weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem is coming in further east You couldn't just let me have that, could you LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: I threw in the towel late this afternoon Never under-estimate the power ofin large #s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, weatherbear5 said: Really hard to tell on the B&W maps... but to my eyes looks like the RGEM is a touch colder and a hair further south at 24 hours vs 36 hours on the 12z I'd rather South than east. Already had the most QPF pretty far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I'd rather South than east. Already had the most QPF pretty far east. Well that's the thing... east is fine, but you're right in that we want it "south" in that it doesn't gain enough latitude to dry slot and/or flood the region with warmth before it gets kicked east. Unfortunately, it's hard to extrapolate at 24 hour intervals to see the exact track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: We'll see. Let the runs play out. By far the most ridiculous map I've ever seen. That's the hour with convection everywhere. would be amazing for sure - looking at the current radar...that is one JUICED up storm and its not even started yet... also would like to note, my friend in Annapolis,MD reports dusting of snow and its 38deg there....sign of whats to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 NWS Mt Holly prepping to up totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: RGEM? According to the New England thread it’s coming in 30 miles or so SE of it’s last run. Not sure what to make of all this. Miracle incoming for the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: According to the New England thread it’s coming in 30 miles or so SE of it’s last run. Not sure what to make of all this. Miracle incoming for the coast? Such a run would probably be good for you...and many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 ICON with a sizable shift SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: According to the New England thread it’s coming in 30 miles or so SE of it’s last run. Not sure what to make of all this. Miracle incoming for the coast? It definitely shifted a bit SE, but does not look to made a big change in temps. Low is more consolidated and the precipitation is much more organized however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GFS, UKIE, CMC and Euro to go, if all concur, we have a great storm for most all of us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 RGEM is a go for NYC. 1.5" almost all frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 A decent shift for the Rgem. Shifted the snow a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I don't like to bash the NWS, but Upton's call to downgrade to WWA for some areas was just plain dumb. Even if the NAM's east shift is just a blip, why downgrade when still a number of models are showing significant snows and the storm didn't even start yet? Imo, if you go warning, you got to stay there until gametime. Dropping to advisory early lulls people into a false sense of security. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ace said: It definitely shifted a bit SE, but does not look to made a big change in temps. Low is more consolidated and the precipitation is much more organized however. I have to think if it’s consolidated and shifted SE, it’s good since it would draw the colder air in a bit better. It’ll be good if I’m not sweating the rain line surging up to the beach tomorrow afternoon. I still suspect that happens but hopefully there’s a bigger thump before that and we can have some goods behind the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: RGEM? Looks like it gets to ACY and goes ENE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, NortheastPAWx said: I don't like to bash the NWS, but Upton's call to downgrade to WWA for some areas was just plain dumb. Even if the NAM's east shift is just a blip, why downgrade when still a number of models are showing significant snows and the storm didn't even start yet? Imo, if you go warning, you got to stay there until gametime. Dropping to advisory early lulls people into a false sense of security. Last March Upton got plenty of egg on its face out here for overdoing things when most of Long Island barely made it to advisory level. A day before Upton was predicting 10”+ even for me, and it ended up 3” that was gone by the end of the storm. Schools were closed here for something that was very manageable in the end. I was definitely one to pay attention to the amped NAM and GFS runs and thinking they couldn’t be off that much. The Euro has also been too east a few times recently with storms, and it was trending west. It was also too cold here with the last storm and had significant snow even for me when I ended up with no accumulation. Upton made the tough call. These outcomes are decided by 30-50 mile shifts like these all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Last March Upton got plenty of egg on its face out here for overdoing things when most of Long Island barely made it to advisory level. A day before Upton was predicting 10”+ even for me, and it ended up 3” that was gone by the end of the storm. Schools were closed here for something that was very manageable in the end. I was definitely one to pay attention to the amped NAM and GFS runs and thinking they couldn’t be off that much. The Euro has also been too east a few times recently with storms, and it was trending west. It was also too cold here with the last storm and had significant snow even for me when I ended up with no accumulation. Upton made the tough call. These outcomes are decided by 30-50 mile shifts like these all the time. Damned if you. Damned if you don't. Tough job for the NWS. There is so much scrutiny of forecasters... add on top of that being a government agency, you're in for a ton of backlash if you even remotely get something wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Last March Upton got plenty of egg on its face out here for overdoing things when most of Long Island barely made it to advisory level. A day before Upton was predicting 10”+ even for me, and it ended up 3” that was gone by the end of the storm. Schools were closed here for something that was very manageable in the end. I was definitely one to pay attention to the amped NAM and GFS runs and thinking they couldn’t be off that much. The Euro has also been too east a few times recently with storms, and it was trending west. It was also too cold here with the last storm and had significant snow even for me when I ended up with no accumulation. Upton made the tough call. These outcomes are decided by 30-50 mile shifts like these all the time. Changing the forecast is okay, it's more the way they do it. As in, why were they so intransigent for March '17? Why would they lower totals today based off a couple runs of the NAM, when other guidance still supported the higher totals? This isn't to bash NWS either, it's just that they seem erratic at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 GFS SE thru 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Rgem over 12 inches for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 More or less the same thru 18, a tick SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, Nibor said: 11 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Changing the forecast is okay, it's more the way they do it. As in, why were they so intransigent for March '17? Why would they lower totals today based off a couple runs of the NAM, when other guidance still supported the higher totals? This isn't to bash NWS either, it's just that they seem erratic at times. They knew a 5-7 sleet storm was very dangerous and didn't want people to think it should be taken lightly. I did and got stuck right in front of the house. Ever been stuck on sleet? Took four adults to push me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Considerable shift SSE at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, weatherpruf said: They knew a 5-7 sleet storm was very dangerous and didn't want people to think it should be taken lightly. I did and got stuck right in front of the house. Ever been stuck on sleet? Took four adults to push me out. Ball bearings. 2007 was epic twice. I'll take 6" of sleet over a foot of snow any day. GFS definitely improved for NYC. Thermals will throw off clown maps but big improvement . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Way southeast compared to 12z Euro like now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: They knew a 5-7 sleet storm was very dangerous and didn't want people to think it should be taken lightly. I did and got stuck right in front of the house. Ever been stuck on sleet? Took four adults to push me out. My post was implying I sympathize with the National Weather Service. They have a tough job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 RE: GFS - Definite SE trend over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Nibor said: My post was implying I sympathize with the National Weather Service. They have a tough job. I wasn't meaning to respond to you with that comment; I was gonna post something else and changed my mind. Forgot to delete your stuff when I responded to the other poster. Didn't want to get too far off track, we're being monitored ya know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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