USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z RGEMThat's a big hitSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM That looks great even for the north shore of LI through NYC and west and north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Looking at Pivotal...the RGEM is colder than its run at 0Z and 6Z - but not as snowy east of the city It’s actually better further east if you compare clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 RGEM puts almost all of Long Island into the heavy snows. It was city-west on 6z. This is per TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: On the B&W maps it appears, as compared to the 0Z RGEM, the mid levels centers are further west. Trend aint our friend RGEM is a big hit for most of the sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I strongly advise against using the Kuchera method for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I strongly advise against using the Kuchera method for this system. 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I strongly advise against using the Kuchera method for this system. Why, too high or too low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 West/east only matters to an extent with this one, it could be going over the Delmarva/S NJ, but at some point it is going to make a hard cut right due to the Neg NAO, and what latitude that happens is very important. I think from what I am seeing, as long as you are North of around the Raritan River and west of the east river you are in pretty good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Why, too high or too low? too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: too high. How is it too high? Compare the maps I posted. You think ratios will be less than 5:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: too high. kuchera is printing out lower totals.....so if you dont wanna use kuchera...ur assuming its too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I strongly advise against using the Kuchera method for this system. You're not right. The Kuchera method normally pumps up ratios and inflates accumulations. As you can see by the snowmaps posted above, the Kuchera method may actually be useful here, as it may take into account the LOWER snow ratios this storm may produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Blizz said: 10:1 I understand that ratios are actually lower with the Kucheara method, however I actually believe that even 10:1 for this storm is too low for inland areas. Whomever gets under that intense lift will see a period of 3-4" per hour rates, although that shouldn't persist over any one location for more than a few hours. The storm is somewhat of a fast mover once the actual SLP get here, however we have several hours of WAA precip before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, mike1984 said: Snowstorms are usually big hits. Ok, I'll buy that. Just thought of a big hit as being a foot or more, which seemed to be on the table with these models last night. 4-8 is rather run of the mill, especially if it's closer to 4 ( it is around 6 for me on that map, and I almost never reach the high end ) which is nice given the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: too high. Not in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Why, too high or too low? 4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: too high. 1 minute ago, Blizz said: How is it too high? Compare the maps I posted. You think ratios will be less than 5:1? See my later post, I believe that 10:1 is too low in a lot of areas. For example I find it hard to believe that only 9-10" would fall over most of the interior with well over 1" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I understand that ratios are actually lower with the Kucheara method, however I actually believe that even 10:1 for this storm is too low for inland areas. Whomever gets under that intense lift will see a period of 3-4" per hour rates, although that shouldn't persist over any one location for more than a few hours. The storm is somewhat of a fast mover once the actual SLP get here, however we have several hours of WAA precip before that. Excellent post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I understand that ratios are actually lower with the Kucheara method, however I actually believe that even 10:1 for this storm is too low for inland areas. Whomever gets under that intense lift will see a period of 3-4" per hour rates, although that shouldn't persist over any one location for more than a few hours. The storm is somewhat of a fast mover once the actual SLP get here, however we have several hours of WAA precip before that. Fine. Then use the Kuchera maps for the NYC area and the 10:1 maps for your area. Both maps may have some use in a snowstorm like this. It may not be a one size fits all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: ? A big hit produces a storm. A storm is never going to be from a small hit. Wouldn’t be a storm just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Ok, I'll buy that. Just thought of a big hit as being a foot or more, which seemed to be on the table with these models last night. 4-8 is rather run of the mill, especially if it's closer to 4 ( it is around 6 for me on that map, and I almost never reach the high end ) which is nice given the time of year. Still a powerful storm..as you say for this time of year as well. Areas will see close to or exceed a foot. That’s a big storm, imo. Just not as widespread as models have been indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: You do realize that in 150 years of record keeping that nyc has gotten 12” or more in 36 storms the regency bias here is unreal This argument was settled awhile ago. Not going to rehash it. But Unc W would disagree with that ( now he may not have gone back as far TBH). I think you mean regional bias, and I will plead guilty to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 you can already see the GFS is going west....the low in the north atlantic is further west....forcing our storm further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Metrogram rgem has over 40 mm as snow for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 at 24hrs is inland over the Delmarva...sighhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Metrogram rgem has over 40 mm as snow for nyc it was over 50 3 straight runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, weatherlogix said: at 24hrs is inland over the Delmarva...sighhhhhh RGEM also was and still ended up being great. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Its ugly for NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 at 24hrs is inland over the Delmarva...sighhhhhhThat could actually be positive for the tri state. As was mentioned by a couple persons yesterday... An earlier touch with land would mean a quicker phase thus quicker occlusion. This in turn keeps the area colder and the end shunt farther to our south. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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