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March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)


Rjay

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3 minutes ago, nzucker said:

He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches.

Nate, I think it might be more like JFK 2"  Bronx 8" which is still a pretty big gradient.

Hopefully we'll all cash in with the southern storm next week.

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32 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Just looked up your town, you aren't far east at all; what's the nearest inlet? I may have been fishing up that way once or twice. Anyway if you are going to rain it will be real close for me. For some reason I thought you were way out there. And yet we've had big differences in snow amounts.

East Rockaway Inlet on the west end of the island, Jones Inlet on the east end. We’re not far out there but typically in these borderline events we find a way to warm up. We don’t need much either in terms of a cold trend but I can’t hang my hat on the high res RGEM which said I was getting a foot of snow the morning of the last event, and the Euro which said 8”. 

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I’d advise against the HRRR.... I usually follow the HRRR closely on storm days, and yet to be impressed, hard to trust a model that runs everhour, and makes large adjustments at that...I’d say 2-3 hours MAX to narrow down start/end time, band placement, but if your looking in this range for numerical substance of value, it’s a fools errand imo

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

East Rockaway Inlet on the west end of the island, Jones Inlet on the east end. We’re not far out there but typically in these borderline events we find a way to warm up. We don’t need much either in terms of a cold trend but I can’t hang my hat on the high res RGEM which said I was getting a foot of snow the morning of the last event, and the Euro which said 8”. 

Gotcha. Used to chase winter flounder near the Rockaway Inlet as they moved out; same for fluke in the fall back in the day. So you could actually rain there and Sound's shore to your north could snow? Or do you expect about the same from this system?

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1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Gotcha. Used to chase winter flounder near the Rockaway Inlet as they moved out; same for fluke in the fall back in the day. So you could actually rain there and Sound's shore to your north could snow? Or do you expect about the same from this system?

My eyes will be peeled to the dual pol radar in the morning and to hopefully any cold trends overnight. It’s rained here numerous times and snowed on the north shore. I don’t think there’ll be a huge difference this time, but the warm air is coming from the south, so we’ll be among the first on Long Island to change over unless the 850 low can trend SE. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

My eyes will be peeled to the dual pol radar in the morning and to hopefully any cold trends overnight. It’s rained here numerous times and snowed on the north shore. I don’t think there’ll be a huge difference this time, but the warm air is coming from the south, so we’ll be among the first on Long Island to change over unless the 850 low can trend SE. 

Such differences in snowfall over short distances....I would leave the dock in Sewaren NJ in my skiff and fish off the Rockaways, did it lots of times. I guess it was around 30 mins on a flat sea ( wouldn't go there otherwise, but it was 30 years ago and time flies when going fishing ) 

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every model lost that second/third storm...just saying
Couple of years back... Here in SW Suffolk we had 0"... While 6-7 miles north in Commack they had 11"...

We would up with 18"... They received 30"...

Amazing change in only 6-7 miles.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

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No one can doubt there will be snow in the air with these vertical dynamics and a dew point of 28 possible in NYC.  But 2M temps. never get to an actual 32---just as in the previous two snowfalls, this will be a 'self-cleaner' in the City, nothing left behind.

 Cobb Snow has nothing for the NAM or GFS now, never did for the GFS and the NAM is 3" mid-storm, with a self wash away----it was 20" yesterday for us.

Hey, even Oct. 29, 2011, left some snow behind briefly.

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1 hour ago, nzucker said:

He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches.

I fully agree with this. Where ever the rain snow line sets up will delineate the low and high totals. Using past storms that’s around the LIE. So you could have 3” in wantagh and 12” in Great neck  

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I fully agree with this. Where ever the rain snow line sets up will delineate the low and high totals. Using past storms that’s around the LIE. So you could have 3” in wantagh and 12” in Great neck  

Interesting these divides roughly form near our highways; in NJ the TPK seems to often be the dividing line; others might be 287 or 78 depending on the storm. Or maybe it's just our need as humans to see patterns. But the NWS also uses these; in this storm they are referencing the east side of the TPK as being on the lower end, for example.

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