March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, thank you. The gfs is a major hit from manhattan north and west. The island and central jersey are the question marks. Let’s see what the euro does 

Then we get into what is CNJ exactly? I say I'm in CNJ parallel to SI, others tell me I'm in NNJ yet no one around here considers themselves north....

[weatherpruf]

Just now, RU848789 said:

Agreed. And the GFS, while maybe having lousy thermal algorithms, has been right before on track vs. other models (Jan 15 stands out), so with this and the NAM also making a significant jog NW, a rainfest for 95 is now on the table.  Kind of easy to dismiss one model, but not 2 of 3 (if we count the HRDPS as a snowy model).  

I tend to respect your posts; I know your background and think if you are less than enthusiastic for our area ( I have to add that as the NW posters will get mad if I don't ) then I would tend to think we are in trouble.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Then we get into what is CNJ exactly? I say I'm in CNJ parallel to SI, others tell me I'm in NNJ yet no one around here considers themselves north....

I would say your right on the line from Big totals. I would wait until this evenings meso models to make a final call

[NJwx85]

12z GGEM track

[NJwx85]

12z GFS track, as you can see, it's a good track. Ignore the thermals, especially if you live West of the Nassau/Suffolk county line and away from the South facing shore.

[RU848789]

11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, thank you. The gfs is a major hit from manhattan north and west. The island and central jersey are the question marks. Let’s see what the euro does 

The GFS verbatim is a rainstorm from Philly to NYC to Boston.  Not sure how you can say it's a major hit for NYC.  

 

[White Gorilla]

5 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

No big deal with tomorrow’s storm....Next Monday’s storm will be the real talker.

epic superstorm potential.

Aren't the models split on that one? 

[Sn0waddict]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

12z GFS track, as you can see, it's a good track. Ignore the thermals, especially if you live West of the Nassau/Suffolk county line and away from the South facing shore.

How did you determine that? TT shows the low pretty much right off the coast of Monmouth at hr 36

[weatherlogix]

oiy - don't look at the HRDPS - might be the snowiest model for the city on east

[USCG RS]

12z GFS track, as you can see, it's a good track. Ignore the thermals, especially if you live West of the Nassau/Suffolk county line and away from the South facing shore.

That's actually a very good track for LI. Again, if this touches right on OC MD occludes here and shunts ENE, the majority of the survey forum is in for a hard thump.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

HRDPS is a mega hit for CNJ on north. I’m puzzled, the range of solutions for CNJ are crazy at the moment 1-14”. I’m looking for the EURO to settle this, if it caves to the NAM/GFS I think we have our answer for that area. NW Nj, the pocconos, and the NY state suburbs are all a lock for 10”+ at this point. 

[winterwx21]

10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Agreed. And the GFS, while maybe having lousy thermal algorithms, has been right before on track vs. other models (Jan 15 stands out), so with this and the NAM also making a significant jog NW, a rainfest for 95 is now on the table.  Kind of easy to dismiss one model, but not 2 of 3 (if we count the RDPS as a snowy model).  

Even the worst model will get it right every once in awhile, but everyone agrees that GFS is by FAR the worst model. So I wouldn't be too concerned unless other models start showing this warmer solution.

[NJwx85]

[RU848789]

All is not lost...

[NJwx85]

People really need to stop freaking out

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Also interesting is the HRDPS is wayyy colder for central areas as compared to 6z. Let’s see if this is the start of a promising correction tick east. Euro will be all telling. 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

People really need to stop freaking out

Funny you have to say that after each model run, but it is true

[SnowGoose69]

The HRDPS hasn’t had the best winter.  Prior to this year it was probably the best model aside from the Euro 

[RU848789]

4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

How did you determine that? TT shows the low pretty much right off the coast of Monmouth at hr 36

Noticed the same thing - maybe we're missing something, as that track would be great vs. what TT shows.  

[Sn0waddict]

RGEM and HDERP are both in very similar agreement actually with both precip and track. They take similar routes as the 3k NAM but go east a little quicker and stay a little farther south, which makes a huge difference. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRDPS hasn’t had the best winter.  Prior to this year it was probably the best model aside from the Euro 

I would still give it more weight for BL temps and intensity than the GFS.

[allgame830]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

I would still give it more weight for BL temps and intensity than the GFS.

OK so we have the RGEM and HRDPS showing a major hit of 12+ for the area, NAM a little less but wasn't it the 3km that showed 6-12? please correct me there....

THEN the GFS.... not going to even comment.... just look at it don't take it to heart!

[Juliancolton]

Pretty amazing influence the precursor ULL is having over the continent's weather pattern already.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Noticed the same thing - maybe we're missing something, as that track would be great vs. what TT shows.  

I use the E-Wall for tracking the storm. For whatever reason, for the GFS the isobars are off the NJ coast, but the surface wind depiction has the low inside Ocean County NJ at hr 36. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html

Using the surface wind depiction, it then essentially tracks over my head, and then into SE Mass. It's the most amped by far of the models I see. 

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Noticed the same thing - maybe we're missing something, as that track would be great vs. what TT shows.  

 

It's a little easier to see here. The red line is the ULL track and the black line is the SLP track. 

As you can see here, it's the ULL which is causing the problem.

[SnowGoose69]

The UKMET is east for sure of the NAM and GFS

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRDPS hasn’t had the best winter.  Prior to this year it was probably the best model aside from the Euro 

HRDPS had me getting 6 inches the last storm. Received 0.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I use the E-Wall for tracking the storm. For whatever reason, for the GFS the isobars are off the NJ coast, but the surface wind depiction has the low inside Ocean County NJ at hr 36. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html

Using the surface wind depiction, it then essentially tracks over my head, and then into SE Mass. It's the most amped by far of the models I see. 

I believe that's either a dual surface low or an ULL which is how I labeled it. 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

HRDPS had me getting 6 inches the last storm. Received 0.

This storm and the last one are two much different setups.

[snywx]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I use the E-Wall for tracking the storm. For whatever reason, for the GFS the isobars are off the NJ coast, but the surface wind depiction has the low inside Ocean County NJ at hr 36. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html

Using the surface wind depiction, it then essentially tracks over my head, and then into SE Mass. It's the most amped by far of the models I see. 

Same here...

12z GFS & 12z NAM at Hr 33

You can clearly see the surface on the GFS is what is cooking the coast while the mid levels on the NAM are causing the problem E of the city