Mitchel Volk Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, forkyfork said: you can make an argument for 15" or 3" in nyc. this is so annoying I so agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 fwiw the nam didn't cave in january 2015 until the storm already started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 This could come down to where parts of the tri-state see prolific snowfall rates and accumulations while areas a few miles away are heavy rain. Times like these is where I'm glad I pursued a different career and not forecasting. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you can make an argument for 15" or 3" in nyc. this is so annoying I think it will be much closer to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: fwiw the nam didn't cave in january 2015 until the storm already started Neither did the Euro. In fact, the Euro was wrong for both the Blizzard Bust and the Blizzard of 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Then go with history. Secret sauce. The thing guys like Nate Silver use to make predictions; intangibles. What else have you got when the science is limited out? So if we went with history, what would be your guess? For historical perspective, the last March snowstorm to bring 6" or more snow to Central Park occurred on March 14, 2017 when 7.6" fell. The last snowstorm to bring 8" or more snow to New York City in March occurred on March 1-2, 2009 when 8.3" snow fell. The last 10" or greater March snowstorm occurred on March 13-14, 1993 when 10.6" fell. The last March snowstorm to dump a foot or more of snow was the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard when 14.5" fell. Both the 1960 and 1993 storms had colder air masses with which to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Upton cancelled WSW for south shore of Nassau and Queens. Going with advisory. Good call IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: can we not talk about these...my anxiety is already up The Blizzard Bust was a bad wrong. The Blizzard of 2016 was a good wrong. At least this time it's not the only model showing a snowy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Makes ya really appreciate the cold all snow storms where the rain snow line is not a concern. Much less stressful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 14 minutes ago, tmagan said: I think it will be much closer to 3". Really going out on a limb with that one. How many 15" snowstorms have there been in NYC history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, doncat said: Makes ya really appreciate the cold all snow storms where the rain snow line is not a concern. Much less stressful I think north/west of the 78/287 intersection is probably locked in for warning snows. But here at the 95/pway/1/287/9 intersection we battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Correlation Coefficient radars for the win tomorrow. We will be chasing the heavy snow in North Jersey for 12. I am also concerned about the beaches- 50 mph winds is nothing to sneeze at and really only happens a handful of times a year. Manasquan OEM expecting minor to moderate flooding tomorrow - which will be day 6 of water in the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For historical perspective, the last March snowstorm to bring 6" or more snow to Central Park occurred on March 14, 2017 when 7.6" fell. The last snowstorm to bring 8" or more snow to New York City in March occurred on March 1-2, 2009 when 8.3" snow fell. The last 10" or greater March snowstorm occurred on March 13-14, 1993 when 10.6" fell. The last March snowstorm to dump a foot or more of snow was the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard when 14.5" fell. Both the 1960 and 1993 storms had colder air masses with which to work. you answered my previous question. Other than 1888 has there been a 15"+ snow fall in NYC history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, USCG RS said: This could come down to where parts of the tri-state see prolific snowfall rates and accumulations while areas a few miles away are heavy rain. Times like these is where I'm glad I went OEM/counterterrorism and not forecasting. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For historical perspective, the last March snowstorm to bring 6" or more snow to Central Park occurred on March 14, 2017 when 7.6" fell. The last snowstorm to bring 8" or more snow to New York City in March occurred on March 1-2, 2009 when 8.3" snow fell. The last 10" or greater March snowstorm occurred on March 13-14, 1993 when 10.6" fell. The last March snowstorm to dump a foot or more of snow was the March 3-4, 1960 blizzard when 14.5" fell. Both the 1960 and 1993 storms had colder air masses with which to work. So we can deduce that the storm, at least for NYC, will be less than ten inches in all likelihood ( no surprise there ) and a good chance it will be less than 8. Now we have to ask how many storms were less than 6? If there are a lot more, then the probability would increase for that. Next we could ask how many were less than 4? And so on. What do you think, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: you answered my previous question. Other than 1888 has there been a 15"+ snow fall in NYC history? Yes. March 7-8, 1941 18.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 If you use the Euro’s slow ticks you can assume it’ll tick warmer next two runs. That may be what Upton is thinking there. It’s become obvious it makes gradual moves until real time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Icon looks the same as the 12z run. Maybe a hair SE at hr 33 when is starting to move east but that’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. March 7-8, 1941 18.1". Thanks Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: No, you can't deduce that. That's now how this works. That's not how any of this works. I take it you mean that each storm is different. I buy that. But history matters too. We have pros here saying they are having trouble making a prediction. I'm glad I don't have to base my living on something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 19 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you can make an argument for 15" or 3" in nyc. this is so annoying totally agree with both of you. this is kind of fun for me because i'm off and will enjoy seeing whatever ultimately happens. the only thing i know for sure is that this'll be another kick-ass nor'easter, and i don't think the dynamics and instability will disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 and the RGEM is WAY west EDIT - trying to post the B&W maps...wont let me EDIT 2 - still looks OK....the B&W maps are crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So we can deduce that the storm, at least for NYC, will be less than ten inches in all likelihood ( no surprise there ) and a good chance it will be less than 8. Now we have to ask how many storms were less than 6? If there are a lot more, then the probability would increase for that. Next we could ask how many were less than 4? And so on. What do you think, Don? Taking into consideration today’s guidance and historic climatology 4”-8” for Central Park and 3”-6” for JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Taking into consideration today’s guidance and historic climatology 4”-8” for Central Park and 3”-6” for JFK. Thanks Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18Z RGEM it is definitely warmer, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Again pay attention, not to how west/east it is near ACY or south, pay attention to where it takes a hard right/is forced underneath the block, RGEM at first appears heading way west, but still scoots it almost due east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: Again pay attention, not to how west/east it is near ACY or south, pay attention to where it takes a hard right/is forced underneath the block, RGEM at first appears heading way west, but still scoots it almost due east THIS. Its a touch worse in the areas that were on the border before. Basically east and south of TTN gets shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said: Again pay attention, not to how west/east it is near ACY or south, pay attention to where it takes a hard right/is forced underneath the block, RGEM at first appears heading way west, but still scoots it almost due east As long as the mid-level cyclones stay offshore we should be okay. Again, the biggest threat for busting low with this storm is the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Point and click has me up to 11-16" Warning is for 10-16" with localized amounts to 18" possible. Latest as of about forty minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: As long as the mid-level cyclones stay offshore we should be okay. Again, the biggest threat for busting low with this storm is the dry slot. for who..maybe for you but not for those of us in central jersey as we watch that rain line creep closer with every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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