Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: @DRZ1111 makes a fair point, IMO. I use climatology as a reference in weighing uncertainty when there is a large spread in the guidance. It reminds me to go back to look at the maps for various outcomes e.g., the 1960 case, which are available on NCEP's re-analysis page back to the late 19th century, hence my reference about the 1941 and 1960 storm's having colder air masses. I don't literally use climatology in the short-term, but just to go back to look at various outcomes. Actually he's wrong- he's talking about climatology from a statistician's point of view, which doesn't properly account for the recent rapid changes we have been seeing to the climate which models do not account for- there is no "regression to the mean." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: NYC schools will be open tomorrow. Taking a chance. They are probably thinking of last year. Can't blame them. When I was a kid they almost never closed. I think they closed in the 78 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said: NYC schools will be open tomorrow. Taking a chance. Good call. Even if NYC sees a foot of snow it's still travelable. We aren't talking about a paralyzing storm of two or three feet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: They are probably thinking of last year. Can't blame them. When I was a kid they almost never closed. I think they closed in the 78 storm. It's a good call, chances are this is nowhere near a school-closing kind of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, seanick said: Good call. Even if NYC sees a foot of snow it's still travelable. We aren't talking about a paralyzing storm of two or three feet here. Maybe but if they remain the snowy edge of the line...we're talking 1-3"/hr locally higher...Could be dangerous. They can easily make the call to make it 1/2 a day though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Are you refering to this? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: It's a good call, chances are this is nowhere near a school-closing kind of storm. Schools were closed in January when the forecast was for 6 -12. This storm will be close to that. It all depends on the ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: NYC schools will be open tomorrow. Taking a chance. They didn't say that. They just said they haven't cancelled YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Schools were closed in January when the forecast was for 6 -12. This storm will be close to that. It all depends on the ccb. schools only close in nyc..if a storm starts over night or at daybreak and will be heavy.. they never close when a storm at it's peak starts about noon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 42 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z Hi Res RGEM has near a foot for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Might be a good idea for Officials to wait for the 0z runs before making a call on schools. They can make the call overnight I believe. If there’s a trend east, might be a good call. The city could see over 8” if things trend just slightly cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Not digging all this SSE wind. Usually the kiss of death for the coast. I really think the only hope for some bigger totals on the south shore would be to get the ccb/deform to sit and rot at the end of the storm. This way it can transport in colder air. Before that it’s rain on the beaches for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, nycwinter said: schools only close in nyc..if a storm starts over night or at daybreak and will be heavy.. they never close when a storm at it's peak starts about noon.. No district I ever worked in did either; a noon start is a nightmare for staff, because many schools will not do early dismissals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Much warmer storm than January. City is all cement. May be bad, may not. The wind and blowing snow in January also factored in. I was surprised by the January call. He ended up being right; thought it was an early call. Schools never closed in the 80s and 90s...but it was a different time. Too much liability and too many cameras today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 ICON well west, better for NW folk bit pretty much nada city east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Started an obs thread for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: ICON well west, better for NW folk bit pretty much nada city east. The icon came out a while ago and it’s identical to 12z snowfall wise. It is on the western end of the envelope for sure but it’s certainly not “nada”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Not digging all this SSE wind. Usually the kiss of death for the coast. I really think the only hope for some bigger totals on the south shore would be to get the ccb/deform to sit and rot at the end of the storm. This way it can transport in colder air. Before that it’s rain on the beaches for sure Models are showing the winds turning to more of a NE direction. If the 500 low closes off, a deform snow zone should be around and pivot through. I doubt it would be more than an inch or two but that’s probably my only chance to walk away from this with anything left on the ground. I’m resigned to >50% of the liquid here falling as non-snow, likely rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: Models are showing the winds turning to more of a NE direction. If the 500 low closes off, a deform snow zone should be around and pivot through. I doubt it would be more than an inch or two but that’s probably my only chance to walk away from this with anything left on the ground. I’m resigned to >50% of the liquid here falling as non-snow, likely rain. Yeah I think us south shore peeps are just about cooked. I usually bet against March snow IMBY unless there's some compelling factor(s) suggesting otherwise. I was hoping that our finally seeing some NATL blocking would help us out, but seems like no dice on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: ICON well west, better for NW folk bit pretty much nada city east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Models are showing the winds turning to more of a NE direction. If the 500 low closes off, a deform snow zone should be around and pivot through. I doubt it would be more than an inch or two but that’s probably my only chance to walk away from this with anything left on the ground. I’m resigned to >50% of the liquid here falling as non-snow, likely rain. Just looked up your town, you aren't far east at all; what's the nearest inlet? I may have been fishing up that way once or twice. Anyway if you are going to rain it will be real close for me. For some reason I thought you were way out there. And yet we've had big differences in snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Eduardo said: Yeah I think us south shore peeps are just about cooked. I usually bet against March snow IMBY unless there's some compelling factor(s) suggesting otherwise. I was hoping that our finally seeing some NATL blocking would help us out, but seems like no dice on that. Yeah, this is why I'm never enthused about March snow around here without an arctic airmass in place. With all the city's urbanization, I'm not too enthused about them verifying warning level snows either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, weatherpruf said: Just looked up your town, you aren't far east at all; what's the nearest inlet? I may have been fishing up that way once or twice. Anyway if you are going to rain it will be real close for me. For some reason I thought you were way out there. And yet we've had big differences in snow amounts. He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Yeah, this is why I'm never enthused about March snow around here without an arctic airmass in place. With all the city's urbanization, I'm not too enthused about them verifying warning level snows either. What's interesting is watching the number of readers fluctuate all day; I've been home sick and noted the rise and fall of readers all day. Either everyone's at dinner or people are losing interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, nzucker said: He's being very pessimistic. JFK is forecast to receive 4" so he should get around that. I do expect a big gradient from the South Shore/JFK to Riverdale/Van Cortland Park. Wouldn't be surprised if the Bronx got a foot while the barrier islands only accumulate a few inches. The Bronx is always good for a little more; it's up there. Riverdale doesn't even feel like the Bronx. People retire there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Who cares . It's a crappy model. ill bet if it showed 2' you would care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Gfs text output has thundersnow for NYC tomorrow. The thermal temps are a joke. Gfs Is mostly snow for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Who cares . It's a crappy model. Yeah, I love Levi's site but putting the Sergeant Schultz model on TT wasn't the best move IMO. While I don't doubt that it might have some useful applications, mostly it's just weenie fodder that further muddies the forecasting waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: The icon came out a while ago and it’s identical to 12z snowfall wise. It is on the western end of the envelope for sure but it’s certainly not “nada”. It's clearly worse. If I was able to delet attachments I'd certainly post. Go on TT and toggle between 12 and 18z clearly more wet then white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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