Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: @DRZ1111 makes a fair point, IMO. I use climatology as a reference in weighing uncertainty when there is a large spread in the guidance. It reminds me to go back to look at the maps for various outcomes e.g., the 1960 case, which are available on NCEP's re-analysis page back to the late 19th century, hence my reference about the 1941 and 1960 storm's having colder air masses. I don't literally use climatology in the short-term, but just to go back to look at various outcomes. Don is one of the best non-pro forecasters around and frankly better than many of the Redtaggers. We see his verification scores routinely near or at the top in the ne.wx storm contests. He doesn't let emotion cloud his thinking or engage in wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Did anyone post the 3k NAM for 18z? Or is it only a two-run model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NYC has to be ****ting bricks deciding whether to close schools tomorrow. 1-2"/hr during afternoon commute from schools could be nightmarish, but the bust risk of having the parents of a million kids at home for some sloppy drizzle seems high here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: @DRZ1111 makes a fair point, IMO. I use climatology as a reference in weighing uncertainty when there is a large spread in the guidance. It reminds me to go back to look at the maps for various outcomes e.g., the 1960 case, which are available on NCEP's re-analysis page back to the late 19th century, hence my reference about the 1941 and 1960 storm's having colder air masses. I don't literally use climatology in the short-term, but just to go back to look at various outcomes. I thought you did pretty well. I think you provide a valuable amount of input here. Speaking as a social scientist, I don't know why your conclusion would be without merit, but then I am not a "hard" science kinda guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Don is one of the best non-pro forecasters around and frankly better than many of the Redtaggers. We see his verification scores routinely near or at the top in the ne.wx storm contests. He doesn't let emotion cloud his thinking or engage in wishcasting I’m not saying he was letting emotion alter his forecast. Rather, I’m saying it’s logically incorrect to adjust the forecast for climatology for an event that’s progged to being in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 HRDPS looks good for mostly snow in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: I’m not saying he was letting emotion alter his forecast. Rather, I’m saying it’s logically incorrect to adjust the forecast for climatology for an event that’s progged to being in 12 hours. I believe you said something like its beneath him to post what he did. A bit harsh. And frankly, not considering climo as a forecast consideration is throwing out a useful tool. That ought to be obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: "People" don't say that. Ask any of the folks on here who professionally develop models. It's been more than a decade since I was taught this, but my understanding is that folks have tried to prove the existence of trends and have failed. Your 'experience' is a function of bias - when models random walk in an obvious way, it doesn't stick in your head, but a 'trend' does. The human mind overfits patterns. The WPC keeps track of both model trends and biases. Sometimes people use the terms interchangeably to express predictable or repeating patterns of model error. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml NAM and GFS Model Trend Graphics These graphics supplement the Model Diagnostic Discussion by comparing 500-mb geopotential height and sea level pressure every 6-h from F00-F84 from the most recent 00Z or 12Z NAM and GFS model runs to output from the model initialized 12 hours and 24 hours earlier. Difference fields between the current and older runs can also be displayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I believe you said something like its beneath him to post what he did. A bit harsh. And frankly, not considering climo as a forecast consideration is throwing out a useful tool. That ought to be obvious. It’s not obvious that’s climo is a useful tool at this lead time. You guys don’t understand how forecasting works. The amount you regress to climo is proportionate to the uncertainty in the forecast which is proportionate to the lead time. think of it this way: how much snow NYC gets is almost entirely a function of the path of the 850mb low. What is the climatological path of the 850mb low. I’ll hang up and listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 We need RhodieRick back on the forum right about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: The WPC keeps track of both model trends and biases. Sometimes people use the terms interchangeably to express predictable patterns of model error. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml Yes - of course model biases are very real and they need to be understood and incorporated. No disagreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I could see a 2/13/14 situation developing where places just inland from the beaches stay snow as the heavy rates and east-turning low prevent further warm air from coming in. That's one way NYC could bust high. It would be really, really crappy for me but that comes with living on a barrier island. It happened then to me and I'm sure someday it will again. The hi-res RGEM seems to be showing something like this where warm air surges to the south shore and stops advancing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18z Hi Res RGEM has near a foot for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I could see a 2/13/14 situation developing where places just inland from the beaches stay snow as the heavy rates and east-turning low prevent further warm air from coming in. That's one way NYC could bust high. It would be really, really crappy for me but that comes with living on a barrier island. It happened then to me and I'm sure someday it will again. The hi-res RGEM seems to be showing something like this where warm air surges to the south shore and stops advancing. I've actually been thinking that about this storm in regards to 13 Feb 2014Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: It’s not obvious that’s climo is a useful tool at this lead time. You guys don’t understand how forecasting works. The amount you regress to climo is proportionate to the uncertainty in the forecast which is proportionate to the lead time. think of it this way: how much snow NYC gets is almost entirely a function of the path of the 850mb low. What is the climatological path of the 850mb low. I’ll hang up and listen. Well, Put your forecasts up in the ne.wx snowstorm contests, get statistically scored and we'll see how good you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I had a feeling upton would go with an advisory for the SS. I could see this being a total fail there. The biggest opportunity would be late in the storm with the ccb. Where I am at 120th and Broadway I think I do very well. This area isn’t just enough NW to do well in marginal events. I had 10” last march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Wow HRDPS still shows 12 + for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Did anyone post the 3k NAM for 18z? Or is it only a two-run model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 What's everyone thoughts on northern coastal Monmouth County? Any accumulating snow? Or just mostly a mix. I been reading an getting mixed thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I've actually been thinking that about this storm in regards to 13 Feb 2014 Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk I brought that up berfore. I think it’s an excellent analog for snow distribution. Obviously an entirely different setup but it gets you the same outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Franklin0529 said: What's everyone thoughts on northern coastal Monmouth County? Any accumulating snow? Or just mostly a mix. I been reading an getting mixed thoughts I'm in Middletown NJ and I wanna know the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Anything to these pressure falls happening pretty far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, kingbaus said: I'm in Middletown NJ and I wanna know the same thing. That's where I live. In north Middletown off bray ave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I brought that up berfore. I think it’s an excellent analog for snow distribution. Obviously an entirely different setup but it gets you the same outcome It's March if that happens now the coast is going to get 1-3 inches and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z Hi Res RGEM has near a foot for NYC What did the 12z run show for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 56 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: "People" don't say that. Ask any of the folks on here who professionally develop models. It's been more than a decade since I was taught this, but my understanding is that folks have tried to prove the existence of trends and have failed. Your 'experience' is a function of bias - when models random walk in an obvious way, it doesn't stick in your head, but a 'trend' does. The human mind overfits patterns. Model biases are a part of science. Trends do occur, whether they are short term (for a specific year) or long term is open to debate. Some of us believe that climate change may even play a role and that the models don't properly account for it, therefore storms are more amped than they used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ja643y said: Anything to these pressure falls happening pretty far south? pretty much all the guidance takes the low thru SC the next few hours...centered somewhere between CLT and CAE. this is where the strongest low-level warm advection is occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 18z Hi Res RGEM has near a foot for NYC Are you refering to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NYC schools will be open tomorrow. Taking a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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