could of imagined at the time. 

Back then I would of never believed the snow run of the 2000s was possible in NYC or near the coast in general. 

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1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

that is shocking  i stand corrected... it was huge storm but not worthy of 2 days schools being closed...

Queens was paralyzed -- almost as bad as Boxing Day. I lived in an apartment at the time so I have no real recollection of anything other than having the days off, watching the snow fall, and being "too cool" to play in the snow (I was 15 going on 50.) But I do remember very clearly being trapped in the apartment.

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HRRR is remaining with a very tough gradient along just away from the coast in Monmouth, up to around me and NE into Suffolk through early afternoon (rain eastern Suffolk). Seems like the most recent run is going with a change to very heavy snow through much of Suffolk County by 4-5pm after there's a battle with rain/mix with a while before. By 5pm, all west of Rte 110 are 6"+, with heavy snow still falling. 

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018030704&fh=18

This should show the end of the 4z HRRR run. Heavy snow falling for most of LI and NYC, good snow back west into NJ, and 6+ on the ground west of Rte 110. 

Could be a good bit more if the rain snow line stays 15 miles SE of this run in the early afternoon. It fights back and forth it seems south and east of the city and rains for a good part of Suffolk due to the warm surface air. 

And ever so slightly, the HRRR is getting colder to the south in coastal NJ (Monmouth). 

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