Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, nzucker said: He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches. Nate, I think it might be more like JFK 2" Bronx 8" which is still a pretty big gradient. Hopefully we'll all cash in with the southern storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Paragon said: Nate, I think it might be more like JFK 2" Bronx 8" which is still a pretty big gradient. Hopefully we'll all cash in with the southern storm next week. every model lost that second/third storm...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: every model lost that second/third storm...just saying That's a midrange thing, we'll have to see what happens after this one gets out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yea okay You really think it's a good model ? LOL C'mon tony.. you know it's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Standing on the jersey beaches winds were already howling out of the east southeast. That's not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 anyone peek at the 22Z HRRR....was Delaware supposed to get a foot of snow in 4 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs text output has thundersnow for NYC tomorrow. The thermal temps are a joke. Gfs Is mostly snow for the area. how much for LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 save this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 save this image Porque? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: anyone peek at the 22Z HRRR....was Delaware supposed to get a foot of snow in 4 hours? HRRR is not in it's wheelhouse yet. If it still has that in a few runs then I would think it's legitimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 32 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Just looked up your town, you aren't far east at all; what's the nearest inlet? I may have been fishing up that way once or twice. Anyway if you are going to rain it will be real close for me. For some reason I thought you were way out there. And yet we've had big differences in snow amounts. East Rockaway Inlet on the west end of the island, Jones Inlet on the east end. We’re not far out there but typically in these borderline events we find a way to warm up. We don’t need much either in terms of a cold trend but I can’t hang my hat on the high res RGEM which said I was getting a foot of snow the morning of the last event, and the Euro which said 8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Over running will overperform with this it seems late tonight into tomorrow morning. Maybe someone can pick up 2-4" from that alone before any influence from coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 I’d advise against the HRRR.... I usually follow the HRRR closely on storm days, and yet to be impressed, hard to trust a model that runs everhour, and makes large adjustments at that...I’d say 2-3 hours MAX to narrow down start/end time, band placement, but if your looking in this range for numerical substance of value, it’s a fools errand imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: East Rockaway Inlet on the west end of the island, Jones Inlet on the east end. We’re not far out there but typically in these borderline events we find a way to warm up. We don’t need much either in terms of a cold trend but I can’t hang my hat on the high res RGEM which said I was getting a foot of snow the morning of the last event, and the Euro which said 8”. Gotcha. Used to chase winter flounder near the Rockaway Inlet as they moved out; same for fluke in the fall back in the day. So you could actually rain there and Sound's shore to your north could snow? Or do you expect about the same from this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Gotcha. Used to chase winter flounder near the Rockaway Inlet as they moved out; same for fluke in the fall back in the day. So you could actually rain there and Sound's shore to your north could snow? Or do you expect about the same from this system? My eyes will be peeled to the dual pol radar in the morning and to hopefully any cold trends overnight. It’s rained here numerous times and snowed on the north shore. I don’t think there’ll be a huge difference this time, but the warm air is coming from the south, so we’ll be among the first on Long Island to change over unless the 850 low can trend SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My eyes will be peeled to the dual pol radar in the morning and to hopefully any cold trends overnight. It’s rained here numerous times and snowed on the north shore. I don’t think there’ll be a huge difference this time, but the warm air is coming from the south, so we’ll be among the first on Long Island to change over unless the 850 low can trend SE. Such differences in snowfall over short distances....I would leave the dock in Sewaren NJ in my skiff and fish off the Rockaways, did it lots of times. I guess it was around 30 mins on a flat sea ( wouldn't go there otherwise, but it was 30 years ago and time flies when going fishing ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdenzler Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 every model lost that second/third storm...just sayingCouple of years back... Here in SW Suffolk we had 0"... While 6-7 miles north in Commack they had 11"...We would up with 18"... They received 30"... Amazing change in only 6-7 miles.Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 We can all agree the HRrrrrrrrrr is trash, but it doesn't hurt to see it South and east, and more so each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 it's early, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: We can all agree the HRrrrrrrrrr is trash, but it doesn't hurt to see it South and east, and more so each run. The latest run is so far west in the end of the 36hr extended version....Albany dry slots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Can we ban anybody that does hourly updates here of the HRRR ? anyone logical of meteorology knows that model changes it’s mind every hour. When I see those posts...just reminds of some 8 year old kid that took too much red bull . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The latest run is so far west in the end of the 36hr extended version....Albany dry slots The 18hr POS not the HRRRRRRRRRRR X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 it's early, but.... What is this signaling?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, North and West said: What is this signaling? . Thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The latest run is so far west in the end of the 36hr extended version....Albany dry slotsWait... Does that mean it goes so far west that another lp develops on the trailing front and gives us snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Thundersnow Gfs shows thundersnow but the precip maps don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 No one can doubt there will be snow in the air with these vertical dynamics and a dew point of 28 possible in NYC. But 2M temps. never get to an actual 32---just as in the previous two snowfalls, this will be a 'self-cleaner' in the City, nothing left behind. Cobb Snow has nothing for the NAM or GFS now, never did for the GFS and the NAM is 3" mid-storm, with a self wash away----it was 20" yesterday for us. Hey, even Oct. 29, 2011, left some snow behind briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, nzucker said: He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches. I fully agree with this. Where ever the rain snow line sets up will delineate the low and high totals. Using past storms that’s around the LIE. So you could have 3” in wantagh and 12” in Great neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I fully agree with this. Where ever the rain snow line sets up will delineate the low and high totals. Using past storms that’s around the LIE. So you could have 3” in wantagh and 12” in Great neck Interesting these divides roughly form near our highways; in NJ the TPK seems to often be the dividing line; others might be 287 or 78 depending on the storm. Or maybe it's just our need as humans to see patterns. But the NWS also uses these; in this storm they are referencing the east side of the TPK as being on the lower end, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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