weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: With NYC schools and its 1.1 million students can this close schools? I think they have closed a few times now in recent years and didn't need to, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NWS Mount holly just cut back drastically on their snow map. South of Monmouth county is basically no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, snow1 said: NWS Mount holly just cut back drastically on their snow map. South of Monmouth county is basically no snow. can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: I think they have closed a few times now in recent years and didn't need to, so who knows. I can only speak for since 2017, but each time they were legit imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 not sure how to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Mt Holly has to be favoring the NAM and its variants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Huge bust potential near the fall line. Bit surprised by those further west tracks, the -AO/NAO should place this further east than suggested. It's not like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NWS Mount Holly Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, donsutherland1 said: NWS Mount Holly Map: Hey, that doesn't look that far off from my map, albeit they do have higher totals further South in PA than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strgazr27 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Metasequoia said: Thankfully running out of time for continued western shifts... What’s your reasoning for that? Still plenty of time for it to shift west. Just looking for solid reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The 18z NAM should be East of 12z based on H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: NWS Mount Holly Map: Actuallly an excellent call. I think that interior south jersey might to a tad better but this is pretty spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, snow1 said: That's actually a bit more for us than in their discussion, actually it 4-6 for MYBY. Which would be a decent March event for around here. Well let me say this, it wold be 6-8 up the block according to that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Huge bust potential near the fall line. Bit surprised by those further west tracks, the -AO/NAO should place this further east than suggested. It's not like last year. Maybe the negative PNA has something to do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 There is a possibility that it could start snowing before sunrise, and then almost stop or taper off before the main action begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z NAM should be East of 12z based on H5. looks like the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, friedmators said: looks like the opposite I disagree, the trough is going negative tilt slower, and because of that the H5 low should be slightly delayed in closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Hey, that doesn't look that far off from my map, albeit they do have higher totals further South in PA than I do. Looks like a very typical late winter storm for these parts. It could over perform or underperform, but I have people around me in schools and hospitals in a panic that we are seeing a 12-14 inch blizzard. This is what happens. Now talking to some old timers this morning in the mall, not a one believed we would see more than a few inches. Of course, they don't have to work in it anyway..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 So far 994mb off the DE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 We want this storm to close off just off the coast so that it pulls the SLP Northward and then Eastward as it begins to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 989mb off the NJ coast, going to be another tremendous hit for the interior at a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 What does "close off" exactly mean in meteorology terms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 We made it to 20z and the storm still hasn't closed off, that's when the 12z run did it, so that's a positive right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 And there it is, so delayed one hour, but it's better than going in the other direction. Not in an ideal position, but East of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 You can see here how the dry slot is further Southeast, more over LI rather than creeping up into NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That lp to the east looks like it wants to become the primary lp on this run Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hopefully this trends to the storm getting pulled east sooner, rather than drifting NE. That’s what really matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Looks worse for NYC to my eyes Not much of a change in the SLP, however you guys are focusing on the wrong thing. That dry slot stays further offshore. You're going to get intense lift in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Great signal as well for backside banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 unsure how anyone can argue that the 18Z isn't farther west and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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