March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Is this mostly snow for CNJ around the trenton area? The other models have the area kissing the rain/snow line and it’s hard to tell from the EURO panels. 

Yeah on the Euro a lot of that in CNJ would be snow, but I have to caution you that it's East of the model consensus. 

[mikem81]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's all snow NW of the black line.

Would like to know where the 925 line as opposed to 850's

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Yeah on the Euro a lot of that in CNJ would be snow, but I have to caution you that it's East of the model consensus. 

Thank you. However it’s in agreement with the CMC, HRDPS, and Ukie. So this solution has a few models in its camp. This is a really hard forecast for I-95. It could honestly go either way. 

[friedmators]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The only real negative aspect that I see with the Euro, and a trend that has occured with some of the other guidance today, is that the SLP doesn't deepen all that much. Looks like 991mb is about as low as it gets, where yesterday a lot of guidance had it sub 990mb. I mean it's not a huge difference and it's actually going to mean less wind, which is good, and higher ratios.

i see 987 on wxbell map @ 36

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

That euro run just made the forecast even harder for the south shore. A major snow event is still on the table. I will wait until this evenings mesos to make my final call. Anywhere Nw of Central Park looks golden for 8”+

[tempestatis014]

The most annoying thing about living right on the shore is that 75% of the time a nor'easter approaches, it usually is sloppy precipitation. But, when it does snow, it is a lot. Just like in January. Same goes for the summer with strong cold fronts. There are these awesome thunderstorms to the west, and as soon as they get within 50 miles of the coast, the sea breeze washes them out. For me, if I want it to snow, I get flurries, if I don't want it to snow, I'll get a blizzard. No matter what happens tonight/tomorrow, it'll be a messy day.

[RU848789]

Great run, still, for 95, but the precip axis has moved NW about 25-30 miles and surface temps at the height of the storm are 1-2F warmer for 95 and the coast, so areas towards the NJ coast and on eastern LI do much worse for this run vs. 00Z and 95 is very close to rain.  I can see maps but can't post them, but it's clear from comparing the last two runs.  Any further move NW and the 95 corridor from Phiilly to NYC will be in trouble.  

[mikem81]

The Euro is still a good 50 miles west of 0Z run. The west trend needs to stop.

[NJwx85]

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

[ag3]

Euro Kuchera is much improved over the 5 boroughs. 0z run was 4"-6". 12z run is 6"-12"

[MJO812]

Just now, ag3 said:

Euro Kuchera is much improved over the 5 boroughs. 0z run was 4"-6". 12z run is 6"-12"

4-8 seems likely for NYC

[tempestatis014]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

I'd agree with that. If some better banding sets up, you might want to pull some of those amounts in NW NJ a little farther south to Middlesex/Western Monmouth

[DiehardFF]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

You do not think SE PA will see over a foot?

[RU848789]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Storm is tonight lol

Nonsense.  The key part of the storm is in about 30 hours from today's 7 am EST initialization for the 12Z models, so much can still change, especially in the +/-25-50 mile range on track.  Anyone who thinks all snow for 95/NYC is a lock is insane.  It's favored, but not a lock.  

[Stormman96]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

Euro says im Getting about 14 inches. If your right im only getting about 2 ok

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said:

The most annoying thing about living right on the shore is that 75% of the time a nor'easter approaches, it usually is sloppy precipitation. But, when it does snow, it is a lot. Just like in January. Same goes for the summer with strong cold fronts. There are these awesome thunderstorms to the west, and as soon as they get within 50 miles of the coast, the sea breeze washes them out. For me, if I want it to snow, I get flurries, if I don't want it to snow, I'll get a blizzard. No matter what happens tonight/tomorrow, it'll be a messy day.

The issues can be similar in the bayshore area too; a lot of times I want the t-storms to help with the garden ( by the way lettuce and peas are going in the dirt this weekend if the snow melts ) and they just seem to fizzle before they get here. B

 

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

Your thinking hasn't changed much IIRC from your last map....except that's a lot of 1-3 and 2-4 nuisance stuff....how do you guys come up with these maps anyway? Like, what would make you think New Brunswick would be all that different from say Rahway to the east? 

[TriPol]

I don't see CPK getting under a foot here if you toss the GFS.

[nesussxwx]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

Not to nitpick or anything, but you are severely underdoing the SEPA reigon. They look primed for 8"+.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Nonsense.  The key part of the storm is in about 30 hours from today's 7 am EST initialization for the 12Z models, so much can still change, especially in the +/-25-50 mile range on track.  Anyone who thinks all snow for 95/NYC is a lock is insane.  It's favored, but not a lock.  

It's not always a lock even in the dead of winter, let alone March. Yanks ( I think ) has us at 2-4, which is not really that bad and we could deal with it figuring it wouldn't really impact things that much ( it would, but not the way 6-12 would, for sure )

[North and West]

26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's all snow NW of the black line.

Question: Why would the black line be there, so far away from the coast?

[NYCGreg]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

The issues can be similar in the bayshore area too; a lot of times I want the t-storms to help with the garden ( by the way lettuce and peas are going in the dirt this weekend if the snow melts ) and they just seem to fizzle before they get here. B

 

Your thinking hasn't changed much IIRC from your last map....except that's a lot of 1-3 and 2-4 nuisance stuff....how do you guys come up with these maps anyway? Like, what would make you think New Brunswick would be all that different from say Rahway to the east? 

It's just one opinion.  May be right, may be wrong.  We'll have to see how it plays out.  That's half the fun of tracking it all!

[weatherpruf]

5 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

It's just one opinion.  May be right, may be wrong.  We'll have to see how it plays out.  That's half the fun of tracking it all!

Yeah, buthis opinions are usually pretty good, so I'm curious as to how he and others come up with these things. If it's just a guess, that's ok with me too.

[sferic]

Will precipitation commence in and around NYC before Midnight?

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

this place cracks me up...

Good! If we wanted to just read dry commentary we could stick with the NWS. What fun would that be? And we'd be getting expert opinion for free and it would be quicker. Let's face it we all just don't come here for the analysis. Heck, I don't even understand most of it. But there are a lot of smart people here that can explain it. 

[Metasequoia]

23 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

The Euro is still a good 50 miles west of 0Z run. The west trend needs to stop.

Thankfully running out of time for continued western shifts...

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

Will precipitation commence in and around NYC before Midnight?

Perhaps but should be light and spotty through at least 7am

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

My final call

Pink 1-3"

Light Blue 2-4"

Dark Blue 4-6", locally 8"

Green 6-10", locally 12"

Red 8-12", locally 18"

Who in Philly hurt you lol?

[Buddy1987]

What do you guys think the start time on this thing is for eastern PA/northern NJ? I will be traveling from western VA to CT and am wondering if I should just drive straight through or be able to stop around 10pm and then get an early start?

[Big Jims Videos]

49 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's amazing that the tidal flooding is still occurring. That speaks volumes about the storm and ongoing gradual but steady rise in sea levels.

Crews are working dredging out Little silver Lake which is tidal influenced so that is compounding the issue as well.  

[NYCGreg]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Yeah, buthis opinions are usually pretty good, so I'm curious as to how he and others come up with these things. If it's just a guess, that's ok with me too.

Cool.  I wish I had a guess.  My only thing is what I know is from experience.  On the coast and in NYC, if you can smell the rain, it's usually going to rain.  I know that is not scientific, and maybe that has changed recently, but I don't trust storms where I can see the rain/snow line approaching.  It rarely stops its advance.  Just my opinion.