Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Can we ban anybody that does hourly updates here of the HRRR ? anyone logical of meteorology knows that model changes it’s mind every hour. When I see those posts...just reminds of some 8 year old kid that took too much red bull . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The latest run is so far west in the end of the 36hr extended version....Albany dry slots The 18hr POS not the HRRRRRRRRRRR X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 it's early, but.... What is this signaling?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, North and West said: What is this signaling? . Thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The latest run is so far west in the end of the 36hr extended version....Albany dry slotsWait... Does that mean it goes so far west that another lp develops on the trailing front and gives us snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Thundersnow Gfs shows thundersnow but the precip maps don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 No one can doubt there will be snow in the air with these vertical dynamics and a dew point of 28 possible in NYC. But 2M temps. never get to an actual 32---just as in the previous two snowfalls, this will be a 'self-cleaner' in the City, nothing left behind. Cobb Snow has nothing for the NAM or GFS now, never did for the GFS and the NAM is 3" mid-storm, with a self wash away----it was 20" yesterday for us. Hey, even Oct. 29, 2011, left some snow behind briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, nzucker said: He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches. I fully agree with this. Where ever the rain snow line sets up will delineate the low and high totals. Using past storms that’s around the LIE. So you could have 3” in wantagh and 12” in Great neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I fully agree with this. Where ever the rain snow line sets up will delineate the low and high totals. Using past storms that’s around the LIE. So you could have 3” in wantagh and 12” in Great neck Interesting these divides roughly form near our highways; in NJ the TPK seems to often be the dividing line; others might be 287 or 78 depending on the storm. Or maybe it's just our need as humans to see patterns. But the NWS also uses these; in this storm they are referencing the east side of the TPK as being on the lower end, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, North and West said: what is this signaling? yup, thundersnow. CAPE of 237 is nice with that amount of omega, but 700-500 lapse rates are pretty astounding at 7.9 C/km. it's very close to mixing in pellets, but that is technically a snow profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Interesting these divides roughly form near our highways; in NJ the TPK seems to often be the dividing line; others might be 287 or 78 depending on the storm. Or maybe it's just our need as humans to see patterns. But the NWS also uses these; in this storm they are referencing the east side of the TPK as being on the lower end, for example.Science does revolve around patterns.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Driving home heading west this evening, at the 287/78 junction, I had a 43F reading with rain/snow shower. I think that tells the tale of our atmosphere for this storm. Clearly very cold aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Interesting these divides roughly form near our highways; in NJ the TPK seems to often be the dividing line; others might be 287 or 78 depending on the storm. Or maybe it's just our need as humans to see patterns. But the NWS also uses these; in this storm they are referencing the east side of the TPK as being on the lower end, for example. Science does revolve around patterns.... Indeed. My question as a social scientist would be is there a relationship between these things. Were some highways developed because conditions were more passable during certain weather? And has your thinking changed at all on this particular storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Sorry but I don't have my laptop on me. Where are we seeing the possibility of thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Indeed. My question as a social scientist would be is there a relationship between these things. Were some highways developed because conditions were more passable during certain weather? And has your thinking changed at all on this particular storm..... Some roads might've been old game trails. Some of Boston's old roads were cow paths originally. At a broader level, you could argue our country might not exist today but for the timely intervention of weather. If dense fog had not allowed the surrounded and vastly outgunned Washington to escape from Long Island with his army, we might still be singing "Rule, Britannia." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 HRRR keeps shifting east and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 yup, thundersnow. CAPE of 237 is nice with that amount of omega, but 700-500 lapse rates are pretty astounding at 7.9 C/km. it's very close to mixing in pellets, but that is technically a snow profile. Thank you; does it indicate where it’s favorable to occur?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: HRRR keeps shifting east and colder Let's hope this translates into the upcoming nam and the rest of the 00z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, David-LI said: how much for LI? How much for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Some roads might've been old game trails. Some of Boston's old roads were cow paths originally. At a broader level, you could argue our country might not exist today but for the timely intervention of weather. If dense fog had not allowed the surrounded and vastly outgunned Washington to escape from Long Island with his army, we might still be singing "Rule, Britannia." Great points! I think one of the retired accuweather mets ( Abrams? ) was going to write a book about that. Brian Fagan has written on the little Ice Age and Long Summer periods. And some of the game trails developed by following trails made by game looking for salt sources. The Mongols were headed to Japan but wiped out by the monsoon ( and inadequate ships ). What are you expecting up your way from this set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: How much for Philly How much for Jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: How much for Philly Wrong sub-forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Just now, David-LI said: Wrong sub-forum I think he was being sarcastic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: How much for Jersey? How much for Miami? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 How much for the tri state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 How much for Guam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 How much for my backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 How much for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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