Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GGEM has over 2"QPF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: According to New England thread, UKMET may have shifted a little east. Out already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuraVida Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Playing devils advocate a bit bc I don't buy the GFS temps either, but could we be downplaying the warming due to SL track? It comes up the coast more before going east than in our typical big hits...thinking about this from a NYC and LI perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: GGEM has over 2"QPF for NYC Christ on a bike, it even has at least 12" for Staten Island & JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, PuraVida said: Playing devils advocate a bit bc I don't buy the GFS temps either, but could we be downplaying the warming due to SL track? It comes up the coast more before going east than in our typical big hits...thinking about this from a NYC and LI perspective Toss them as far as you can throw them. They busted 9 degrees too high for me last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Yep. GEM map on WxBell is amazing for NYC...awful for coastal Monmouth south & east of Jones Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said: Christ on a bike, it even has at least 12" for Staten Island & JFK Yeah I think I just saw JC ride by as well on his way over the Goethals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Forecast totals are about to go way up if these amounts are accurate. The potential for widespread tree damage and power outages is a huge conern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Off-topic but the cmc and gfs has a big storm next week. CMC is very close with a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Thinking 10-16” IMBY might be too low. I could see 18-24” here in isolated spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Mark McIntyre said: Yep. GEM map on WxBell is amazing for NYC...awful for coastal Monmouth south & east of Jones Beach Yep. I still think further east on LI has more work to do to overcome the initial surge of warm air. There's a good amount of SE flow aloft that comes from the 850 low being so far west initially. That looks a little worse than the RGEM, and makes me think early to mid afternoon is the crunch time where I am to see if the rain line crashes in or stays just off the beach. It'll still be really close. 850s on most models so far stay below zero or come very close here, so it might stay snow. The real winner so far is most of NYC-just a crushing coming in so far tonight. Could be well over a foot for much of the city. I think there's a real shot at schools being closed overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Off-topic but the cmc and gfs has a big storm next week. CMC is very close with a huge storm. Is it snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep. I still think further east on LI has more work to do to overcome the initial surge of warm air. There's a good amount of SE flow aloft that comes from the 850 low being so far west initially. That looks a little worse than the RGEM, and makes me think early to mid afternoon is the crunch time where I am to see if the rain line crashes in or stays just off the beach. It'll still be really close. 850s on most models so far stay below zero or come very close here, so it might stay snow. The real winner so far is most of NYC-just a crushing coming in so far tonight. Could be well over a foot for much of the city. I think there's a real shot at schools being closed overnight. Yep the 850 and 700 lows are what I'm monitoring. So far they're staying well southeast of Staten Island so I'm hopeful. And agreed about the early/mid afternoon being crunch time. My mother is a paraprofessional and I really really hope they make the call to close schools. They should have done so earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 My final call 12 inches for central park south queens 22 inches by rockaways. Sussex 27 inches Bronx 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thinking 10-16” IMBY might be too low. I could see 18-24” here in isolated spots. You'd be in the spot for that if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thinking 10-16” IMBY might be too low. I could see 18-24” here in isolated spots. I like your maps, updating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said: Yep the 850 and 700 lows are what I'm monitoring. So far they're staying well southeast of Staten Island so I'm hopeful. And agreed about the early/mid afternoon being crunch time. My mother is a paraprofessional and I really really hope they make the call to close schools. They should have done so earlier. The paras are the most under-appreciated people in the schools. Paid peanuts and asked to help with the neediest kids. As a case manager, I try to get the best paras to my kids. Makes a big difference in their progress. I can't imagine given this new info that they won't reconsider closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, sferic said: Is it snow? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 0z hi res rgem has over a foot for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 0z hi res rgem has over a foot for NYC At least as far as I can see on TT, it looks great north of the LIE and west of say Commack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: At least as far as I can see on TT, it looks great north of the LIE and west of say Commack Areas to the west also get hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Off-topic but the cmc and gfs has a big storm next week. CMC is very close with a huge storm. looking at h5 it's close to a triple phased storm...the most northern stream seems a bit slow to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Areas to the west also get hit hard Oh yeah, no doubt. Through the whole thing 95% of our subforum do amazingly on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Man, it's gonna be a nail biter down on the south shore tomorrow early afternoon. The hi res RGEM actually took totals down here since we fight back and forth for a time. But after 21z, the CCB looks to swing through and much more of Long Island sees significant totals from that. Riverhead gets something like 8-10" this run vs. 1" last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Mark McIntyre said: yep my mother deals almost exclusively with special needs children, whether it be autism, Asperger's, diabetes, CF. Does so much for the kids. And I know that she is worried about having to go to work tomorrow despite having a newer Jeep 4x4. I really really REALLY hope Mayor Zero Vision reconsiders. Aides are only for special needs kids. It is the most restrictive thing you can do to a kid under the law. But some kids really need them. We'd be unable to run some programs without them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 TWC calling for 12-18" for NYC on it's storm tracking graphics. Might be pretty accurate if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Can't believe de blasio didn't make an announcement at 11:00PM 5:00 am LAST HOPE BUT BY THEN MANY ARE UP AND READY TO LEAVE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, sferic said: Can't believe de blasio didn't make an announcement at 11:00PM 5:00 am LAST HOPE BUT BY THEN MANY ARE UP AND READY TO LEAVE.. If you can survive a snowstorm you can survive algebra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Man, it's gonna be a nail biter down on the south shore tomorrow early afternoon. The hi res RGEM actually took totals down here since we fight back and forth for a time. But after 21z, the CCB looks to swing through and much more of Long Island sees significant totals from that. Riverhead gets something like 8-10" this run vs. 1" last run. Wow. If that comes to fruition, parts of NYC and Northern LI could see 18+".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 If these colder solutions end up verifying, a lot of people are going to be caught off guard, potential exists for a disastrous evening commute on LI. It will be bad elsewhere, of course, but I think at this point most people, if not everyone, expects that in the LHV, eastern PA, northern NJ etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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