March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm thread (not obs)

[weatherlogix]

boy the GFS just produced a dud....nothing at all

[friedmators]

GFS is an ugly mess for a lot of us

[USCG RS]

That could actually be positive for the tri state. As was mentioned by a couple persons yesterday... An earlier touch with land would mean a quicker phase thus quicker occlusion. This in turn keeps the area colder and the end shunt farther to our south.

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On that note.. Gfs takes SLP over LI. So yeah.

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[weatherpruf]

Just now, USCG RS said:

On that note.. Gfs takes SLP over LI. So yeah.

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So is it good or bad? And for who? There's so much flyng around here I get confused...you're one of the ones I take seriously

[Blizz]

GFS map... I find it hard to believe Euro is going to be THIS far off from its 00z run.. Really hard to take this seriously.

[NJwx85]

The 12z GFS is fine, over 1" LE for everyone West of the Hudson River.

That dry slot is going to be an issue for Eastern sections. It's just the way it is this time around.

Maybe this is an overcorrection West and things will slide East later. Keep in mind that we haven't seen the 12z Euro yet so try and keep the  to a minimum. 

[Snowlover11]

CMC is colder than the gfs, also futher south.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS is fine, over 1" LE for everyone West of the Hudson River.

That dry slot is going to be an issue for Eastern sections. It's just the way it is this time around.

Maybe this is an overcorrection West and things will slide East later. Keep in mind that we haven't seen the 12z Euro yet so try and keep the  to a minimum. 

What does LE stand for?

[nzucker]

2 minutes ago, Blizz said:

GFS map... I find it hard to believe Euro is going to be THIS far off from its 00z run.. Really hard to take this seriously.

This map is overdone with the warmth. This storm has a lot of cold air on its western flank...850s are still like -5C in NYC with a storm tracking from the Delmarva to Montauk.

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS is fine, over 1" LE for everyone West of the Hudson River.

That dry slot is going to be an issue for Eastern sections. It's just the way it is this time around.

Maybe this is an overcorrection West and things will slide East later. Keep in mind that we haven't seen the 12z Euro yet so try and keep the  to a minimum. 

Agreed and people are relying on this damn stupid snowfall maps which we have known are horrid!! I really don't think that NYC will dryslot.  Possibly central LI.  Still liking 5-10 inches for NYC lower amounts in the southern boroughs then ramping up to over a foot NW of the city.

[USCG RS]

What does LE stand for?

Liquid equivalent

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[Blizzard-on-GFS]

Nail that coffin shut for CNJ on south, OUCH. Been 2+ years for a 10”+ storm for me, this one isn’t going to deliver. Far NW should cash in though. 

[tempestatis014]

Just imagine though if this was in January/February. Then, it'd be crazy amounts for almost everyone

[Metasequoia]

12Z RGEM. That would work for most. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

What do you think of that map Blizz posted though. 

People take those clown maps way too seriously. We saw with the last storm that they are highly inaccurate. I also wouldn't use the GFS thermals, ever. If I had a choice between nothing and the GFS I would give nothing more weight.

[NJwx85]

Just now, tempestatis014 said:

Just imagine though if this was in January/February. Then, it'd be crazy amounts for almost everyone

No it wouldn't. This isn't a cold air issue, it's a track issue.

[nzucker]

Just now, tempestatis014 said:

Just imagine though if this was in January/February. Then, it'd be crazy amounts for almost everyone

Not if the H7 and H85 lows track overhead, it wouldn't. The track of the mid-level features is usually more important for snowstorms than the time of year.

[allgame830]

Just now, Metasequoia said:

12Z RGEM. That would work for most. 

Even if you cut that back to 8:1 it is still a 8-12 inch snowstorm of the metro area.... come on guy relax!!

[MJO812]

CMC is a big snowstorm for the area

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Even if you cut that back to 8:1 it is still a 8-12 inch snowstorm of the metro area.... come on guy relax!!

There are too many models and from where I sit the one referenced is out on its own now, isn't it? And is it even any good? For that matter, how good are any of them?

[RDRY]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

CMC is a big snowstorm for the area

Canadiens vs. Americans.

[CIK62]

Look at it this way:

If all you knew was the probability of precipitation is 100% on some wintertime day in NYC-----is there any day that a pure snow event would evolve from whatever setup was producing that precip., that would have at least a 50% chance of being all snow?

Not even sure Feb. 01 cuts it and we are shoe-horning minimal conditions in March,  trying to make a snowstorm.  Last year we had 35degs. with falling temps. (to 20) on a fresh batch of cold air, no needle threading needed.  I say, enjoy the sleet.

[allgame830]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

There are too many models and from where I sit the one referenced is out on its own now, isn't it? And is it even any good? For that matter, how good are any of them?

the RGEM is beginning to get in its wheelhouse now.  The GFS I never took that seriously.  Even the NAM is pretty good for the area.  I really only see issues for the south shore into E LI then down through C NJ southward.  the city itself may only end up with 6-8" but that a major achievement in March.... and anywhere North and West of there is game on for a foot plus!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

People take those clown maps way too seriously. We saw with the last storm that they are highly inaccurate. I also wouldn't use the GFS thermals, ever. If I had a choice between nothing and the GFS I would give nothing more weight.

Exactly, thank you. The gfs is a major hit from manhattan north and west. The island and central jersey are the question marks. Let’s see what the euro does 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, RDRY said:

Canadiens vs. Americans.

The NAM model (which is American) produced plenty of snow. It's just the GFS which is the worst model on the planet. Remember for the February snowstorm we had a few weeks ago, GFS claimed you had to go to northwest NJ to get accumulating snow. It completely missed the snowstorm for NYC. GFS is an embarrassment.

[Animal]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Nail that coffin shut for CNJ on south, OUCH. Been 2+ years for a 10”+ storm for me, this one isn’t going to deliver. Far NW should cash in though. 

Nice snows nw nj

[nzucker]

2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Look at it this way:

If all you knew was the probability of precipitation is 100% on some wintertime day in NYC-----is there any day that a pure snow event would evolve from whatever setup was producing that precip., that would have at least a 50% chance of being all snow?

Not even sure Feb. 01 cuts it and we are shoe-horning minimal conditions in March,  trying to make a snowstorm.  Last year we had 35degs. with falling temps. (to 20) on a fresh batch of cold air, no needle threading needed.  I say, enjoy the sleet.

Again, it's not about the time of year. It's the track of the H7 and H85 lows that is at issue here. The GFS takes the mid-level lows JUST southeast of the City, leading to potential dryslot and mixing issues. It's not awful, but it's not ideal. The colder models like the GGEM/RGEM/ECM keep everything further offshore, placing NYC in the CCB. It's a close call.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Look at it this way:

If all you knew was the probability of precipitation is 100% on some wintertime day in NYC-----is there any day that a pure snow event would evolve from whatever setup was producing that precip., that would have at least a 50% chance of being all snow?

Not even sure Feb. 01 cuts it and we are shoe-horning minimal conditions in March,  trying to make a snowstorm.  Last year we had 35degs. with falling temps. (to 20) on a fresh batch of cold air, no needle threading needed.  I say, enjoy the sleet.

Well we had that nose of warm air, same in March 2007. Not sure what will muck it up this time.

[mikem81]

CMC turns east northeast just in time. GFS clearly did not. Will come down to where the LP makes the scoot east/northeast. 

[RU848789]

14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No it wouldn't. This isn't a cold air issue, it's a track issue.

Agreed. And the GFS, while maybe having lousy thermal algorithms, has been right before on track vs. other models (Jan 15 stands out), so with this and the NAM also making a significant jog NW, a rainfest for 95 is now on the table.  Kind of easy to dismiss one model, but not 2 of 3 (if we count the RDPS as a snowy model).