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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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Changing the forecast is okay, it's more the way they do it. As in, why were they so intransigent for March '17? Why would they lower totals today based off a couple runs of the NAM, when other guidance still supported the higher totals? This isn't to bash NWS either, it's just that they seem erratic at times. 
Because guidance did not. When in doubt go lower. Last year Upton caught a considerable amount of slack because everyone listened and nothing happened. It's the proverbial crying wolf, a similar effect as Irene before Sandy. I also know that many emergency operations managers and heads of various agencies such as DOT raised absolute h*ll for the blown forecast.
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I'm convinced the GFS would forecast 50 degrees in an industrial freezer at this point.

For example, with the low moving into the Cape and northwesterly winds, the GFS has a surface temperature of 39 degrees on the north shore of LI. Yeah, no.

Hard time believing that's not more in the way of snow over NYC and LI

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Just now, weatherbear5 said:

I'm convinced the GFS would forecast 50 degrees in an industrial freezer at this point.

For example, with the low moving into the Cape and northwesterly winds, the GFS has a surface temperature of 39 degrees on the north shore of LI. Yeah, no.

Hard time believing that's not more in the way of snow over NYC and LI

Forget the clown maps and track the mid level lows instead. If they go SE, it’s a good sign. If you’re NW of the 850 and 700 lows, you should be good. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said:

I'm convinced the GFS would forecast 50 degrees in an industrial freezer at this point.

For example, with the low moving into the Cape and northwesterly winds, the GFS has a surface temperature of 39 degrees on the north shore of LI. Yeah, no.

Hard time believing that's not more in the way of snow over NYC and LI

Looking at it without BL temps and ptype maps, its a snowstorm on the GFS for a Lot of people.

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Just now, jm1220 said:

Forget the clown maps and track the mid level lows instead. If they go SE, it’s a good sign. If you’re NW of the 850 and 700 lows, you should be good. 

That's the gist of it, as we've discussed ad nauseum the GFS's low level thermal profiles are just atrocious. Like the past 3 months of Islanders hockey atrocious

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

CCB? Or are you feeling the Canadian love?

Maybe he's a fan of Warhol paintings?

as per the GFS, you're absolutely right. Mid level temps are much cooler. 900 and below make little to no sense. The important part was it shifted way southeast and was colder aloft

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Playing devils advocate a bit bc I don't buy the GFS temps either, but could we be downplaying the warming due to SL track?  It comes up the coast more before going east than in our typical big hits...thinking about this from a NYC and LI perspective

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1 minute ago, PuraVida said:

Playing devils advocate a bit bc I don't buy the GFS temps either, but could we be downplaying the warming due to SL track?  It comes up the coast more before going east than in our typical big hits...thinking about this from a NYC and LI perspective

Toss them as far as you can throw them. They busted 9 degrees too high for me last week.

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Just now, Mark McIntyre said:

Yep. GEM map on WxBell is amazing for NYC...awful for coastal Monmouth south & east of Jones Beach

cmc_snow_acc_nyc_5.png

Yep. I still think further east on LI has more work to do to overcome the initial surge of warm air. There's a good amount of SE flow aloft that comes from the 850 low being so far west initially. That looks a little worse than the RGEM, and makes me think early to mid afternoon is the crunch time where I am to see if the rain line crashes in or stays just off the beach. It'll still be really close. 850s on most models so far stay below zero or come very close here, so it might stay snow. 

The real winner so far is most of NYC-just a crushing coming in so far tonight. Could be well over a foot for much of the city. I think there's a real shot at schools being closed overnight. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. I still think further east on LI has more work to do to overcome the initial surge of warm air. There's a good amount of SE flow aloft that comes from the 850 low being so far west initially. That looks a little worse than the RGEM, and makes me think early to mid afternoon is the crunch time where I am to see if the rain line crashes in or stays just off the beach. It'll still be really close. 850s on most models so far stay below zero or come very close here, so it might stay snow. 

The real winner so far is most of NYC-just a crushing coming in so far tonight. Could be well over a foot for much of the city. I think there's a real shot at schools being closed overnight. 

Yep the 850 and 700 lows are what I'm monitoring. So far they're staying well southeast of Staten Island so I'm hopeful.

And agreed about the early/mid afternoon being crunch time. My mother is a paraprofessional and I really really hope they make the call to close schools. They should have done so earlier.

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10 minutes ago, Mark McIntyre said:

Yep the 850 and 700 lows are what I'm monitoring. So far they're staying well southeast of Staten Island so I'm hopeful.

And agreed about the early/mid afternoon being crunch time. My mother is a paraprofessional and I really really hope they make the call to close schools. They should have done so earlier.

The paras are the most under-appreciated people in the schools. Paid peanuts and asked to help with the neediest kids. As a case manager, I try to get the best paras to my kids. Makes a big difference in their progress. I can't imagine given this new info that they won't reconsider closing.

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