EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 7 hours ago, Rjay said: If anything now I am more concerned about a miss to the east. EPS has been trending east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Really looks similar to 12/30/00 on some of the guidance overnight. Great storm. Traveled over New Haven CT and we still remained all snow right up to New Haven. Very cold system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: That storm dropped a foot or more in parts of the area... you really think it’s going to be similar to that?? 15 inches fell in sw coastal CT. Good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, 02-03 was arguably our greatest winter of the 2000's decade. Agreed. We have been very spoiled this century so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm gets underway in the morning giving the temps a chance to rise more than forecast before it begins. The Euro Has mid 30's for Long Island right into the evening. I think it obviously comes down to snowfall intensity. In the noreaster of Feb 1995 sw coastal CT received a foot with 35 degree temps due to intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 NAM looks terrific for nyc and east. Snowy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: NAM looks terrific for nyc and east. Snowy run. Clips the area. If anything since this system is so compact would want it closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Clips the area. If anything since this system is so compact would want it closer to the coast All snow Nice position this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Clips the area. If anything since this system is so compact would want it closer to the coast NAM is 3-6” verbatim city east, with the rain snow line 200 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: All snow Nice position this far out I think since this storm is so compact that a track closer in would allow for more intense rates. Dec 2000 was a good example of a storm crossing long island and giving the area a lot of snow. Given how compact I think a bigger concern is it being too far east than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovewinter Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Was this originally Tues night-Wed (or am I mis-remembering)? But now seems like it’s more Wed-Wed night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Don't think this escapes east. Look at H5, if there wasn't a block in eastern Canada this is a cutter. I'd be more worried the block trends weaker allowing a track over the area. Or maybe we hit the sweet spot, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Don't think this escapes east. Look at H5, if there wasn't a block in eastern Canada this is a cutter. I'd be more worried the block trends weaker allowing a track over the area. Or maybe we hit the sweet spot, who knows. Spin the weather model wheel at this point since each model has a different track. Root for a slower less tucked track like the NAM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Spin the weather model wheel at this point since each model has a different track. Root for a slower less tucked track like the NAM has. The NAM buries us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, psv88 said: The NAM buries us. The NAM timing and track would be perfect for Long Island. But let's see what the other models come up with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 At least the nam has a storm, it is however out of it's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 A very good met in the New England forum, coastalwx explained that the EPO is less important in March due to shortening wavelengths.Thank you.. Ill look that upSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 We need the storm track further west so NJ can cash in. Right now it looks like a nyc east special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, snow1 said: We need the storm track further west so NJ can cash in. Right now it looks like a nyc east special Then we might have temp issues. This doesn't seem like a storm that can make the whole subforum happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 The NAM has some pretty impressive convective heavy snow potential with mid-level lapse rates closer to a summer EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The NAM has some pretty impressive convective heavy snow potential with mid-level lapse rates closer to a summer EML. was literally about to post the same thing. that + the rapidly deepening mid levels suggests a high potential for heavy snow banding in the afternoon. RGEM also appears to be on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 How is the QPF with this upcoming storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: was literally about to post the same thing. that + the rapidly deepening mid levels suggests a high potential for heavy snow banding in the afternoon. RGEM also appears to be on board. Yeah, that's a great heavy snow banding signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 12z ggem is a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 GFS is hot and heavy...very close to blizzard conditions for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: GFS is hot and heavy...very close to blizzard conditions for the city. It looks like the UKMET may be similar. But the details on these early maps are lacking. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, snow1 said: 12z ggem is a whiff Stop copying what new England forum has to say. You dont even know where that model is...And for now anything is on the table. I am a bit worried that we could have a solution where the storm never fully phases and it escapes out to sea because the nao starts rebounding to almost neutral to positive. But than again I've seen storms where after a very negative nao as it started bouncing to almost positive we had very big storms just like after a very cold snap as it tried to warm up. I think the one snow goose was mentioning before. That one buried central park with 12 inches if my memory is still there. Some parts of queens got over 2 feet of snow. It was a quick hitting storm it might have been a bit colder but the potential here for 6-12 inches for NYC is there. I am concerned that my favorite model cmc is an out to sea depiction. GFS is a crappy model but here it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, snow1 said: How far west is the big snows on the gfs? It has the heaviest from West central nj up through CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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