NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The 12z UKMET is a hair drier than 00z. Basically 1.25”-1.50” LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 JMA looks like a mirror of yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 https://digital.weather.gov/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 EURO with a 999LP on the delmarva at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Meanwhile two blocks from my place in point pleasant beach flooding continues from the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said: Meanwhile two blocks from my place in point pleasant beach flooding continues from the last storm. It's amazing that the tidal flooding is still occurring. That speaks volumes about the storm and ongoing gradual but steady rise in sea levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: EURO with a 999LP on the delmarva at 24 So it’s NW of 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 hours ago, friedmators said: wheres @donsutherland1. I am sure he has stats for the biggest busts of all times going back to the Cretaceous. The 1989 storm was an incredible bust. Looking further back, the January 19-20, 1978 storm was a huge positive bust (forecast was heavy rain, but the outcome was heavy snow across much of the region, ending in some drizzle). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The Euro is a tremendous hit, that's why you don't after every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The only real negative aspect that I see with the Euro, and a trend that has occured with some of the other guidance today, is that the SLP doesn't deepen all that much. Looks like 991mb is about as low as it gets, where yesterday a lot of guidance had it sub 990mb. I mean it's not a huge difference and it's actually going to mean less wind, which is good, and higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro is a tremendous hit, that's why you don't after every model run. Now we have a true model war. The EURO hasn’t budged and is an ideal track for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro is a tremendous hit, that's why you don't after every model run. QPF translation to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, Neblizzard said: Now we have a true model war. The EURO hasn’t budged and is an ideal track for NYC. It's not just an ideal track for NYC, I hate when people post that as if it's the only location that matters here. The Euro is an ideal track for just about the entire sub-forum outside of the twin forks, and even they don't do half bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherlogix said: it was over 50 3 straight runs Cut goes negative at the perfect time Ccb snows itself out over nnj and nyc very similar to the hrdps couldn’t ask for a better run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Now if 18z NAM and GFS tick east we might have a true model consensus, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: QPF translation to snow? That's all snow NW of the black line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8-12 for NYC on the Euro Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It's not just an ideal track for NYC, I hate when people post that as if it's the only location that matters here. The Euro is an ideal track for just about the entire sub-forum outside of the twin forks, and even they don't do half bad. Sorry I should of named every location where it’s an ideal track , Jeez. My point was the entire NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Rather than looking at the weenie snow maps, look here. Almost everyone is at least 1.25"+ LE and mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: Now if 18z NAM and GFS tick east we might have a true model consensus, right? Gfs is probably lost like it usually is especially with so much consenus from the Euro ukie and canadians. If the nam goes east or at least loses the dryslot I'd say we're good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Sorry I should of named every location where it’s an ideal track , Jeez. My point was the entire NYC metro Just say the entire forum next time, that way nobody can confuse what you're trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Rather than looking at the weenie snow maps, look here. Almost everyone is at least 1.25"+ LE and mostly snow. Is this mostly snow for CNJ around the trenton area? The other models have the area kissing the rain/snow line and it’s hard to tell from the EURO panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Based on most guidance so far, I think most of us sees between 10-15 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 8-12 for NYC on the Euro Nice Yeah taken verbatim, and if you take a blend, then 6-8" is probably the best call there right now. I will put out my final call shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Is this mostly snow for CNJ around the trenton area? The other models have the area kissing the rain/snow line and it’s hard to tell from the EURO panels. Yeah on the Euro a lot of that in CNJ would be snow, but I have to caution you that it's East of the model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's all snow NW of the black line. Would like to know where the 925 line as opposed to 850's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Yeah on the Euro a lot of that in CNJ would be snow, but I have to caution you that it's East of the model consensus. Thank you. However it’s in agreement with the CMC, HRDPS, and Ukie. So this solution has a few models in its camp. This is a really hard forecast for I-95. It could honestly go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The only real negative aspect that I see with the Euro, and a trend that has occured with some of the other guidance today, is that the SLP doesn't deepen all that much. Looks like 991mb is about as low as it gets, where yesterday a lot of guidance had it sub 990mb. I mean it's not a huge difference and it's actually going to mean less wind, which is good, and higher ratios. i see 987 on wxbell map @ 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That euro run just made the forecast even harder for the south shore. A major snow event is still on the table. I will wait until this evenings mesos to make my final call. Anywhere Nw of Central Park looks golden for 8”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Great run, still, for 95, but the precip axis has moved NW about 25-30 miles and surface temps at the height of the storm are 1-2F warmer for 95 and the coast, so areas towards the NJ coast and on eastern LI do much worse for this run vs. 00Z and 95 is very close to rain. I can see maps but can't post them, but it's clear from comparing the last two runs. Any further move NW and the 95 corridor from Phiilly to NYC will be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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