BxEngine Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Looks like we're going to storm mode early. Christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 anyone know how this map is processed...i finded it hard to believe POU gets 2 " with that precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: anyone know how this map is processed...i finded it hard to believe POU gets 2 " with that precip I no longer use TT for snow maps. Here's the 3k everyone is crying about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: anyone know how this map is processed...i finded it hard to believe POU gets 2 " with that precip supposed to cut down on bogus sleet accumulations being reported as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: anyone know how this map is processed...i finded it hard to believe POU gets 2 " with that precip It's used to cut down on bogus snow accumulation maps when sleet and warmer type solutions are on the table. This imo is a rain or snow type ordeal, so wouldn't put much if any stock into it. It was derived from Brad Ferrier. Cohen explains it in an article pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: supposed to cut down on bogus sleet accumulations being reported as snow HAH! Beat me to it by a minute lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 May not be what people want to hear and it is just one opinion but I thought I would throw it out there. From the New England thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 25 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Verbatim that NAM is a brief period of snow to heavy rain, to dryslot, to maybe a period of snow after the dryslot where we are. Would be at most 2 or 3” of slop that odds are would be washed away in the heavy rain. We’re still close so a little east of that track might be OK here, but it’s concerning this close in that the NAM is trending west like this. considering the time of year and the marginal temps I doubt we get 2-3" if it rains...if the nam is right and I put little stock in that model, we will get little to nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: anyone know how this map is processed...i finded it hard to believe POU gets 2 " with that precip It tries to add a dose of reality, but it's way overdone. Western Mass has zero issues that will affect accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: anyone know how this map is processed...i finded it hard to believe POU gets 2 " with that precip I posted it yesterday, it accounts for white rain, sleet and non-accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: anyone know how this map is processed...i finded it hard to believe POU gets 2 " with that precip If I recall correctly, that map showed 2" snow for Albany with the last storm. Instead, 11.9" fell there. I'd use it with a lot of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Rgem is colder and mostly snow for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The Ferrier method is much better than Kuchera... both historically and based on the synoptics of that 3km NAM solution. If you look at the soundings, POU gets dryslotted in the mid-levels. You generally need a saturated cloud layer colder than about -8C or -10C for reliable activation of ice nuclei, so in the following sounding, there might not be an adequate source of ice crystals to see significant snow. There is plenty of lift around -4C so that may well be straight rain, despite what the #prettycolors say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 RGEM is colder and snowier for the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem is colder and mostly snow for the city But it's not the monster is was at 0Z and 6Z, correct? Nassau is not all snow, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, weatherlogix said: But it's not the monster is was at 0Z and 6Z, correct? Nassau is not all snow, correct? Central LI east is a mix and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: considering the time of year and the marginal temps I doubt we get 2-3" if it rains...if the nam is right and I put little stock in that model, we will get little to nothing... We probably would get some snow on the front end for a couple of hours. 850 temps are cold to start. But as the 700/850 lows approach and winds turn more easterly, the column would warm up pretty fast and we go to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We probably would get some snow on the front end for a couple of hours. 850 temps are cold to start. But as the 700/850 lows approach and winds turn more easterly, the column would warm up pretty fast and we go to rain. and this was the model that gave us anywhere from 6-15" of snow from the last storm up until the last nano-second. We wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 On the B&W maps it appears, as compared to the 0Z RGEM, the mid levels centers are further west. Trend aint our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Rgem has 6+ for the whole NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Just now, weatherlogix said: On the B&W maps it appears, as compared to the 0Z RGEM, the mid levels centers are further west. Trend aint our friend Still way better than the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem has 6+ for the whole NYC area again, as per the B&W it looks like 50+MM of precip - if that equates to 6"+ there is a lot of precip falling as other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 I put the crankywxguy post in the Vendor thread, please use that for posts about crankywxguy, DT, TV mets, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 The problem with the models is that the low gets elongated and occludes. Not sure where it will happen, but makes a huge difference for NYC area. Eastern LI looks screwed at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Looking at Pivotal...the RGEM is colder than its run at 0Z and 6Z - but not as snowy east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 Seems like the meso scale models keep bouncing around as they can’t decide if the area of lowest pressure should be where the convection is to the east or an area closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z RGEMThat's a big hitSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM That looks great even for the north shore of LI through NYC and west and north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 12z German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.