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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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Playing devils advocate a bit bc I don't buy the GFS temps either, but could we be downplaying the warming due to SL track?  It comes up the coast more before going east than in our typical big hits...thinking about this from a NYC and LI perspective

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1 minute ago, PuraVida said:

Playing devils advocate a bit bc I don't buy the GFS temps either, but could we be downplaying the warming due to SL track?  It comes up the coast more before going east than in our typical big hits...thinking about this from a NYC and LI perspective

Toss them as far as you can throw them. They busted 9 degrees too high for me last week.

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Just now, Mark McIntyre said:

Yep. GEM map on WxBell is amazing for NYC...awful for coastal Monmouth south & east of Jones Beach

cmc_snow_acc_nyc_5.png

Yep. I still think further east on LI has more work to do to overcome the initial surge of warm air. There's a good amount of SE flow aloft that comes from the 850 low being so far west initially. That looks a little worse than the RGEM, and makes me think early to mid afternoon is the crunch time where I am to see if the rain line crashes in or stays just off the beach. It'll still be really close. 850s on most models so far stay below zero or come very close here, so it might stay snow. 

The real winner so far is most of NYC-just a crushing coming in so far tonight. Could be well over a foot for much of the city. I think there's a real shot at schools being closed overnight. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. I still think further east on LI has more work to do to overcome the initial surge of warm air. There's a good amount of SE flow aloft that comes from the 850 low being so far west initially. That looks a little worse than the RGEM, and makes me think early to mid afternoon is the crunch time where I am to see if the rain line crashes in or stays just off the beach. It'll still be really close. 850s on most models so far stay below zero or come very close here, so it might stay snow. 

The real winner so far is most of NYC-just a crushing coming in so far tonight. Could be well over a foot for much of the city. I think there's a real shot at schools being closed overnight. 

Yep the 850 and 700 lows are what I'm monitoring. So far they're staying well southeast of Staten Island so I'm hopeful.

And agreed about the early/mid afternoon being crunch time. My mother is a paraprofessional and I really really hope they make the call to close schools. They should have done so earlier.

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10 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said:

Yep the 850 and 700 lows are what I'm monitoring. So far they're staying well southeast of Staten Island so I'm hopeful.

And agreed about the early/mid afternoon being crunch time. My mother is a paraprofessional and I really really hope they make the call to close schools. They should have done so earlier.

The paras are the most under-appreciated people in the schools. Paid peanuts and asked to help with the neediest kids. As a case manager, I try to get the best paras to my kids. Makes a big difference in their progress. I can't imagine given this new info that they won't reconsider closing.

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Man, it's gonna be a nail biter down on the south shore tomorrow early afternoon. The hi res RGEM actually took totals down here since we fight back and forth for a time. But after 21z, the CCB looks to swing through and much more of Long Island sees significant totals from that. Riverhead gets something like 8-10" this run vs. 1" last run. 

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1 minute ago, Mark McIntyre said:

yep my mother deals almost exclusively with special needs children, whether it be autism, Asperger's, diabetes, CF. Does so much for the kids. And I know that she is worried about having to go to work tomorrow despite having a newer Jeep 4x4. I really really REALLY hope Mayor Zero Vision reconsiders.

Aides are only for special needs kids. It is the most restrictive thing you can do to a kid under the law. But some kids really need them. We'd be unable to run some programs without them.  

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Man, it's gonna be a nail biter down on the south shore tomorrow early afternoon. The hi res RGEM actually took totals down here since we fight back and forth for a time. But after 21z, the CCB looks to swing through and much more of Long Island sees significant totals from that. Riverhead gets something like 8-10" this run vs. 1" last run. 
Wow. If that comes to fruition, parts of NYC and Northern LI could see 18+"....
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If these colder solutions end up verifying, a lot of people are going to be caught off guard, potential exists for a disastrous evening commute on LI.

It will be bad elsewhere, of course, but I think at this point most people, if not everyone, expects that in the LHV, eastern PA, northern NJ etc

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