Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 GFS is a beast, becoming clear it could be a small area, but someone in the northern mid-atlantic or New England will see intense snowfall and 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: GFS is a beast, becoming clear it could be a small area, but someone in the northern mid-atlantic or New England will see intense snowfall and 12"+ Looks like SCJ to S Jersey to me. If it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, snow1 said: We need the storm track further west so NJ can cash in. Right now it looks like a nyc east special Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It has the heaviest from West central nj up through CT. Too far SW for you and me pilgrim, though we would still get our consolation 5-7. Too early to say though. Doubting Thomas for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Too far SW for you and me pilgrim, though we would still get our consolation 5-7. Too early to say though. Doubting Thomas for the time being. We really need a good storm here. We have been shafted all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, snow1 said: We really need a good storm here. We have been shafted all year I wouldn't say shafted; we've had some decent snows, but nothing big. Aside from the freak warmth it would be a typical winter from the 80's, maybe even considered snowy by some. We just haven't cashed in since 2016 on the big stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 UKMET goes from 1003 off Norfolk to 990 off Maine in 24 hours. So track is likely inside the BM but it doesn’t deepen the system a whole lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I wouldn't say shafted; we've had some decent snows, but nothing big. Aside from the freak warmth it would be a typical winter from the 80's, maybe even considered snowy by some. We just haven't cashed in since 2016 on the big stuff. I agree with this statement. The 80’s were terrible for snow around here (Nassau county then). People don’t understand how fortunate they are comparatively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro looks like a SNE hit. East of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Euro not looking to good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, snow1 said: Euro looks like a SNE hit. East of the benchmark Gorgeous run for Central Suffolk as the CCB rolls right through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Ukie really nice hit though, 7-14” for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Yeah, Long Island hit pretty good on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Well tonight's 00z model runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 If you believe in the idea that the models tend to underdo the western extent of the precious shield and the track, NYC is in a great spot to be at this moment for snow. we shall see if that trend holds true for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Gorgeous run for Central Suffolk as the CCB rolls right through. Not so bad for us either...matches the NAM honestly. Terrific 12z model suite today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: Not so bad for us either...matches the NAM honestly. Terrific 12z model suite today. If the seasonal west trend under 72 hrs holds for this storm, then the JP may shift further west in later runs. Pretty impressive CCB on the sim sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 i'd be more worried about mixing than a miss east if i lived in suffolk county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 26 minutes ago, snow1 said: Euro looks like a SNE hit. East of the benchmark Given seasonal trends I'd say that's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 With our run to run inconsistencies, you definitely don't want to be jackpot 84 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 As is, that Euro run wasn’t too bad. Looked like maybe 0.7” liquid in Nassau, 0.4” or so in NYC. I also think it’ll tick back west and that this isn’t a bad spot to be in. I’d rather be here than on the rain snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 When would models have it arriving ? Still late Tuesday night/ Wed AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 There’s a lot of things you can say bad about the Euro this winter, but a progressive/too far east bias isn’t one of them. In fact, it’s been consistently way too overamped/west, not the other way around. The fact that it keeps going further east is definitely not a good thing. And the whole trend with the storms going further west earlier in the winter was with a ++NAO. We now have a strong west based -NAO, total 180 degree different setup in the Atlantic. If we still had the +NAO then yea, I’d definitely agree that the storm is going to trend west at the last minute, but that’s not the case now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Given seasonal trends I'd say that's a good thing. The earlier trend was when we had a strongly +NAO. Total different situation this time, night and day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: There’s a lot of things you can say bad about the Euro this winter, but a progressive/too far east bias isn’t one of them. In fact, it’s been consistently way too overamped/west, not the other way around. The fact that it keeps going further east is definitely not a good thing. And the whole trend with the storms going further west earlier in the winter was with a ++NAO. We now have a strong west based -NAO, total 180 degree different setup in the Atlantic. If we still had the +NAO then yea, I’d definitely agree that the storm is going to trend west at the last minute, but that’s not the case now It comes down to h5 capture. Storms such as this one tend to really cause havoc between LI and NJ crew...it will be difficult to have a scenario that allows both camps to win. IMO, not really worth getting hung up on this system. Daytime snow with this airmass will be underwhelming. Anything that accumulates will be gone in a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The track should be well west of where it was if the Euro at 500 and the surface were to be in sink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: There’s a lot of things you can say bad about the Euro this winter, but a progressive/too far east bias isn’t one of them. In fact, it’s been consistently way too overamped/west, not the other way around. The fact that it keeps going further east is definitely not a good thing. And the whole trend with the storms going further west earlier in the winter was with a ++NAO. We now have a strong west based -NAO, total 180 degree different setup in the Atlantic. If we still had the +NAO then yea, I’d definitely agree that the storm is going to trend west at the last minute, but that’s not the case now Euro was SE with this last system and progressively backed NW up until zero hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Eps is west of 0z and has a few inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I can’t get it to load on my phone right now, but I just read on twitter that the new EPS matches the 12z operational run and it ticked east It still has tons of members leaning west of the Op. I’m still more worried about this having mixing issues than missing. I don’t like the flow aloft off the East Coast from 72-96. I think the center could easily come over Long Island still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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