NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z GFS track, as you can see, it's a good track. Ignore the thermals, especially if you live West of the Nassau/Suffolk county line and away from the South facing shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly, thank you. The gfs is a major hit from manhattan north and west. The island and central jersey are the question marks. Let’s see what the euro does The GFS verbatim is a rainstorm from Philly to NYC to Boston. Not sure how you can say it's a major hit for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: No big deal with tomorrow’s storm....Next Monday’s storm will be the real talker. epic superstorm potential. Aren't the models split on that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z GFS track, as you can see, it's a good track. Ignore the thermals, especially if you live West of the Nassau/Suffolk county line and away from the South facing shore. How did you determine that? TT shows the low pretty much right off the coast of Monmouth at hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 oiy - don't look at the HRDPS - might be the snowiest model for the city on east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z GFS track, as you can see, it's a good track. Ignore the thermals, especially if you live West of the Nassau/Suffolk county line and away from the South facing shore.That's actually a very good track for LI. Again, if this touches right on OC MD occludes here and shunts ENE, the majority of the survey forum is in for a hard thump. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 HRDPS is a mega hit for CNJ on north. I’m puzzled, the range of solutions for CNJ are crazy at the moment 1-14”. I’m looking for the EURO to settle this, if it caves to the NAM/GFS I think we have our answer for that area. NW Nj, the pocconos, and the NY state suburbs are all a lock for 10”+ at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Agreed. And the GFS, while maybe having lousy thermal algorithms, has been right before on track vs. other models (Jan 15 stands out), so with this and the NAM also making a significant jog NW, a rainfest for 95 is now on the table. Kind of easy to dismiss one model, but not 2 of 3 (if we count the RDPS as a snowy model). Even the worst model will get it right every once in awhile, but everyone agrees that GFS is by FAR the worst model. So I wouldn't be too concerned unless other models start showing this warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 All is not lost... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 People really need to stop freaking out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Also interesting is the HRDPS is wayyy colder for central areas as compared to 6z. Let’s see if this is the start of a promising correction tick east. Euro will be all telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: People really need to stop freaking out Funny you have to say that after each model run, but it is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The HRDPS hasn’t had the best winter. Prior to this year it was probably the best model aside from the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: How did you determine that? TT shows the low pretty much right off the coast of Monmouth at hr 36 Noticed the same thing - maybe we're missing something, as that track would be great vs. what TT shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 RGEM and HDERP are both in very similar agreement actually with both precip and track. They take similar routes as the 3k NAM but go east a little quicker and stay a little farther south, which makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The HRDPS hasn’t had the best winter. Prior to this year it was probably the best model aside from the Euro I would still give it more weight for BL temps and intensity than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I would still give it more weight for BL temps and intensity than the GFS. OK so we have the RGEM and HRDPS showing a major hit of 12+ for the area, NAM a little less but wasn't it the 3km that showed 6-12? please correct me there.... THEN the GFS.... not going to even comment.... just look at it don't take it to heart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Pretty amazing influence the precursor ULL is having over the continent's weather pattern already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Noticed the same thing - maybe we're missing something, as that track would be great vs. what TT shows. I use the E-Wall for tracking the storm. For whatever reason, for the GFS the isobars are off the NJ coast, but the surface wind depiction has the low inside Ocean County NJ at hr 36. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html Using the surface wind depiction, it then essentially tracks over my head, and then into SE Mass. It's the most amped by far of the models I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Noticed the same thing - maybe we're missing something, as that track would be great vs. what TT shows. It's a little easier to see here. The red line is the ULL track and the black line is the SLP track. As you can see here, it's the ULL which is causing the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The UKMET is east for sure of the NAM and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HRDPS hasn’t had the best winter. Prior to this year it was probably the best model aside from the Euro HRDPS had me getting 6 inches the last storm. Received 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I use the E-Wall for tracking the storm. For whatever reason, for the GFS the isobars are off the NJ coast, but the surface wind depiction has the low inside Ocean County NJ at hr 36. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html Using the surface wind depiction, it then essentially tracks over my head, and then into SE Mass. It's the most amped by far of the models I see. I believe that's either a dual surface low or an ULL which is how I labeled it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: HRDPS had me getting 6 inches the last storm. Received 0. This storm and the last one are two much different setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I use the E-Wall for tracking the storm. For whatever reason, for the GFS the isobars are off the NJ coast, but the surface wind depiction has the low inside Ocean County NJ at hr 36. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html Using the surface wind depiction, it then essentially tracks over my head, and then into SE Mass. It's the most amped by far of the models I see. Same here... 12z GFS & 12z NAM at Hr 33 You can clearly see the surface on the GFS is what is cooking the coast while the mid levels on the NAM are causing the problem E of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Hi-Res Nam, RGEM, GGEM, EURO, most short range vs. NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: How much wind are we talking with this thing? I know it'll be less than Friday's. it's conceivable parts of the immediate jersey shore see some gusts to 50mph mid-morning to early afternoon, same on long island a bit later. 45-55KT modeled at 925mb on most guidance, and should be some efficient mixing with convection, rapid deepening of low to mid-level cyclones and potential gravity waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Examples of posts you should not be making in this thread: -GFS SUCKS!!! It's an embarrassment -Why are you downplaying the storm based on one lousy run wait for the Euro!! -Gonna be a big time bust for the city and coast, all rain (with no analysis to back it up) -DT is saying 12"+!! -The coast has been getting slammed too many times, interior deserves it (or vice versa) -Weren't you the guy saying last night it's gonna be a major hit? -3" isn't a big deal, 12" is a big deal -How much for my location (when you can see from prior posts/maps what's being shown, other threads such as Vendor and what others are calling for) Etc, etc etc Posts like these should be in Banter, or better yet just don't make them. Or send it via PM. This thread is for thoughtful, analytical posts only. Posts like the ones above will be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 UKMET track looks similiar to 0Z. Low passed just SE of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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