March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

[mikem81]

The Euro is still a good 50 miles west of 0Z run. The west trend needs to stop.

[NJwx85]

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

[ag3]

Euro Kuchera is much improved over the 5 boroughs. 0z run was 4"-6". 12z run is 6"-12"

[MJO812]

Just now, ag3 said:

Euro Kuchera is much improved over the 5 boroughs. 0z run was 4"-6". 12z run is 6"-12"

4-8 seems likely for NYC

[DiehardFF]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

You do not think SE PA will see over a foot?

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Storm is tonight lol

Nonsense.  The key part of the storm is in about 30 hours from today's 7 am EST initialization for the 12Z models, so much can still change, especially in the +/-25-50 mile range on track.  Anyone who thinks all snow for 95/NYC is a lock is insane.  It's favored, but not a lock.  

[Stormman96]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

Euro says im Getting about 14 inches. If your right im only getting about 2 ok

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said:

The most annoying thing about living right on the shore is that 75% of the time a nor'easter approaches, it usually is sloppy precipitation. But, when it does snow, it is a lot. Just like in January. Same goes for the summer with strong cold fronts. There are these awesome thunderstorms to the west, and as soon as they get within 50 miles of the coast, the sea breeze washes them out. For me, if I want it to snow, I get flurries, if I don't want it to snow, I'll get a blizzard. No matter what happens tonight/tomorrow, it'll be a messy day.

The issues can be similar in the bayshore area too; a lot of times I want the t-storms to help with the garden ( by the way lettuce and peas are going in the dirt this weekend if the snow melts ) and they just seem to fizzle before they get here. B

 

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

Your thinking hasn't changed much IIRC from your last map....except that's a lot of 1-3 and 2-4 nuisance stuff....how do you guys come up with these maps anyway? Like, what would make you think New Brunswick would be all that different from say Rahway to the east? 

[TriPol]

I don't see CPK getting under a foot here if you toss the GFS.

[nesussxwx]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

Not to nitpick or anything, but you are severely underdoing the SEPA reigon. They look primed for 8"+.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Nonsense.  The key part of the storm is in about 30 hours from today's 7 am EST initialization for the 12Z models, so much can still change, especially in the +/-25-50 mile range on track.  Anyone who thinks all snow for 95/NYC is a lock is insane.  It's favored, but not a lock.  

It's not always a lock even in the dead of winter, let alone March. Yanks ( I think ) has us at 2-4, which is not really that bad and we could deal with it figuring it wouldn't really impact things that much ( it would, but not the way 6-12 would, for sure )

[North and West]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's all snow NW of the black line.

Question: Why would the black line be there, so far away from the coast?

[NYCGreg]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The issues can be similar in the bayshore area too; a lot of times I want the t-storms to help with the garden ( by the way lettuce and peas are going in the dirt this weekend if the snow melts ) and they just seem to fizzle before they get here. B

 

Your thinking hasn't changed much IIRC from your last map....except that's a lot of 1-3 and 2-4 nuisance stuff....how do you guys come up with these maps anyway? Like, what would make you think New Brunswick would be all that different from say Rahway to the east? 

It's just one opinion.  May be right, may be wrong.  We'll have to see how it plays out.  That's half the fun of tracking it all!

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

It's just one opinion.  May be right, may be wrong.  We'll have to see how it plays out.  That's half the fun of tracking it all!

Yeah, buthis opinions are usually pretty good, so I'm curious as to how he and others come up with these things. If it's just a guess, that's ok with me too.

[sferic]

Will precipitation commence in and around NYC before Midnight?

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

this place cracks me up...

Good! If we wanted to just read dry commentary we could stick with the NWS. What fun would that be? And we'd be getting expert opinion for free and it would be quicker. Let's face it we all just don't come here for the analysis. Heck, I don't even understand most of it. But there are a lot of smart people here that can explain it. 

[Metasequoia]

23 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The Euro is still a good 50 miles west of 0Z run. The west trend needs to stop.

Thankfully running out of time for continued western shifts...

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Will precipitation commence in and around NYC before Midnight?

Perhaps but should be light and spotty through at least 7am

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

Who in Philly hurt you lol?

[Buddy1987]

What do you guys think the start time on this thing is for eastern PA/northern NJ? I will be traveling from western VA to CT and am wondering if I should just drive straight through or be able to stop around 10pm and then get an early start?

[Big Jims Videos]

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's amazing that the tidal flooding is still occurring. That speaks volumes about the storm and ongoing gradual but steady rise in sea levels.

Crews are working dredging out Little silver Lake which is tidal influenced so that is compounding the issue as well.  

[NYCGreg]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah, buthis opinions are usually pretty good, so I'm curious as to how he and others come up with these things. If it's just a guess, that's ok with me too.

Cool.  I wish I had a guess.  My only thing is what I know is from experience.  On the coast and in NYC, if you can smell the rain, it's usually going to rain.  I know that is not scientific, and maybe that has changed recently, but I don't trust storms where I can see the rain/snow line approaching.  It rarely stops its advance.  Just my opinion.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Perhaps but should be light and spotty through at least 7am

Bad timing

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Cool.  I wish I had a guess.  My only thing is what I know is from experience.  On the coast and in NYC, if you can smell the rain, it's usually going to rain.  I know that is not scientific, and maybe that has changed recently, but I don't trust storms where I can see the rain/snow line approaching.  It rarely stops its advance.  Just my opinion.

Agreed, and it sometimes shocks people to the north when it makes it all the way there; rain can often overperform....

[David-LI]

HRRR looking good and colder than GFS and NAM

[Paragon]

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 1989 storm was an incredible bust. Looking further back, the January 19-20, 1978 storm was a huge positive bust (forecast was heavy rain, but the outcome was heavy snow across much of the region, ending in some drizzle).

We had two big busts in 1989- in February and December.

[NJwx85]

To answer some questions about my snow map, yes I understand that Southeast PA could receive more snow than I have depicted, the same can be said about Long Island. However I tried to take a blend of the guidance, which includes the possibility of the centers passing over SNJ and then Long Island. That's why I have less snow there. It's not a matter of temps as much as it is dry slot. If things change on later runs, I might have to shift things Southward a bit later.

[jm1220]

My first guess/call:

Central Park 7"

JFK: 4.5"

LGA: 6.5"

Bronx: 8"

EWR: 7"

HPN: 10.5"

BDR: 8"

MMU: 12.5"

Newburgh: 13"

Middletown: 13.5"

Danbury: 12"

ISP: 4"

Montauk: 0.5"

Huntington: 6"

FRG: 4.5"

Long Beach: 4"

 

The non-US models staying colder gives me some confidence the coastal areas will see at least a period of accumulating snow good for a few inches outside eastern Suffolk. I think it does eventually change over and dryslot for most, maybe not NW parts of the city. NW of I-95 is where you want to be, once into Westchester and western Bergen/Passaic Counties, amounts should increase pretty drastically and average a foot there. Depending on banding, someone should see 15". Overall, distribution should be pretty 3/14/17-like, though most of Long Island at least gets advisory level snow. 

I would shift the Euro west another 25 miles or so, which should be enough to get it to where my call is. I don't buy for a second the crazy hi-res CMC runs that have 12+ for Long Island, but maybe it's onto something with a colder idea due to the low moving ENE off S NJ. We'll see what happens. 

[friedmators]

12 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Agreed, and it sometimes shocks people to the north when it makes it all the way there; rain can often overperform....

in SWFE this is always the case.  Precip always starts earlier than modeled and 850s warm earlier.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

My first guess/call:

Central Park 7"

JFK: 4.5"

LGA: 6.5"

Bronx: 8"

EWR: 7"

HPN: 10.5"

BDR: 8"

MMU: 12.5"

Newburgh: 13"

Middletown: 13.5"

Danbury: 12"

ISP: 4"

Montauk: 0.5"

Huntington: 6"

FRG: 4.5"

Long Beach: 4"

 

The non-US models staying colder gives me some confidence the coastal areas will see at least a period of accumulating snow good for a few inches outside eastern Suffolk. I think it does eventually change over and dryslot for most, maybe not NW parts of the city. NW of I-95 is where you want to be, once into Westchester and western Bergen/Passaic Counties, amounts should increase pretty drastically and average a foot there. Depending on banding, someone should see 15". Overall, distribution should be pretty 3/14/17-like, though most of Long Island at least gets advisory level snow. 

I would shift the Euro west another 25 miles or so, which should be enough to get it to where my call is. I don't buy for a second the crazy hi-res CMC runs that have 12+ for Long Island, but maybe it's onto something with a colder idea due to the low moving ENE off S NJ. We'll see what happens. 

I think that is very reasonable and probably about what we'd expect given the time of year. And there are probably a lot of storms on record that look just like it. Assuming EWR and CPK see some sort of mixing, no?