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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Great points! I think one of the retired accuweather mets ( Abrams? ) was going to write a book about that. Brian Fagan has written on the little Ice Age and Long Summer periods. And some of the game trails developed by following trails made by game looking for salt sources. The Mongols were headed to Japan but wiped out by the monsoon ( and inadequate ships ). What are you expecting up your way from this set up?

Hard to say. I'm a few miles inland from New Haven. Depending on how tucked this thing is, I could either have a quick thump over to sleet/rain, sort of like last March, or if it rolls under Long Island I could put up a great number. Gonna be fairly dense pasty snow most likely. Still, however it plays out, it should be fun.

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1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Is it me, or is this thing going to start way earlier than modeled looking at radar?

I feel like this happens a lot (at least to me when I am watching) but with the virga and some gaps between the early snows it comes in at around the predicted time.

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last 2 runs of the 1KM RPM nest over NYC trending colder/snowier. the 00z run is in full on beast mode - now indicating a city-wide blizzard with 8-12" and periods of heavy snow from 12-8PM. it's not far off the solutions the RAP and HRRR are showing. early indications from all 3 models for a period of convective snows 1-4PM, but as with all mesoscale weather, this timing could be off an hour or two. 

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