tempestatis014 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 How much wind are we talking with this thing? I know it'll be less than Friday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hi-Res Nam, RGEM, GGEM, EURO, most short range vs. NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: How much wind are we talking with this thing? I know it'll be less than Friday's. it's conceivable parts of the immediate jersey shore see some gusts to 50mph mid-morning to early afternoon, same on long island a bit later. 45-55KT modeled at 925mb on most guidance, and should be some efficient mixing with convection, rapid deepening of low to mid-level cyclones and potential gravity waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Examples of posts you should not be making in this thread: -GFS SUCKS!!! It's an embarrassment -Why are you downplaying the storm based on one lousy run wait for the Euro!! -Gonna be a big time bust for the city and coast, all rain (with no analysis to back it up) -DT is saying 12"+!! -The coast has been getting slammed too many times, interior deserves it (or vice versa) -Weren't you the guy saying last night it's gonna be a major hit? -3" isn't a big deal, 12" is a big deal -How much for my location (when you can see from prior posts/maps what's being shown, other threads such as Vendor and what others are calling for) Etc, etc etc Posts like these should be in Banter, or better yet just don't make them. Or send it via PM. This thread is for thoughtful, analytical posts only. Posts like the ones above will be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: it's conceivable parts of the immediate jersey shore see some gusts to 50mph mid-morning to early afternoon, same on long island a bit later. 45-55KT modeled at 925mb on most guidance, and should be some efficient mixing with convection, rapid deepening of low to mid-level cyclones and potential gravity waves. Thanks. It isn't fun when you have to sail in that for school... but I bet it will get cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 UKMET track looks similiar to 0Z. Low passed just SE of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 UKMET track looks similiar to 0Z. Low passed just SE of Long Island.I would expect the Euro to hold serve then, assuming the correlation holds true.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 That spot of higher snowfall amounts keeps showing up over Nassau county in some models. Hope it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Examples of posts you should not be making in this thread: -GFS SUCKS!!! It's an embarrassment -Why are you downplaying the storm based on one lousy run wait for the Euro!! -Gonna be a big time bust for the city and coast, all rain (with no analysis to back it up) -DT is saying 12"+!! -The coast has been getting slammed too many times, interior deserves it (or vice versa) -Weren't you the guy saying last night it's gonna be a major hit? -3" isn't a big deal, 12" is a big deal -How much for my location (when you can see from prior posts/maps what's being shown, other threads such as Vendor and what others are calling for) Etc, etc etc Posts like these should be in Banter, or better yet just don't make them. Or send it via PM. This thread is for thoughtful, analytical posts only. Posts like the ones above will be deleted. The point needs to be made on how incredibly bad GFS has been, so people don't freak out over what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: 0Z for comparison. Almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 43 minutes ago, Animal said: Nice snows nw nj As usual, at this point I think we're in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, David-LI said: That spot of higher snowfall amounts keeps showing up over Nassau county in some models. Hope it verifies. I'm wary of trusting the Hi-Res Canadian after how snowy it had this area the last storm, but it gives me some confidence the GFS/NAM are overamped. If the Euro still holds serve soon, I'll have more confidence. We can still salvage a decent snow event near the coast with a track not too east of the GFS/NAM now given how tightly wound the storm should be. The 12"+ stuff I just don't buy for this area though. By decent event, I mean maybe reaching warning criteria. NYC has a better chance at 6-8" or so. I'll give a guess once the Euro comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: 0Z for comparison. Almost identical OK so the major take away from this should be that the NAM and GFS corrected too far to the WEST and I would expect a further offshore track by both of them either with 18z or tonights 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I use the E-Wall for tracking the storm. For whatever reason, for the GFS the isobars are off the NJ coast, but the surface wind depiction has the low inside Ocean County NJ at hr 36. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html Using the surface wind depiction, it then essentially tracks over my head, and then into SE Mass. It's the most amped by far of the models I see. Thanks, although to be clear, even if TT is not absolutely "correct" in its depiction of the surface low, one would think that it's at least internally consistent and TT shows the SLP making a significant jog NW along the NJ coast at 6Z and 12Z vs. 00Z last night and that jog made a major shift in the rain/snow line to the NW. It may be wrong, but it at least appears to be internally consistent at TT. I'm not a met, so it's still possible I'm missing something here (and yes, I've read enough to know the GFS thermal profiles are not to be trusted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 HRRR looks good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, RU848789 said: Thanks, although to be clear, even if TT is not absolutely "correct" in its depiction of the surface low, one would think that it's at least internally consistent and TT shows the SLP making a significant jog NW along the NJ coast at 6Z and 12Z vs. 00Z last night and that jog made a major shift in the rain/snow line to the NW. It may be wrong, but it at least appears to be internally consistent at TT. I'm not a met, so it's still possible I'm missing something here (and yes, I've read enough to know the GFS thermal profiles are not to be trusted). The mid level low tracks to me on this GFS run are concerning for NYC because 700/850 appear to track essentially overhead. That would be enough to dryslot and bring warm mid level (and surface) air in. If it's 40-50 miles southeast of that, it would be much better and match up with the colder models. The UKMET not biting on a more amped track is a bit encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Trend gif - was pretty consistent with track up until the last 2-3 runs - 0z will be interesting tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Ukmet did make a slight move towards the Americans initially with the low now hitting Jersey Shore. Comparison below. I am worried about the trends and when do they stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Ukie crushes the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Ukmet did make a slight move towards the Americans initially with the low now hitting Jersey Shore. Comparison below. I am worried about the trends and when do they stop. Storm is tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: it's conceivable parts of the immediate jersey shore see some gusts to 50mph mid-morning to early afternoon, same on long island a bit later. 45-55KT modeled at 925mb on most guidance, and should be some efficient mixing with convection, rapid deepening of low to mid-level cyclones and potential gravity waves. How far inland is that expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Ukmet did make a slight move towards the Americans initially with the low now hitting Jersey Shore. Comparison below. I am worried about the trends and when do they stop.Again.. Touching the coast is not the issue here, imo. It's where exactly it does and whether it shunts exactly east or continues to move NNE. With the blocking of the NAO... Im not so stuck on the idea of it coming so close to LI Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The surface low is very likely to make it to around ACY. The make or break for the city and even many coastal areas is what happens after-does it keep heading north like the GFS and NAM, or slide ENE like the Canadian, UKMET? When do the closing off upper air lows start to vertically stack and allow a more eastward jog? If that happens SE of NYC and Long Island, we're in pretty good shape. If it happens overhead, it's a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Storm is tonight Ant I work in a school district and they are expecting this to start around noon tomorrow, and possibly an early dismissal. Seems to me they may be under the wrong impression, unless it is supposed to start as rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: UKMET looks good for NYC metro... If Euro holds then well have a nice battle between the Europeans/Canadians vs. the US Incorrect run, look on the bottom-initialized Mon Mar 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The NAM did still manage to show plenty of snow for NYC though, unlike the GFS. It's really only the GFS that says you have to go inland to see good accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Incorrect run, look on the bottom-initialized Mon Mar 5th. Tried to upload the current. Trust me it looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Seems like most of the time that storms pull over ACY the R/S line at least makes as far north as the South Shore of Long Island regardless of the track after.Majority of the time, yes (barring a cold January storm with an anchored source of low level cold to spill in). However, this is why the solutions showing the Chesapeake and OC MD I would prefer (assuming it moves in a manner conducive for snow on LI following this) Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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