strgazr27 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Metasequoia said: Thankfully running out of time for continued western shifts... What’s your reasoning for that? Still plenty of time for it to shift west. Just looking for solid reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The 18z NAM should be East of 12z based on H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: NWS Mount Holly Map: Actuallly an excellent call. I think that interior south jersey might to a tad better but this is pretty spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, snow1 said: That's actually a bit more for us than in their discussion, actually it 4-6 for MYBY. Which would be a decent March event for around here. Well let me say this, it wold be 6-8 up the block according to that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Huge bust potential near the fall line. Bit surprised by those further west tracks, the -AO/NAO should place this further east than suggested. It's not like last year. Maybe the negative PNA has something to do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 There is a possibility that it could start snowing before sunrise, and then almost stop or taper off before the main action begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z NAM should be East of 12z based on H5. looks like the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, friedmators said: looks like the opposite I disagree, the trough is going negative tilt slower, and because of that the H5 low should be slightly delayed in closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Hey, that doesn't look that far off from my map, albeit they do have higher totals further South in PA than I do. Looks like a very typical late winter storm for these parts. It could over perform or underperform, but I have people around me in schools and hospitals in a panic that we are seeing a 12-14 inch blizzard. This is what happens. Now talking to some old timers this morning in the mall, not a one believed we would see more than a few inches. Of course, they don't have to work in it anyway..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 So far 994mb off the DE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 We want this storm to close off just off the coast so that it pulls the SLP Northward and then Eastward as it begins to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 989mb off the NJ coast, going to be another tremendous hit for the interior at a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 What does "close off" exactly mean in meteorology terms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 We made it to 20z and the storm still hasn't closed off, that's when the 12z run did it, so that's a positive right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 And there it is, so delayed one hour, but it's better than going in the other direction. Not in an ideal position, but East of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 You can see here how the dry slot is further Southeast, more over LI rather than creeping up into NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That lp to the east looks like it wants to become the primary lp on this run Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hopefully this trends to the storm getting pulled east sooner, rather than drifting NE. That’s what really matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Looks worse for NYC to my eyes Not much of a change in the SLP, however you guys are focusing on the wrong thing. That dry slot stays further offshore. You're going to get intense lift in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Great signal as well for backside banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 unsure how anyone can argue that the 18Z isn't farther west and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 18z - As you can see here, precp increased across the board. vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I’m starting to like a feb 14 scenerio for the island. That is increasing amounts as you head north. I think the extreme south shore is a screw zone with only a few inches. With the extreme north shore of Nassau doing very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 NAM is WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: unsure how anyone can argue that the 18Z isn't farther west and warmer. Because the SLP track isn't the one people should be focusing on. The stronger dynamics are closer to the coast and the dry slot stays further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Less snow for most That’s 06 to 12z...not 12 to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Because the SLP track isn't the one people should be focusing on. The stronger dynamics are closer to the coast and the dry slot stays further SE. West is warmer for I-95, the low is on top of Jersey. It matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Less snow for most Wrong runs, but yes, warm and it's getting ugly for the City quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Oh really? What's this then? two maps from the 18Z run? Otherwise I give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Wrong runs, but yes, warm and it's getting ugly for the City quickly. I deleted it, it's snowier than 12z esp for the city west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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